Researcher, Banque de France Associate Researcher, Sciences Po - OFCE
I am a Visiting Scholar in the Department of Economics at Stanford University from July 2024 to June 2026
Research interests: Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Household and Firm Heterogeneity, Expectations Formation
Email: paul.hubert@sciencespo.fr paul.hubert@banque-france.fr
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Conference organization:
» 9 December 2025: Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics 2025 held at OFCE in Paris
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Recent publications
» July 2024: "The Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy on Labor Income: Disentangling the Extensive and Intensive Margins" has been published in the Journal of Political Economy: Macroeconomics
» July 2024: "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Price Bubbles" has been published in the European Economic Review
» May 2024: "Same Actions, Different Effects: The Conditionality of Monetary Policy Instruments" has been published in the Journal of Monetary Economics
» September 2023: "The Distribution of Households' Indebtedness and the Transmission of Monetary Policy" has been published in the Review of Economics and Statistics
Working papers
» When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News, with Sylvérie Herbert and Mathias Lé, September 2025. [pdf]
» The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy, with Rose Portier, August 2025. [pdf]
» Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance, July 2025. [pdf]
» Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements, with Michael Ehrmann, June 2025. [pdf]
» Information Effects and Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasts, April 2025. [pdf]
» Behavioral Underpinnings of Overreaction in Inflation Expectations across Economic Agents, with Camille Cornand and Rose Portier, July 2025. [pdf]
Work in progress
» Heterogenous Firm Expectations and Misallocation, with Erwan Gautier and Alaïs Martin-Baillon
» Savings Choices in Household Debt Decisions, with Morgane Richard and Frédérique Savignac
» Subjective Uncertainty, Overconfidence and Overreaction to News, with Camille Cornand and Rose Portier
» The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations, with Michael Ehrmann
» July 2024: "The Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy on Labor Income: Disentangling the Extensive and Intensive Margins" has been published in the Journal of Political Economy: Macroeconomics
» July 2024: "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Price Bubbles" has been published in the European Economic Review
» May 2024: "Same Actions, Different Effects: The Conditionality of Monetary Policy Instruments" has been published in the Journal of Monetary Economics
» September 2023: "The Distribution of Households' Indebtedness and the Transmission of Monetary Policy" has been published in the Review of Economics and Statistics
Working papers
» When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News, with Sylvérie Herbert and Mathias Lé, September 2025. [pdf]
» The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy, with Rose Portier, August 2025. [pdf]
» Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance, July 2025. [pdf]
» Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements, with Michael Ehrmann, June 2025. [pdf]
» Information Effects and Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasts, April 2025. [pdf]
» Behavioral Underpinnings of Overreaction in Inflation Expectations across Economic Agents, with Camille Cornand and Rose Portier, July 2025. [pdf]
Work in progress
» Heterogenous Firm Expectations and Misallocation, with Erwan Gautier and Alaïs Martin-Baillon
» Savings Choices in Household Debt Decisions, with Morgane Richard and Frédérique Savignac
» Subjective Uncertainty, Overconfidence and Overreaction to News, with Camille Cornand and Rose Portier
» The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations, with Michael Ehrmann
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