WORKING PAPERS

How does the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus depend on the composition of firms where the stimulus takes place? This paper shows that the local fiscal multiplier increases with the share of small firms, implying multipliers of 0.95-2.15 in the interquartile range. Using firm-level data, I document that small firms are more responsive than large firms to government spending. 

Do local fiscal multipliers depend on what the government purchases? We find that government purchases of services have larger effects on employment than spending on goods. Our estimates suggest that spending on services drives the aggregate government purchase multiplier in the US.

Washington Center for Equitable Growth Doctoral Grant ($15,000)

This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of social transfer payments to individuals. While the size of the social transfer multiplier is 0.30 in developed countries, it is 0.90 in Latin American countries. We document that the average share of the population living hand-to-mouth in developed economies is 23%, versus 60% in Latin American countries. We show that the difference on the share of hand-to-mouth consumers is able to explain 80%-90% of the difference in the estimated social transfer multipliers.  

Featured in: Box 1 - Semi-annual report of LAC region at The World Bank

We find that a climatic disaster drops monthly economic activity in most countries in the region of around 0.5 to 1 percentage points on impact, with persistent effects on the level of GDP. In addition, remittances (transfers from family living abroad) increase for most countries in response to a extreme climate event, acting as a shock absorber. 

How sizable are the potential gains from improving health spending efficiency—in terms of freeing up resources and delivering better health outcomes—? What can policymakers do to boost it? This paper estimates health spending efficiency across countries and finds sizable differences in efficiency across countries, in particular among emerging and developing countries compared to advanced economies.