How do weather shocks affect labor productivity? Evidence from the UKHLS Interviewers Fieldwork
Abstract: I provide the first evidence on how weather affects individual-level labor productivity and reallocation in a high-income, temperate economy. Leveraging detailed panel data on UKHLS survey interviewers linked to local weather records, I show that high temperatures significantly reduce productivity on both the extensive and intensive margins. Productivity losses on hot days are partially offset by higher labor supply on subsequent mild days, consistent with short-run work reallocation, although monthly backlog estimates suggest this compensation is incomplete. I also show that repeated exposure to heat changes workers’ responses over time, with evidence of cumulative strain on the extensive margin but partial adaptation on the intensive margin. Finally, an AKM variance decomposition shows that interviewer effects explain a growing share of productivity variation under extreme temperatures, suggesting that weather-induced productivity losses are driven mainly by interviewers rather than respondents.
Winter Is Coming: The Effects of a Labeled Cash Transfer on Fuel Spending and Well-being (link here)
(Best Paper Award for Rising Star at the International Behavioural Public Policy Conference)
Abstract: The Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) is an annual cash transfer paid to older individuals in the United Kingdom to increase heating and improve health. This paper examines whether the label attached to the transfer increases household fuel spending and, through this channel, affects health outcomes. Using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study and implementing a Multi-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Design, I find that WFP-eligible households increase annual fuel spending by 6.4% relative to ineligible households. Health effects are concentrated among individuals reporting poorer health prior to treatment, who increase fuel spending substantially and experience significant improvements in self-reported health following WFP eligibility. By contrast, individuals with chronic conditions also increase fuel spending in response to the WFP, but do not exhibit comparable improvements in self-reported health. Effects are stronger among individuals not receiving benefits who must actively apply for the payment, suggesting that greater engagement with the transfer increases the effectiveness of the label. Finally, WFP-eligible households maintain significantly warmer homes during winter, with the largest effects occurring on milder winter days, indicating that improved indoor thermal conditions are an important channel through which the transfer affects well-being.
AI Adoption and Workforce Change in SMEs (link here)
with David Bharier and Ben Etheridge
Abstract: This paper investigates Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption and its labour market consequences among UK small and medium enterprises, using novel data from the British Chambers of Commerce Business Outlook Survey, collected in early 2026. AI adoption is increasingly widespread, with over half of responding firms currently using AI, up from around a third in 2025. Most users rely on generic tools such as ChatGPT or Copilot, but around one in ten firms have adopted bespoke AI implementations. We find that bespoke adoption in particular is associated with a coherent bundle of workforce adjustment. Approximately one-fifth of bespoke users report staffing reductions attributable to AI, and bespoke adopters are roughly three times more likely to have restructured job roles. Restructuring is in turn strongly associated with headcount reductions and shifts in skills requirements. Surprisingly, firms investing in AI-related training are significantly more likely to anticipate headcount reductions than those not investing in training. We also find that current AI users are substantially more optimistic about future productivity gains than non-users. Our findings provide a novel firm-level picture of how SMEs are reorganising work, adjusting workforces, and investing in skills in response to AI.
Outdoor Temperature and Cognitive Performance: Evidence from the UK
Abstract: Using cognitive assessments from the UK Household Longitudinal Study linked to local weather conditions, I estimate the impact of temperature on multiple dimensions of cognitive performance in a nationally representative sample of the UK population. The results indicate that cognitive performance varies systematically with temperature. The largest effects are observed on hot days for numerical reasoning tasks that require respondents to identify patterns and solve unfamiliar problems, whereas numerical questions based on everyday mathematical calculations exhibit comparatively smaller responses. Objective memory performance shows little sensitivity to same-day temperature fluctuations but deteriorates following cumulative exposure to several consecutive hot days. In contrast, self-rated memory declines under both hot and cold conditions, suggesting that thermal stress affects perceptions of cognitive functioning more strongly than objective memory performance. The estimated effects are generally larger among middle-aged respondents and individuals outside employment, while heterogeneity by gender and educational attainment is limited.
The Impacts of Relational and Restorative Practice in Schools.
with Paul Garcia and Luca Favero
Examining the health drivers of older workers’ labour market participation and job search decisions.
with Alex Clymo, Carlos Carrilo-Tudella, Francesca Salvati and David Zentler-Munro