research

Cursed by Gold or Globalization? Company Town and Divided Community in Kyrgyzstan

under review

This paper examines the ways in which a significant resource town can exacerbate socioeconomic divides within a developing country. Contrary to the conventional ``resource curse" narrative, which attributes adverse outcomes to foreign ownership or natural resource endowments, this study emphasizes the crucial role of local institutions in governing resource wealth. Using data from Kyrgyzstan's national household panel surveys (2010-2016), the study reveals how massive yet unevenly distributed revenue from Kumtor, Kyrgyzstan's dominant gold mine, which accounted for 12.5% of GDP in 2020, polarizes the mining community and other local residents. The company provides superior economic and social benefits, exclusively to its locally born workers, with minimal spillover effects for non-mining residents and migrant workers. Furthermore, workers at Kumtor exhibit lower levels of trust in community authorities, who tend to receive greater support from the non-mining population. This divide intensifies with rising gold prices and is noticeable only within a 100-kilometer radius of Kumtor, rather than at other smaller domestically and foreign-owned mines.

Seeing the State Through Infrastructure: China-Invested Mountain Roads and State Capacity in Kyrgyzstan

with Marika Miner  

under review

This study explores the effects of the North-South Transportation Corridor, a mountain road construction project in Kyrgyzstan, implemented under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Utilizing a difference-in-differences design, the research illustrated the project’s role as an infrastruc- tural link that unifies traditionally isolated mountainous regions and bridges communities between the two largest cities in the country. Our results show that this foreign-invested infrastructure devel- opment inadvertently strengthens state capacity and national unity. There’s evidence of increased local income, enhanced trust in the central government, and improved inter-ethnic relations among nearby households. On the other hand, trust in local community leaders has decreased, along with shifting views on religious groups and a diminished tribal identity, especially for residents living 10km to 25km from the project. These impacts are more pronounced in historically marginalized tribes and among certain ethnic groups.

Agricultural Clustering and Female Labor Participation: Empowerment or Exploitation?

with Nodir Djanibekov and Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili

This study investigates the impact of Uzbekistan's agricultural cluster reforms (2019–2022) on female labor participation. These reforms, aimed at boosting productivity and attracting private investment, were implemented by integrating supply chains. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach with survey data from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (2018 and 2022), this study reveals that the cluster reforms heterogeneously increased the female employment ratio. Specifically, they enhanced the participation of skilled women in permanent household labor positions, while also increasing the prevalence of seasonal hired labor characterized by informal contracts and job insecurity. The use of machinery has the potential to mitigate the exploitative nature of seasonal informal roles.

Opium Production and Seasonal Conflict

with Liyang Zhou and Ahmad Shah Mobariz

This paper examines the relationship between opium production and armed conflict in Afghanistan, a country accounted for over 80% of the global opium supply in 2020. We argue that the Afghan opium economy exhibits characteristics of the ‘Dutch disease’ phenomenon. An increase in opium production is associated with a decrease in conflict during the summer months, which can be at- tributed to the labor absorption during the opium harvest. This is followed by a surge in rebel conflict in the winter, fueled by the revenues generated from opium and the unemployed labor. As opium cultivation begins one month before food crops, we use only March rainfall as an exogenous instrument for opium cultivation, thereby excluding potential confounding effects of wheat produc- tion. We confirmed that suitable rainfall, which increases opium harvest during April-June, results in a reduction in conflict during the summer of the same year, but triggers an escalation in rebel conflict during the December to February and the subsequent year.

Irrigation and Insurgency: Can Public Infrastructure Mitigate Climate-Induced Conflict in Afghanistan?

OSCE Academy Working Paper

This study examines the role of public irrigation infrastructure in mitigating climate-induced conflicts in Afghanistan, with a focus on individual engagement with armed groups. Through the analysis of Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) data from 2017 to 2021, as well as Afghan Household Surveys from 2014 and 2017, this study emphasizes the differentiated effectiveness of various irrigation systems in addressing water-related conflicts. Large-scale, externally aided irrigation projects, such as river dams and canals, may be inadequate in dissuading individuals from participating in armed conflict. In contrast, locally driven, community-based irrigation practices, exemplified by kariz systems, demonstrate promise in alleviating climate-related stressors and reducing the intensity of conflicts.

Markets, State or Aid? The Diverse Dynamics of China's Seed Exports to Central and South Asia

with TRANSECT

This study analyzes China's seed exports to Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, key partners in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Using national statistics, case studies, and secondary sources, we investigate the drivers and obstacles of China's seed export strategies. Our analysis reveals that regulatory frameworks, market dynamics, and state subsidies play crucial roles. Pakistan stands out as an attractive market for Chinese seed firms due to its welcoming policies and investment climate, despite regional competition. Kazakhstan, however, poses challenges with strict regulations and a monopolistic market, while Tajikistan offers moderate market access since its WTO entry in 2013, yet is hampered by outdated regulations. Our findings suggest that China's seed export motives are multifaceted, balancing profit-driven private enterprise with strategic goals like addressing domestic oversupply and securing food safety. The research indicates that China's approach varies significantly across different national contexts, underlining the complexity of its agricultural export strategies.