A banner hangs over a storefront in Los Angeles, Calif., where a winning lottery ticket was sold last summer. Billion-dollar lottery jackpots are not as rare as they once were. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images  hide caption

If you like to daydream about what you'd do with a billion-dollar payday, big lotteries are giving you more chances than ever. Eye-popping jackpots are much more common now, fueled by higher interest rates and other factors.


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"Human beings just fundamentally have a very, very difficult time understanding risk when we have things that are very, very rare," economics professor Victor Matheson of the College of the Holy Cross told NPR.

The what-ifs of sudden wealth are on many Americans' minds again this week, as Mega Millions forecast its jackpot at nearly $1 billion. The next drawing is set for 11 p.m. ET on Friday. If a winner emerges, it would be one of the largest jackpots ever for Mega Millions, which has had five previous jackpots top $1 billion.

Lottery jackpots are soaring past the billion-dollar mark more frequently, thanks to higher interest rates and several rules changes. Here, a ticket machine displays the projected jackpot for a Mega Millions drawing in Chicago, in early January. Scott Olson/Getty Images  hide caption

"They essentially signed a truce," Matheson says. And with all but five U.S. states now operating lotteries, he adds, "what this means is you've got 300 million potential buyers all contributing to that pool."

Lotteries play on a human desire to dream big. But while humans are good at developing an intuitive sense for how likely risks and rewards are within their own experience, those skills don't translate very well to the immense scope of lotteries.

As an example, he points to that shift in how the two big lotteries work. On an intuitive level, it makes no difference when a lottery goes from offering a 1-in-175 million chance of winning to a 1-in-300 million chance.

"One of the major criticisms of lotteries in general is that they prey upon the poor by selling them hope," Matheson says. "And for things like scratch-off tickets, we know that they are predominantly bought by lower income individuals."

A huge jackpot changes the demographic, drawing ticket-buyers from a wide range of incomes. The result, Matheson says, is that lotteries with large jackpots can be seen as "a more progressive lottery ticket option than most of the things that we typically see being sold by lotteries."

Matheson sums it up: "The excitement really isn't there, and the dreaming about what you would do [if you won] isn't there with a scratch-off ticket in the same way that it is with a Mega Millions ticket with a gigantic jackpot."

"It really is a purely entertainment product," Matheson says of the lottery. "As soon as people start thinking of it as an investment product, that's a problem because it's an investment with a huge negative return on average."

The fortune of a lifetime is waiting to be claimed by a lucky winner in the Mega Millions lottery, which has ballooned to a record $1.58 billion. If it seems like such massive jackpots are occurring more frequently these days, it's not your imagination.

Including Tuesday's upcoming drawing, there have been about half a dozen jackpots that have exceeded $1 billion during the past five years, according to College of the Holy Cross economics professor Victor Matheson.

And the huge winnings aren't happening by chance, Matheson told CBS News earlier this year. The Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), a not-for-profit that coordinates the Mega Millions, has engineered the game to generate even larger sums, he noted.

As the Washington Post reported in 2018, the new rules also gave Mega Millions participants more numbers to choose from, making it tougher to guess the combination needed to win the jackpot. Mega Millions is played in 45 states along with Washington, D.C., and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The massive winnings also induce more people to buy tickets, adding to the jackpot. Americans are 15 times more likely to buy a ticket when the lottery's winnings climb toward $1 billion versus when the prize winnings are just $20 million, he said.

"To put it into perspective, the typical person who is a golfer would have about a 1-in-15,000 chance in making a hole-in-one on a particular hole," Matheson said. "So winning the Powerball or the Mega Millions is like getting two hole-in-ones in a row when playing golf."

The days of quickly rising profits for Illinois` lottery have passed, as the game faces increased out-of-state competition and fewer new players, state officials said Monday while issuing a report that shows lottery revenue falling below expectations.Lottery sales are still growing, with $1.35 billion in tickets bought in the year ending June 30, compared with $1.28 billion the previous year. But an absence of huge pots, coupled with cuts in spending for advertising and the lack of new games, have combined to produce lower profits, said David Mizuer, the lottery`s deputy director of finance.

As lottery fever spreads in neighboring states-Iowa and Missouri games are a year old, and the Wisconsin and Indiana legislatures are pondering their own lotteries-some believe Illinois profits could sink further.

Richard Kolhauser, deputy director of the Budget Bureau, said lower than anticipated lottery sales were considered during budget preparations. He discounted as premature warnings by Netsch that 1988 profits could fall below $550 million.

Lottery Director Sharon Sharp said sales may have peaked for the Saturday Lotto game, the biggest moneymaker, but new games offer new room for growth. An $8 million supplemental appropriation approved by the legislature last week will help develop new games, including two instant-winner lotteries under consideration, she said.

Half the revenues generated by the lottery are split among winners. Of the remaining half, 42 percent goes to the Common School Fund to support education, 6 percent is paid in bonuses to ticket agents and the rest goes for advertising, salaries and administration.

Besides advertising gimmicks, future sales increases also depend on a factor the state can`t control-enticing purses that climb geometrically each week when there are no winners in the Lotto and the Lotto 7 drawings.

Van Johnson, acting deputy director of marketing, said an untapped market remains among young people who buy tickets irregularly and impulsively. More than 150 self-service electronic lottery machines will be installed statewide by the end of the year to make buying more convenient, he said.

lotteries because those purses have remained much lower, but competition will increase as those games mature, said Robert Brock of the Economic and Development Commission. Illinois` highest sales areas now are densely populated cities and border areas adjoining highly populated neighbor states, he said. 152ee80cbc

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