Pan, Pengshan (2025). “Cursed by Gold or Globalisation? Company Town and Divided Community in Kyrgyzstan.” The Journal of Development Studies. 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2025.2595052.

This paper examines how a substantial resource town contributes to socioeconomic divides within a developing country. Beyond the conventional debate over whether natural resources are a source of ‘curse’, the study highlights the crucial role of local institutions in redistributing resource wealth. Using data from Kyrgyzstan’s national household panel surveys (2010–2016), the study shows that the massive yet unevenly distributed revenue from gold mine Kumtor, which accounted for 12.5 per cent of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP in 2020, divides the mining community from other local residents. The company provides exclusive economic benefits to its workers, with no spill-over to non-mining residents. Company workers at Kumtor also exhibit lower levels of trust in local community authorities, who receive greater support from the non-company population. This divide intensifies as gold prices rise and is observed only within a 100-kilometer radius of Kumtor, not at other smaller domestically or foreign-owned mines.

Seeing the State Through Infrastructure: China-Invested Mountain Roads and State Capacity in Kyrgyzstan

with Marika Miner  

under review

This study explores the effects of the North-South Transportation Corridor, a mountain road construction project in Kyrgyzstan, implemented under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Utilizing a difference-in-differences design, the research illustrated the project’s role as an infrastruc- tural link that unifies traditionally isolated mountainous regions and bridges communities between the two largest cities in the country. Our results show that this foreign-invested infrastructure devel- opment inadvertently strengthens state capacity and national unity. There’s evidence of increased local income, enhanced trust in the central government, and improved inter-ethnic relations among nearby households. On the other hand, trust in local community leaders has decreased, along with shifting views on religious groups and a diminished tribal identity, especially for residents living 10km to 25km from the project. These impacts are more pronounced in historically marginalized tribes and among certain ethnic groups.

Agricultural Clustering and Female Labor Participation: Empowerment or Exploitation?

with Nodir Djanibekov and Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili

This study investigates the impact of Uzbekistan's agricultural cluster reforms (2019–2022) on female labor participation. These reforms, aimed at boosting productivity and attracting private investment, were implemented by integrating supply chains. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach with survey data from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (2018 and 2022), this study reveals that the cluster reforms heterogeneously increased the female employment ratio. Specifically, they enhanced the participation of skilled women in permanent household labor positions, while also increasing the prevalence of seasonal hired labor characterized by informal contracts and job insecurity. The use of machinery has the potential to mitigate the exploitative nature of seasonal informal roles.

Opium Production and Seasonal Conflict

with Liyang Zhou and Ahmad Shah Mobariz

This paper examines the relationship between opium production and armed conflict in Afghanistan, a country accounted for over 80% of the global opium supply in 2020. We argue that the Afghan opium economy exhibits characteristics of the ‘Dutch disease’ phenomenon. An increase in opium production is associated with a decrease in conflict during the summer months, which can be at- tributed to the labor absorption during the opium harvest. This is followed by a surge in rebel conflict in the winter, fueled by the revenues generated from opium and the unemployed labor. As opium cultivation begins one month before food crops, we use only March rainfall as an exogenous instrument for opium cultivation, thereby excluding potential confounding effects of wheat produc- tion. We confirmed that suitable rainfall, which increases opium harvest during April-June, results in a reduction in conflict during the summer of the same year, but triggers an escalation in rebel conflict during the December to February and the subsequent year.

Irrigation and Insurgency: Can Public Infrastructure Mitigate Climate-Induced Conflict in Afghanistan?

OSCE Academy Working Paper

This study examines the role of public irrigation infrastructure in mitigating climate-induced conflicts in Afghanistan, with a focus on individual engagement with armed groups. Through the analysis of Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) data from 2017 to 2021, as well as Afghan Household Surveys from 2014 and 2017, this study emphasizes the differentiated effectiveness of various irrigation systems in addressing water-related conflicts. Large-scale, externally aided irrigation projects, such as river dams and canals, may be inadequate in dissuading individuals from participating in armed conflict. In contrast, locally driven, community-based irrigation practices, exemplified by kariz systems, demonstrate promise in alleviating climate-related stressors and reducing the intensity of conflicts.

Fair water allocation in the Aral Sea basin

with Ricardo Martnez,  Juan D. Moreno-Ternero, Shlomo Weber

The allocation of water in Central Asia is an issue of increasing importance. A point in case is the Aral Sea basin, where problems that are persistent worldwide (such as environmental degradation, water scarcity and competing demands across borders) were exacerbated after the collapse of the centralized Soviet water management system. This has prompted rising tensions among countries located along the two major rivers within this Basin: Amu Darya and Syr Darya. We study fair protocols for this region resorting to allocation rules connected to the principle of Territorial Integration of all Basin States.