PAOLO AGNOLIN

RESEARCH

Publications:

“In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-Treatment Bias”, with Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig

Comparative Political Studies, 2025

Abstract: We study the implications of post-treatment bias in the context of the globalization backlash.We discuss whether horse-race regressions can inform about the relative role of economic vs.cultural drivers. We make three methodological points: (1) if and insofar as cultural variables are post-treatment with respect to economic factors, the estimates of the effect of economic shocks on voting are biased in regressions that include cultural controls (and vice versa); (2) for the same reason, such horse-race regressions do not allow to accurately estimate the relative role of economic vs. cultural factors; (3) one cannot infer mediation effects from changes in regression coefficients for a given factor of interest before and after including post-treatment controls. We accompany the methodological discussion with empirical evidence on the relevance of post-treatment bias in studies of the globalization backlash, both by replicating and expanding on earlier studies, and by presenting novel cross-country results on the culture-economy nexus.

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“The political economy of poverty and inequality”, with Elena Marseglia and Zachary Parolin

Ch. 11 in "Handbook on the Political Economy of Social Policy ", Edward Elgar Publishing, 2024

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“ 'Economy and/or culture?' In search of the causes of the globalization backlash, between methods and evidence”, with Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig

Ch. 2 in "The Backlash against Globalization: What’s Next?", A Report from the Niehaus Center for Globalization & Governance, Princeton University, 2022

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Work in progress:

“Robots Replacing Trade Union: Novel Data and Evidence from Western Europe” , with Massimo Anelli, Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig, Conditially Accepted at American Political Science Review

The WP is part of the project "Automation, Unions and Collective Bargaining: the Jammed Transmission", funded by Fondazione Cariplo

Abstract: Labor unions play a crucial role in liberal democracies by influencing labor market and political dynamics, organizing workers’ demands and linking them to parties. However, their importance has progressively diminished in the last decades. We suggest that technological change—and industrial robotization in particular—has contributed to weakening the role of unions. We produce novel granular data on union density at the sub-national and industry level for 15 countries of western Europe over 2002-2018. Employing these data, we estimate the impact of industrial robot adoption on unionization rates. We find that regions more exposed to automation experience a decrease in union density. The decline in unionization occurs via a compositional effect, i.e., a reallocation of employment away from traditionally unionized industries towards less unionized ones. On the other hand, there is no clear evidence of a systematic reduction in union density within industries more exposed to automation.

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"When Technology Manages: Workers, Unions, and Collective Bargaining in the Age of AI", with Valentina González-Rostani, Under Review at Comparative Political Studies

Abstract: Artificial intelligence and digital technologies are transforming work, but their consequences for workers and unions remain unclear. We distinguish displacement, augmentation, and monitoring technologies and argue that each reshapes job stability, workplace interaction, and union leverage differently. Using survey evidence from workers in Western countries, we show that augmentation and monitoring are associated with higher unionization, whereas displacement predicts the reverse, reflecting how different technologies reshape working conditions. We then analyze a novel dataset we assembled of more than 40,000 Canadian collective bargaining agreements from 1993 to 2025, showing that exposure shapes not only membership but also what unions bargain for. Augmentation and monitoring are linked to stronger protections on training, governance, notice, and surveillance, while displacement is associated with weaker protections. Together, these findings suggest that the future of work is not predetermined by technology alone but is also negotiated at the bargaining table.

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"The Candidate Factory: technological change and political supply"

The paper has received an honorable mention at the American Political Science Association (APSA) 2026 for the Dorothy Day Award for Outstanding Labor Research, which recognizes the best paper presented on any panel at the previous year’s APSA Annual Meeting (2025) that contributed to labor scholarship.

Abstract: The transition from industrial to post-industrial societies is reshaping political landscapes, with studies documenting a decline in working-class representation. This paper provides a structural explanation for the changing composition of political elites, focusing on the role of technological advancements such as automation and robotization. I argue that the distributional effects of automation play a key role in shaping political representation. Specifically, I theorize that automation alters the distribution of economic resources and opportunities across occupations, influencing who runs for office. I propose that those most negatively affected by automation, particularly individuals from working-class or automatable backgrounds, are increasingly underrepresented among political candidates. This research explores the impact of material changes on political candidacy, drawing on data from U.S. state legislatures, local offices in California, and representative surveys. The findings reveal that in areas with higher exposure to automation, there is a notable decline in candidates from occupations most affected by robotization. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the structural factors shaping the supply of political candidates and their implications for representation and policy outcomes.

"Collective bargaining, business AI use, and worker adjustment under generative AI", with Valentina González-Rostani

Project selected as part of the OpenAI Economic Research Exchange ($115,000)

"Collective Agreements in the Age of Artificial Intelligence", with Valentina González-Rostani

The project is financed by a research grant from the Initiative for Data-Driven Social Science (DDSS), Princeton University

“Trade Unions and Voting in Western Europe”, with Massimo Anelli, Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig

What the Sirens Meant

A symbol of industrial transformation: in the heart of my hometown, a paper plant has stood proudly since the 1500s, its modern machines humming to life in the 1800s.

More than just an employer, the factory was the town's metronome. Its sirens ("il cuco", as we call them locally) marked the town's rhythm, their daily calls echoing through the streets and reminding everyone of the shared heartbeat of our community. For generations, the majority of our population found employment within its walls, shaping the town's destiny.

Today, stories like this are changing across the globe. The winds of automation, globalisation, and the green transition are reshaping economies, leaving communities grappling with new challenges.

My research focuses on the effects of these structural changes, particularly on labor markets, society, and political dynamics in Western countries. I am passionate about understanding how these forces are shaping our future and finding solutions to ensure a just and equitable transition for all.