Research

Work in Progress

One Money, One Voice? Evaluating Ideological Positions of Euro Area Central Banks  (with Pierre Siklos, Martin Feldkircher (R&R European Journal of Political Economy) 

Gaining Insights on U.S. Senate Speeches Using a Time Varying Text Based Ideal Point Model,  (with Bettina Grün, Sourav Adhikari (R&R Journal of Applied Econometrics ))

Vaxxed and Relaxed? The Causal Impact of Vaccination on Social Distancing: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experimen,  (with Petra Tschuchnig, Hannes Winner)

A Structural Text-Based Scaling Model,  (with Jan Vavra, Bernd Prostmaier, Bettina Grün)

Variational Seeded Topic Model: Leveraging domain knowledge to fit semi-supervised topic models in large scale data environments, (with Bernd Prostmaier, Bettina Grün)

Persuading regulators  - An NLP analysis of early benefit assessments of medical products,  (with Simeon Schudy, Nico Lacetera)

Publications

Cornelius Dzien, Petra Unterberger, Paul Hofmarcher, Hannes Winner, and Monika Lech- leitner. Detecting disabilities in everyday life: evidence from a geriatric assessment. BMC geriatrics, 22(1):1–10, 2022.

 Michael Blauberger, Anita Heindlmaier, Paul Hofmarcher, Josephine Assmus, and Birgit Mitter. The differentiated politicization of free movement of people in the EU. A topic modeling analysis of press coverage in Austria, Germany, Poland and the UK. Journal of European Public Policy, forthcoming, 2022

Grün Bettina and Paul Hofmarcher. Identifying Groups of Determinants in Bayesian Model Averaging Using Dirichlet Process Clustering. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 48(3):1018– 1045, 2021.

Martin Feldkircher, Paul Hofmarcher, Pierre Siklos. What do central banks talk about? A European perspective on central bank communication. Focus on European Economic Integration, Q2/21. 61-81, 2021

 Gertraud Malsiner Walli, Paul Hofmarcher, and Bettina Grün.  Semi-parametric regression under model uncertainty: Economic applications. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81:1117–1143, 2019.

 Paul Hofmarcher, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Bettina Grün, Stefan Humer, and Mathias Moser. Bivariate jointness measures in bayesian model averaging: Solving the conundrum. Journal of Macroeconomics, 57:150–165, 2018.

 Laura Vana, Paul Hofmarcher, Bettina Grün, and Kurt Hornik. Identifying key factors in accounting-based models of credit risk based on a predictive model averaging approach. Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting, 16:117–146, 2018.

 Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Bettina Grün, Paul Hofmarcher, Stefan Humer, and Mathias Moser. Unveiling covariate inclusion structures in economic growth regressions using latent class analysis. European Economic Review, 81:189–202, 2016.

 Paul Hofmarcher, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Bettina Grün, and Kurt Hornik. Last Night a Shrinkage Saved My Life: Economic Growth, Model Uncertainty and Correlated Regressors. Journal of Forecasting, 34(2):133–144, 2015.

 Paul Hofmarcher, Stefan Kerbl, Bettina Grün, Michael Sigmund, and Kurt Hornik. Model uncertainty and aggregated default probabilities: New evidence from Austria. Applied Economics, 46(8):871–879, 2014.

 Mathias Moser and Paul Hofmarcher. Model priors revisited: Interaction terms in BMA growth applications. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(2):344–347, 2013.

 Paul Hofmarcher, Bettina Grün, Kurt Hornik, and Patrick Mair. Determining the similarity between US cities using a gravity model for search engine query data. In Berthold Lausen, Dirk Van den Poel, and Alfred Ultsch, editors, Algorithms from and for Nature and Life – Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization, pages 243–250. Springer, 2013.

 Thomas Rusch, Paul Hofmarcher, Reinhold Hatzinger, and Kurt Hornik. Model trees with topic model pre-processing: An approach for data journalism illustrated with the Wikileaks Afghanistan war logs. Annals of Applied Statistics, 7(2):613–639, 2013.

 Paul Hofmarcher and Kurt Hornik. First Significant Digits and the Credit Derivative Market during the Financial Crisis. Contemporary Economics, 7(2):21–29, 2013.

 Bettina Grün, Paul Hofmarcher, Kurt Hornik, Christoph Leitner, and Stefan Pichler. Deriving consensus ratings of the big three rating agencies. Journal of Credit Risk, 9(1):75–98, 2013.

 Paul Hofmarcher, Kurt Hornik, and Stefan Theussl. Do media sentiments reflect economic indices? Chinese Business Review, 10(7), July 2011.

Book Reviews

 Paul Hofmarcher. An Introduction to R for Quantitative Economics. Journal of Statistical Software, 67, 2015.

Book Chapters

 Paul Hofmarcher and Bettina Grün. Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data, chapter Bayesian Model Averaging. Springer, 2020.

 Paul Hofmarcher, Helga Wagner, and Gertraud Malsiner-Walli. Moderne Verfahren der Ange- wandten Statistik, chapter Bayesianische Modellwahl. Springer, 2023.