Research:
1. Labor Unions and the Electoral Consequences of Trade Liberalization, with Emanuel Ornelas and Rodrigo Soares
Journal of the European Economic Association
- VoxEU column:Trade liberalisation can weaken unions and reduce votes for the left
-VoxDev column: Trade liberalisation can weaken unions and reduce votes for the left
2. The U.S-China TradeWar Creates Jobs (Elsewhere), with Emanuel Ornelas and Tiago Cavalcanti.
Journal of International Economics (forthcoming)
- CESifo
- VoxEU column: The US-China trade war created jobs (elsewhere)
Work in Progress:
1. The Impacts of Mercosur on the Brazilian Labor Market, with Alexandre Rabelo and Caio Castro
This paper examines the impacts of Mercosur on Brazilian local labor markets. Our analysis reveals that the increasing export opportunities due to the preferential tariff reductions implemented by Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay led to an increase in the number of formal workers in Brazil's most exposed regions compared to the less exposed ones. Interestingly, we also find that Brazil's preferential tariffs on its Mercosur partners relatively increased earnings premia in harder-hit regions. Furthermore, given that Brazilian unilateral trade liberalization coincided with the establishment of Mercosur, we also investigate whether the existing literature's findings on the negative effects of Brazilian unilateral liberalization on labor markets hold when accounting for Mercosur tariff reductions. Our findings indicate that the impact is even more pronounced when considering the Mercosur.
2.The Impacts of Brazil’s Energy Efficiency Program on Low-Income Household Consumption, with Lycia Lima and Amanda Schutze
This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the Programa de Eficiência Energética (PEE), Brazil’s primary energy efficiency program, in reducing energy consumption among low-income households. Using data from 8,256 households that participated in PEE projects between 2018 and 2022, we apply a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the causal impact on monthly energy consumption. Our findings reveal an average reduction of 6.9% in energy use among treated households, although this effect diminishes over time, becoming negligible after approximately three years. Furthermore, we estimate that the PEE is responsible for a reduction of 0.0054 tons of CO2 emissions per month per household in our sample, underscoring the PEE’s potential contribution to environmental sustainability.
3. Impact of New Stadiums on Ticket Demand in the Brazilian Football Championship 2012-2015, with Alexandre Rabelo and Caio Castro
This paper aims to study the determinants of ticket demand in the Brazilian Football Championship. Data from over 1,520 matches between 2012 and 2015 were analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) and panel data estimations (via fixed effects, random effects) as well as Tobit models. The model includes variables related to the economic environment, team performance, expected product quality, incentives for fans to attend the match, and stadium infrastructure. The latter plays a central role in this study, as the existence of the "novelty effect," which increases match attendance, is tested. The results support the existence of this effect and highlight a number of other variables that affect attendance, such as ticket price, per capita income, league standings, match day, and competition venue.