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Academic Publications
Academic Publications
4. When Access Meets Emissions: Electricity-Environment Trade-offs, and Policy Pathways for Africa
4. When Access Meets Emissions: Electricity-Environment Trade-offs, and Policy Pathways for Africa
(with Subhanil Banerjee and Souren Koner)
(with Subhanil Banerjee and Souren Koner)
Abstract: This study examines whether increasing access to electricity raises per capita carbon dioxide emissions in Africa and how this relationship varies across the emissions distribution. Using a country-level annual panel dataset for 53 African countries from 2007 to 2020, we employ the Novel Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to account for cross-country heterogeneity, non-normality, and distributional differences. Our results show that access to electricity raises emissions at all quantiles. The effect is considerably stronger in countries with higher emissions. This convex pattern indicates that electrification based on fossil fuels generates disproportionate environmental impacts in more carbon-intensive countries. Granger non-causality test has been applied to observe predictive precedence from electricity access to emissions, the broader results identify a robust and statistically meaningful predictive precedence. Since Granger non-causality does not directly refer to structural causality, Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto test has been applied and it confirms structural causation from access to electricity to per capita CO2 emission. The robustness of these findings is confirmed using 21 alternative estimators. These results highlight an important policy challenge: Africa’s progress toward expanding electricity access under the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 may conflict with emissions-reduction commitments under SDG 13 unless clean energy investments scale rapidly. Thus, this study provides new continent-wide, distribution-sensitive evidence to guide policymakers and development partners in aligning electrification strategies with low-carbon transitions.
Abstract: This study examines whether increasing access to electricity raises per capita carbon dioxide emissions in Africa and how this relationship varies across the emissions distribution. Using a country-level annual panel dataset for 53 African countries from 2007 to 2020, we employ the Novel Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to account for cross-country heterogeneity, non-normality, and distributional differences. Our results show that access to electricity raises emissions at all quantiles. The effect is considerably stronger in countries with higher emissions. This convex pattern indicates that electrification based on fossil fuels generates disproportionate environmental impacts in more carbon-intensive countries. Granger non-causality test has been applied to observe predictive precedence from electricity access to emissions, the broader results identify a robust and statistically meaningful predictive precedence. Since Granger non-causality does not directly refer to structural causality, Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto test has been applied and it confirms structural causation from access to electricity to per capita CO2 emission. The robustness of these findings is confirmed using 21 alternative estimators. These results highlight an important policy challenge: Africa’s progress toward expanding electricity access under the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 may conflict with emissions-reduction commitments under SDG 13 unless clean energy investments scale rapidly. Thus, this study provides new continent-wide, distribution-sensitive evidence to guide policymakers and development partners in aligning electrification strategies with low-carbon transitions.
(with J. Zhang, E. Malikov, and R. Miao)
(with J. Zhang, E. Malikov, and R. Miao)
Abstract: Geography is a salient feature in agricultural adaptation to a warming climate. Facing heterogeneous natural-resource and climatic endowments, farmers in different locations choose adaptive strategies that are best suited to their environments, resulting in inhomogeneous adaptation across space. We provide novel evidence of this explicitly spatial heterogeneity in heat sensitivity of US crop yields and their adaptation thereto. We generalize a popular long-differences approach by explicitly incorporating geographic information of crop-producing counties in a semiparametric fashion, using local kernel averaging. This lets us control for spatially clustered local heterogeneity that may be non-neutral in that it moderates climate effects on agriculture. Obtained measurements of historical adaptation are also more granular and account for local contexts, as do projected yield changes due to climate change. We find that corn and soybean adaptation to overheat mainly occurred in the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. There is a geographic bifurcation in expected climate change effects by the mid-century, with some regions projected to experience large yield declines and others to benefit from significant yield gains. Considering the net offset potential of this bifurcation, our average yield impact projections are generally smaller relative to traditional approaches.
Abstract: Geography is a salient feature in agricultural adaptation to a warming climate. Facing heterogeneous natural-resource and climatic endowments, farmers in different locations choose adaptive strategies that are best suited to their environments, resulting in inhomogeneous adaptation across space. We provide novel evidence of this explicitly spatial heterogeneity in heat sensitivity of US crop yields and their adaptation thereto. We generalize a popular long-differences approach by explicitly incorporating geographic information of crop-producing counties in a semiparametric fashion, using local kernel averaging. This lets us control for spatially clustered local heterogeneity that may be non-neutral in that it moderates climate effects on agriculture. Obtained measurements of historical adaptation are also more granular and account for local contexts, as do projected yield changes due to climate change. We find that corn and soybean adaptation to overheat mainly occurred in the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. There is a geographic bifurcation in expected climate change effects by the mid-century, with some regions projected to experience large yield declines and others to benefit from significant yield gains. Considering the net offset potential of this bifurcation, our average yield impact projections are generally smaller relative to traditional approaches.
2. Crop Insurance Premium Subsidy and Irrigation Water Withdrawals in the Western United States [PDF]
2. Crop Insurance Premium Subsidy and Irrigation Water Withdrawals in the Western United States [PDF]
Abstract: We estimate the effects of the federal crop insurance premium subsidy on freshwater withdrawals for irrigation among U.S. counties to the west of the 100th meridian. Our results indicate that a 1% increase in premium subsidy leads to a 0.446% (about 475,901 acre-feet/year) and 0.673% (about 474,026 acre-feet/year) increase in total freshwater withdrawals for irrigation and fresh surface water withdrawals for irrigation, respectively. The elasticity of total freshwater withdrawals for irrigation and fresh surface water withdrawals for irrigation with respect to revenue insurance premium subsidy is more than twice as large as those with respect to yield insurance premium subsidy. Groundwater withdrawals for irrigation are not found to be responsive to crop insurance premium subsidy. Because the elasticities are all non-negative, moral hazard should not be a dominant factor in the relationship between crop insurance subsidies and freshwater withdrawals for irrigation. Thus, exploring the causal relationship between crop insurance premium subsidy and agricultural input uses, this study underscores the unintended effect of the federal crop insurance program on water resource sustainability in the U.S.
Abstract: We estimate the effects of the federal crop insurance premium subsidy on freshwater withdrawals for irrigation among U.S. counties to the west of the 100th meridian. Our results indicate that a 1% increase in premium subsidy leads to a 0.446% (about 475,901 acre-feet/year) and 0.673% (about 474,026 acre-feet/year) increase in total freshwater withdrawals for irrigation and fresh surface water withdrawals for irrigation, respectively. The elasticity of total freshwater withdrawals for irrigation and fresh surface water withdrawals for irrigation with respect to revenue insurance premium subsidy is more than twice as large as those with respect to yield insurance premium subsidy. Groundwater withdrawals for irrigation are not found to be responsive to crop insurance premium subsidy. Because the elasticities are all non-negative, moral hazard should not be a dominant factor in the relationship between crop insurance subsidies and freshwater withdrawals for irrigation. Thus, exploring the causal relationship between crop insurance premium subsidy and agricultural input uses, this study underscores the unintended effect of the federal crop insurance program on water resource sustainability in the U.S.
1. Effect of Wind Turbines on Bird Abundance: A National Scale Analysis Based on Fixed Effects Models [PDF]
1. Effect of Wind Turbines on Bird Abundance: A National Scale Analysis Based on Fixed Effects Models [PDF]
Energy Policy, Volume 132, September 2019, Pages 357-366
(with Ruiqing Miao, Madhu Khanna, Weiwei Wang, and Jian Rong)
Abstract: We examine the impact of wind turbines on breeding bird abundance by using a fine scale, spatial longitudinal dataset for 1,670 wind turbines and 86 bird observation routes located in 36 states in the United States over 2008–2014. We find that the establishment of one additional wind turbine, on average, leads to disappearance of about three breeding birds. The aggregate effect of the U.S. on-shore wind turbines on breeding bird count is 151,630, a magnitude at the lower end of existing estimates that range between 20,000 and 573,000. We also find that turbine size is a critical determinant of the magnitude of this impact, with turbine tower height positively, but blade length negatively, associated with aggregate breeding bird abundance. Grassland breeding bird abundance increases by up to 0.81 following the establishment of an additional wind turbine, although it is insensitive to tower height or blade length. Our findings provide important implications for policies related to wind facility siting and wind turbine development that can enhance the sustainability of wind energy.
Abstract: We examine the impact of wind turbines on breeding bird abundance by using a fine scale, spatial longitudinal dataset for 1,670 wind turbines and 86 bird observation routes located in 36 states in the United States over 2008–2014. We find that the establishment of one additional wind turbine, on average, leads to disappearance of about three breeding birds. The aggregate effect of the U.S. on-shore wind turbines on breeding bird count is 151,630, a magnitude at the lower end of existing estimates that range between 20,000 and 573,000. We also find that turbine size is a critical determinant of the magnitude of this impact, with turbine tower height positively, but blade length negatively, associated with aggregate breeding bird abundance. Grassland breeding bird abundance increases by up to 0.81 following the establishment of an additional wind turbine, although it is insensitive to tower height or blade length. Our findings provide important implications for policies related to wind facility siting and wind turbine development that can enhance the sustainability of wind energy.
Other Publications
Other Publications
2. Wind Energy and Birds: Taller Turbines with Shorter Blades Are More Friendly to Breeding Birds [Link]
2. Wind Energy and Birds: Taller Turbines with Shorter Blades Are More Friendly to Breeding Birds [Link]
PolicyMatters, July 9, 2019
(with Ruiqing Miao, and Madhu Khanna)
1. Valuing Groundwater Resources in Arid Watersheds under Climate Change: A Framework and Estimates for the Upper Rio Grande
1. Valuing Groundwater Resources in Arid Watersheds under Climate Change: A Framework and Estimates for the Upper Rio Grande
(with Brian Hurd)
Proceedings of the Western Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Big Sky, MT, June 2008. Available at Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (JARE), December 2008 issue.
Work-in-Progress
Work-in-Progress
4. The impact of Clean Fuel and Technology for cooking on per capita CO2 emission: A novel MM Quantile Regression Approach
4. The impact of Clean Fuel and Technology for cooking on per capita CO2 emission: A novel MM Quantile Regression Approach
(with Subhanil Banerjee, Souren Koner, and Sumantra Bhattacharya )
Abstract: Using clean fuel and technology is advised from the perspective of reducing the emanation of fumes such as carbon dioxide into the aerosphere. The traditional fuel and technology comprising fossil fuels and Coal-based ovens, Kerosene-based stoves, and others are highly discouraged as they have a higher emission rate and are a hindrance to attaining Sustainable Development Goal Seven by the set deadline of 2030. From this perspective, the present article empirically evaluates the effect of clean fuel and technology for cooking on per capita carbon dioxide gas emission at the global level, which is missing from the existing literature. The article considers data on relevant variables from 105 countries of the world from 2001 to 2020 and uses a novel method of moments quantile regression (MMQR), proving that clean fuel and technology actually lead to higher emissions of per capita Carbon dioxide gas. The findings are absolutely against the usual belief and existing literature, and that is the novelty of the article. From the policy perspective, the article suggests decoupling the production of electricity, which is announced as a clean fuel by the United Nations, from fossil fuels like coal and petroleum.
3. The Planetary Pressure Adjusted Human Development Index: An empirical critique of the construct
3. The Planetary Pressure Adjusted Human Development Index: An empirical critique of the construct
(with Subhanil Banerjee , Souren Koner , and Sumantra Bhattacharya )
Abstract: This article leads a critical quest considering 114 countries of the world from 1990- 2022 towards the long due empirical evaluation of the planetary pressure-adjusted human development index (PHDI). The said experimental index is in existence for last few years, however no scholar made an attempt to empirically evaluate its logical and mathematical construct till date. The said index is an optimization of Human Development Index (HDI) constrained by nine planetary boundaries. The present article evaluates the logical and mathematical construct of PHDI through the novel method of moments quantile regression (MMQR). The PHDI has been considered as the dependent variable. The CO2 emissions and material footprint per capita and total population of the country have been taken as independent variables. The analysis justifies the positioning of CO2 per capita in PHDI but refutes the same for material footprint. This is the first time that PHDI has been empirically evaluated and also pointed out the embedded lacuna in its logical and mathematical construct that makes the present article a novel addition to the existing literature.
2. Climate-Adaptive City Pilot Policy and Big Data Innovation: Insights from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China
(with Xiaohui Chen, Zhao Li, Yongjing Gao, Gongjun Yan, Hong Li, and Yan Peng)
Abstract: In response to climate change, China has introduced the Climate-Adaptive City Pilot Policy (CACPP), which is a form of environmental regulation. However, existing literature presents conflicting perspectives on the relationship between environmental regulation and technological innovation, overlooking how CACPP specifically influences enterprises. This study investigates both the direct and indirect effects of CACPP on big data technology innovation across all Chinese cities. Our findings suggest that CACPP significantly fosters advancements in big data technology. This conclusion is robust, supported by parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and propensity score matching. Additionally, we identify indirect effects, revealing that CACPP enhances innovation in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and entrepreneurship, which capitalize on the extensive data generated and stored by big data systems. These results reveal the intricate relationship between CACPP and technological innovation, with China serving as a case study.
1. Leveraging Digital Economy for Green Agriculture: A Provincial Panel Data Analysis from Rural China
1. Leveraging Digital Economy for Green Agriculture: A Provincial Panel Data Analysis from Rural China
(with WenHong Li, Gongjun Yan and W. Chen)
Abstract: While several studies have examined the relationship between the digital economy and emissions, there is still controversy whether the digital economy leads to a reduction in emissions. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms through which the digital economy influences emissions remain unclear. We, therefore, empirically investigate the effects of agricultural digitization on agricultural carbon emission in China, focusing on two key questions: Can digitalization contribute to reducing agricultural carbon emissions? If so, what mechanisms facilitate this reduction? We analyze provincial panel data from 2008 to 2021 employing fixed effects-instrumental variable (FE-IV) approach. Our results indicate a significant negative association between agricultural digitization and carbon emissions in agriculture. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in digitization index, on average, leads to a reduction of 0.0204 tons per capita (or 20.47 kilograms per capita) in carbon emissions in rural China, holding all other things constant. Additionally, this study finds that agricultural digitization promotes green technology innovation and digital financial development, both contributing to the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions. By elucidating the causal linkages between agricultural digitization and agricultural carbon emissions, this study underscores the pivotal role of digital technologies in promoting sustainable agriculture and mitigating global warming.
Inactive Manuscripts
Inactive Manuscripts
3. Tuition Discounting at U.S. Land Grant Universities: A Supply-Demand Analysis
3. Tuition Discounting at U.S. Land Grant Universities: A Supply-Demand Analysis
(with Henry W. Kinnucan, and Patricia Duffy)
Abstract: This study examines whether the 1862 land grant universities that do better in the U.S. News and World Report’s (USNWR) rankings really have the ability to charge higher tuition and offer less financial aid than institutions that do less well in the rankings. Developing a demand-supply framework to deduce relevant hypotheses, and drawing relevant data from multiple sources from 2005-2017, we find that parameters estimated using a generalized linear model (GLM) suggest each one unit improvement in national ranking is associated with an increase in (a) inflation adjusted in-state sticker price by 0.33% to entering undergraduates, (b) inflation adjusted out-of-state sticker price by 0.35% to entering undergraduates, and (c) inflation adjusted financial aid per undergraduate student by 0.33%. In addition, each one unit improvement in the USNWR ranking score is associated with more increase in the inflation adjusted out-of-state sticker price relative to its in-state counterpart across the1862 land grant universities.
Abstract: This study examines whether the 1862 land grant universities that do better in the U.S. News and World Report’s (USNWR) rankings really have the ability to charge higher tuition and offer less financial aid than institutions that do less well in the rankings. Developing a demand-supply framework to deduce relevant hypotheses, and drawing relevant data from multiple sources from 2005-2017, we find that parameters estimated using a generalized linear model (GLM) suggest each one unit improvement in national ranking is associated with an increase in (a) inflation adjusted in-state sticker price by 0.33% to entering undergraduates, (b) inflation adjusted out-of-state sticker price by 0.35% to entering undergraduates, and (c) inflation adjusted financial aid per undergraduate student by 0.33%. In addition, each one unit improvement in the USNWR ranking score is associated with more increase in the inflation adjusted out-of-state sticker price relative to its in-state counterpart across the1862 land grant universities.
2. Allocation of Resources Under Increasing Returns to Scale: A Supply Side Input-Output Model
2. Allocation of Resources Under Increasing Returns to Scale: A Supply Side Input-Output Model
Abstract: This study extends a theoretical model of a planned economy developed by Ghosh (1958) in which different sectors are under monopoly control and all except one resource is scarce. In our model, the price ratios between the two consecutive time periods across sectors reveal the importance of increasing returns to scale of the factors of production across sectors. Our model suggests that if government policy forces a sector to generate more jobs while the sector is unable to increase marginal productivity of the factors of production then to cover the production costs market price needs to get manipulated in the upward direction. However, in a perfectly competitive market it is not possible at all. As a result, the sector will be closed and the inter-industry input which was being produced by the sector will have to be imported from outside of the economy to mitigate this “quantity bottle-neck”. Otherwise, it will lead the economy towards decrease in the demand for consumer goods caused by increase in rate of unemployment in the system. In this situation, the model suggests that economic researchers need to find the actual price ratios between two consecutive time periods to get maximum welfare in a general equilibrium framework.
Abstract: This study extends a theoretical model of a planned economy developed by Ghosh (1958) in which different sectors are under monopoly control and all except one resource is scarce. In our model, the price ratios between the two consecutive time periods across sectors reveal the importance of increasing returns to scale of the factors of production across sectors. Our model suggests that if government policy forces a sector to generate more jobs while the sector is unable to increase marginal productivity of the factors of production then to cover the production costs market price needs to get manipulated in the upward direction. However, in a perfectly competitive market it is not possible at all. As a result, the sector will be closed and the inter-industry input which was being produced by the sector will have to be imported from outside of the economy to mitigate this “quantity bottle-neck”. Otherwise, it will lead the economy towards decrease in the demand for consumer goods caused by increase in rate of unemployment in the system. In this situation, the model suggests that economic researchers need to find the actual price ratios between two consecutive time periods to get maximum welfare in a general equilibrium framework.
(with Tannista Banerjee and Valentina M. Hartarska)
Abstract: This study examines likely association of a county’s exposure to Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to China, and the Great Recession with obesity among middle-aged population in the United States. The U.S. Public Health Service has been considering obesity as the major public health concern for the last two decades. No study, however, has investigated how profound and persistent economic shocks have been affecting obesity in the United States in the last two decades. Analyzing county level unbalanced panel data from 2004 to 2013, we find that, ceteris paribus, 1% increase in a county’s exposer to the PNTR, on average, is associated with a decrease in per capita obesity in a county by 0.18%. However, 1% increase in the interaction term of the PNTR and the Great Recession, on average, raises per capita obesity by 0.035%. Overall, results suggest that, in terms of obesity, rural counties are equally affected by the PNTR and Great Recession relative to the rest of the United States. Results also suggest that PNTR does not have long term effect on per capita obesity in the post-great recession era.
Abstract: This study examines likely association of a county’s exposure to Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to China, and the Great Recession with obesity among middle-aged population in the United States. The U.S. Public Health Service has been considering obesity as the major public health concern for the last two decades. No study, however, has investigated how profound and persistent economic shocks have been affecting obesity in the United States in the last two decades. Analyzing county level unbalanced panel data from 2004 to 2013, we find that, ceteris paribus, 1% increase in a county’s exposer to the PNTR, on average, is associated with a decrease in per capita obesity in a county by 0.18%. However, 1% increase in the interaction term of the PNTR and the Great Recession, on average, raises per capita obesity by 0.035%. Overall, results suggest that, in terms of obesity, rural counties are equally affected by the PNTR and Great Recession relative to the rest of the United States. Results also suggest that PNTR does not have long term effect on per capita obesity in the post-great recession era.
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