Publications and working papers

Urban Heat and Urban Configuration: a General Equilibrium Approach, Pierre VINCENT, 2026 : draft coming soon

Abstract: Urban heat is an important topic in scientific research and public debate. However, little is known about how cities might evolve in relation to urban heat. This paper aims to fill this gap by using a quantitative spatial model, which accounts for numerous spatial interactions between economic agents and allows for the simulation of credible changes in the city. Urban heat is modeled as an endogenous disamenity, which is generated by the share of each ward covered by built-up and affects household location choices through the model's amenities. I base my analysis on Ho Chi Minh City, a Vietnamese megacity highly exposed to urban heat. The quantification of the model and the computation of counterfactual equilibria allow for the examination of long-term effects of urban policies. Notably, heat mitigation policies tend to favor densification of the city center, whereas the intensification of heat leads to the dispersion of residents across the province, which would then involve other urban costs.

Does urban overheating affect neighborhood attractiveness? Evidence from the French housing market, Pierre VINCENT, 2026 : soon in Journal of Housing Economics 

Abstract : This article examines the relationship between urban overheating and housing prices, positioning urban overheating as an environmental dis-amenity with direct implications for the quality of life and health of urban residents. By reducing the attractiveness of affected neighborhoods, urban overheating is expected to negatively affect housing prices. A key contribution of this study is the use of the original micro-climatic Thermocity dataset, which provides high-resolution nighttime land surface temperature data derived from satellite observations over a set of four French urban areas. Housing data are sourced from an exhaustive dataset of housing transactions for the period 2013-2019, which provides detailed information on housing prices and characteristics. To address the potential endogeneity of local urban overheating, an instrumental variable approach is employed, leveraging wind speed as an instrument for land surface temperature. Results from the 2SLS estimation reveal a significant negative effect of urban overheating on housing prices: a 1°C increase in urban overheating is associated with a 2.2% decrease in housing prices. Moreover, the analysis highlights substantial variations in the effect across urban units considered in this study. The robustness of these results is confirmed using alternative measures of urban overheating from other data sources.