The Triple Lock

The September 2026 proposal

The Government has committed to retain the existing formula throughout this Parliament. From April 2030 it proposes to adjust the mechanism so that pensions increase by at least CPI inflation or 2.5%, plus any additional amount needed to preserve the State Pension’s record-high value relative to average earnings. The Government describes the result as a pension that continues to rise every year, protects against prices and shares in economic growth, while producing long-term savings relative to an unreformed triple lock.

What remains unspecified

The precise measure of earnings for the future to be used are unclear. There is no clear comparator of how any catch-up elements would work if wages continued to rise above CPI inflation or 2.5%.

After the earnings link was removed in 1980 the pension fell from about 26% of average earnings in 1979 to around 16% by 2011. Future concerns include already high food and energy costs, pensioners poverty, the gap between old and new state pension. There is also the impact of keeping the tax threshold at the same level.

Additional Effects of raising the State pension Age to 67 then 68

Savings of £35 Billion have been estimated by the government with this measure of raising the state pension age. Projected savings from changes to the Triple Lock are £15 billion in 2039/40 and 2049/50 £50 billion. This measure will further impact on those who must work longer to qualify and clearly a key issue for younger people.

Social Care

The government have sold this reduction on the emotive phrase of the reduced payments will pay for social care. But this saving will not be enough to fund social care and like Scotland who do not charge for care fees are still charged for bed and boarding and there is no indication that that will change under the new NHS scheme.

Socal Care is a universal public responsibility and should be funded through a fair, broad and sustainable settlement ideally taxing those with the broadest shoulders rather than reduced future State Pension Growth

To Conclude

ARMs policy is to oppose any attacks on the triple lock and that we campaign to defend what we have. ARMs policy in addition calls on the government to separately fund a care system through taxation of the wealthy; free at the point of use and brought back into public ownership.

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