The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical shocks have severely strained global supply chains and contributed to persistent inflation worldwide. Although supply chain disruptions have been widely discussed in policy circles since the pandemic, their role in monetary policy transmission remains understudied, largely because firm-level stress is hard to measure using conventional data. I address this gap by developing a firm-level indicator using natural language processing of earnings call transcripts. Empirically, I show that after expansionary monetary shocks, constrained firms invest more in capital and raise prices more aggressively than unconstrained peers. I incorporate these findings into a New Keynesian general equilibrium model in which supply chain frictions imply that not all ordered inputs arrive on time or in usable condition. Model simulations align with the evidence and highlight a substitution mechanism: following an expansionary shock, firms substitute away from constrained inputs toward capital to expand production and meet higher demand. Together, the results show that stressed supply chains alter the transmission of monetary policy and pose a trade-off for policymakers: expansionary shocks can boost long-run productive capacity via input-to-capital substitution, but at the cost of a short-run inflation overshoot.

Best Student Paper Award at the 2025 Midwest Econometrics (MEG) Conference

Presentations: 2026 (Schedule): ASSA Annual Meeting; 2025: ECONDAT 7th Conference on Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics;  Annual Meeting of the Midwest Econometrics Group; Annual Conference of the International Association for Applied Econometrics (IAAE); RES Annual Conference; Spring Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting; 2024: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; 8th Monash-Warwick-Zurich-CEPR Text-As-Data Workshop; Fall Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting 

We provide novel evidence that corporate debt maturity plays an important role in the transmission of U.S. monetary policy to foreign firms. Using an identification strategy that explores the ex-ante maturity structure of long-term debt to predict firms’ financial position in a given year, we show that the effect of U.S. monetary policy shocks on foreign firms is amplified by financing constraints. After a contractionary shock, financial conditions in foreign countries become tighter, and firms with a high proportion of long-term debt maturing right after the shock significantly decrease investment and sales. We find that firms in emerging economies are much more affected by these shocks compared to those in advanced economies, and the amplification effect of U.S. monetary policy shocks by financing constraints is present only in emerging economies.

Presentations: 2025: AFA PhD Student Poster Session; 2024: FMA Annual Meeting, Fall Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting; 2023: The Rise of Global Economic Uncertainty and Its Impact on Firms, Workers, and Households (ERIA Microdata Research)

This paper uses the Brazilian central bank’s loss of credibility episode under President Dilma Rousseff’s administration (2011-2014) to provide novel evidence that professional forecasters interpret monetary policy surprises differently depending on the level of central bank’s credibility. With credibility, they understand a monetary policy surprise as a monetary policy shock and decrease their inflation expectations 12 months ahead by -0.25%. With no credibility, they interpret it as an information effect and increase their inflation expectations by 0.57%. We also document three stylized facts: noneffective inflation target tolerance intervals during periods of low credibility, a loss of credibility has a long-lasting impact on long-term inflation expectations, and significantly higher disagreement among inflation expectations during low credibility periods. 

Presentations:  2024: RES Annual Conference, Midwest Economics Association; 2023:  41º Encontro Nacional de Economia ANPEC

Using a novel approach involving natural language processing (NLP) algorithms, we construct a new cross-country index of firms' inflation expectations from earnings call transcripts. Our index has a high correlation with existing survey-based measures of firms' inflation expectations, it is robust to external validation tests and is built using a new method that outperforms other NLP algorithms. In an application of our index to United States, we uncover some facts related to firm's inflation expectations. We show that higher expected inflation translates into future inflation. Going into the firms level dimension of our index, we show departures from a rational framework in firms' inflation expectations and that firms' attention to the central enhances monetary policy effectiveness. 

Presentations: 2025: ASSA Annual Meeting; 2024: SED Annual Meeting; Leveraging Natural Language Processing To Answer Economic Questions (Organized by Banque de France and OECD); Conference on Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics Poster Session, 46º Encontro da Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria; 2023: 41º Encontro Nacional de Economia ANPEC

This paper examines how supply chain disruptions amplify the macroeconomic consequences of terms-of-trade shocks in open economies. We develop a parsimonious small-open-economy model in which supply chain bottlenecks reduce the efficiency of imported goods. Leveraging a novel, country-specific measure of supply chain pressures constructed from textual analysis, we find that periods of elevated strain magnify the adverse effects of terms-of-trade deteriorations. In such episodes, output declines are steeper, unemployment rises more sharply, real exchange rate depreciation is greater, and inflation accelerates relative to low-pressure periods. The empirical evidence closely aligns with the model’s predictions. Taken together, these results highlight the critical role of supply chain conditions in shaping the transmission of external shocks and suggest that conventional stabilization policies may be less effective when such disruptions are acute.

Presentations: 2025: Fall Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting 

This paper investigates how firms' attention to central banks influences monetary policy transmission under varying macroeconomic uncertainty. The paper utilizes the earnings calls-based firm inflation expectations index and a novel attention indicator at the firm level in the empirical analysis. Attention amplifies the impact of monetary policy in low-uncertainty environments, but this effect dissipates during periods of high uncertainty. An extended rational inattention model with a central bank signal explains these findings. The model predicts that, in high-uncertainty environments, firms are already well-informed, and there is less new information from the Central Bank. 

The literature offers no consensus on whether variations in consumer expectations influence consumption. Using households’ political preferences as an instrument for shifts in sentiment, this paper finds asymmetric and significant changes in macroeconomic expectations around U.S. presidential elections, with no corresponding increase in willingness to spend. Analysis of expectations for personal economic conditions, employment status, income growth, and credit availability, shows no significant changes. The results suggest that partisan-driven shifts in macroeconomic expectations do not reflect accurate personal forecasts and, therefore, fail to translate into consumer behavior. 

“Firms’ Inflation Expectations, Attention, and Monetary Policy Effectiveness”, Box n.2.1, IMF World Economic Outlook (2023) 

Joint work with Silvia Albrizio and Allan Dizioli