Working papers
Working papers
Abstract: "This study examines the impact of public healthcare accessibility on medical loan uptake. In the first part of the paper, we combine administrative Italian healthcare data with a large dataset of securitized consumer loans from 2017 to 2022. We document that a reduction in public-sector doctors significantly increases the likelihood of taking out a medical loan compared to other consumer loans. Next, we implement a difference-indifferences approach, leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic as an exogenous shock. Our findings reveal that higher bed occupancy rates in public hospitals due to COVID-19 are linked to greater uptake for medical loans in affected areas compared to other consumer loans. Finally, we reinforce this causal relationship by providing novel experimental evidence from the UK, showing that longer waiting times for public healthcare treatment drive higher loan demand, particularly among lower-income populations. These findings highlight the financial consequences of deficiencies in public healthcare systems."
"Heterogeneous Scars in Later Life: The Economic Impact of Early Labour Market Opportunities" (R&R)
Abstract: "I analyse the heterogeneous effects of labour market opportunities at education completion on end-of-career outcomes. I use data on European individuals who finished education between 1963 and 1982, observing their outcomes beyond age 50. Using standard econometric models and machine learning, I find that poor initial opportunities have more lasting effects than previously thought. Economic downturns have a non-linear impact: missing good opportunities harms more than avoiding bad ones. Effects are stronger for less-educated and low socioeconomic individuals. Women face permanent reductions in labour market participation. I examine explanatory channels over the lifecycle, showing how initial opportunities shape human capital trajectories."
"The Health Burden of Job Strain: Evidence from Europe" joint work with Giacomo Pasini
Abstract: "This study examines the impact of occupational stressors and tasks throughout an individual's career on their health in older age. Leveraging comprehensive job occupation data from the SHARE dataset, we establish precise connections between stressors and specific jobs at the 4-digit ISCO code level. To ensure accurate measurement of physical exertion, we propose the use of Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET) based on the metabolic rate consumption associated with each task. Our study makes two key contributions. First, we provide compelling evidence that individuals, especially women, engaged in physically demanding jobs experience significantly worse health in older age. Our results remain valid after conducting several robustness checks and after controlling for a rich set of variables. Secondly, we introduce a novel methodology to identify harmful tasks and measure overall Job Strain Intensity, which also incorporates unobserved occupational stressors. This approach allows us to pinpoint specific harmful tasks and 4-digit ISCO codes, providing valuable insights for targeted retirement schemes and addressing important considerations regarding the fairness of statutory retirement ages. Additionally, policymakers can benefit from our findings to foster healthier work environments and guide investments towards automating high-risk tasks, thereby improving overall workplace safety and well-being."
Abstract: "This work documents the role played by disability insurance, typically part of a wider public pension provision package, on the labour market trajectories and retirement decisions. We will first employ a machine learning approach to estimate a Transition Probability Model able to uncover the most likely labour market histories and then evaluate the effects of policy reforms, including reforms to the eligibility for disability insurance benefits. The main contribution is the introduction of disability insurance programs within a framework, which models the entire life course of older Europeans. This requires the detailed administrative eligibility criteria prevailing in each of the 11 countries from 1970 to 2017. Results show that the disability route and early retirement are substitutes. In addition, tightening eligibility rules of disability programs crowd out disabled workers, whose reductions in working capacities are correctly assessed, towards other compensatory schemes (e.g., unemployment benefits or early pension) in which working is not expected. On the contrary, individuals with over-assessed reductions in working capacities are the most reactive to disability policy restrictions. In conclusion, efficient disability assessment procedures are crucial for incentivising labour market participation without hurting individuals most in need."
Abstract: "This paper examines how the quality of public hospital care influences political preferences using novel electoral data from hospital polling stations in Italy. Linking hospital-level healthcare quality data with electoral outcomes, I find that patients exposed to lower-quality care are more likely to support parties advocating stronger public healthcare provision. This shift appears to be driven by heightened issue salience, as voters cast ballots while hospitalized. These findings suggest that direct exposure to public service quality can shape political preferences, with implications extending beyond healthcare to other areas of public provision."