Publications and articles
Publications and articles
Embedded Files
Publications:
“ In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-Treatment Bias ”, with Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig
Comparative Political Studies, 2024
Abstract: We study the implications of post-treatment bias in the context of the globalization backlash.We discuss whether horse-race regressions can inform about the relative role of economic vs.cultural drivers. We make three methodological points: (1) if and insofar as cultural variables are post-treatment with respect to economic factors, the estimates of the effect of economic shocks on voting are biased in regressions that include cultural controls (and vice versa); (2) for the same reason, such horse-race regressions do not allow to accurately estimate the relative role of economic vs. cultural factors; (3) one cannot infer mediation effects from changes in regression coefficients for a given factor of interest before and after including post-treatment controls. We accompany the methodological discussion with empirical evidence on the relevance of post-treatment bias in studies of the globalization backlash, both by replicating and expanding on earlier studies, and by presenting novel cross-country results on the culture-economy nexus.
“ The political economy of poverty and inequality”, with Elena Marseglia and Zachary Parolin
Ch. 11 in "Handbook on the Political Economy of Social Policy ", Edward Elgar Publishing, 2024
“ 'Economy and/or culture?' In search of the causes of the globalization backlash, between methods and evidence”, with Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig
Ch. 2 in "The Backlash against Globalization: What’s Next?", A Report from the Niehaus Center for Globalization & Governance, Princeton University, 2022
Work in progress:
“Robots Replacing Trade Union: Novel Data and Evidence from Western Europe” , with Massimo Anelli, Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig, Under review
The WP is part of the project "Automation, Unions and Collective Bargaining: the Jammed Transmission", funded by Fondazione Cariplo
Abstract: Labor unions play a crucial role in liberal democracies by influencing labor market and political dynamics, organizing workers’ demands and linking them to parties. However, their importance has progressively diminished in the last decades. We suggest that technological change—and industrial robotization in particular—has contributed to weakening the role of unions. We produce novel granular data on union density at the sub-national and industry level for 15 countries of western Europe over 2002-2018. Employing these data, we estimate the impact of industrial robot adoption on unionization rates. We find that regions more exposed to automation experience a decrease in union density. The decline in unionization occurs via a compositional effect, i.e., a reallocation of employment away from traditionally unionized industries towards less unionized ones. On the other hand, there is no clear evidence of a systematic reduction in union density within industries more exposed to automation.
“Trade Unions and Voting in Western Europe”, with Massimo Anelli, Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig
"The Candidate Factory: technological change and political supply"
A symbol of industrial transformation: in the heart of my hometown, a paper plant has stood proudly since the 1500s, its modern machines humming to life in the 1800s.
More than just an employer, the factory's sirens marked the town's rhythm, their daily calls echoing through the streets and reminding everyone of the shared heartbeat of our community. For generations, the majority of our population found employment within its walls, shaping the town's destiny.
Today, however, stories like this are changing. The winds of automation, globalisation, and the green transition are reshaping economies, leaving communities grappling with new challenges.
My research focuses on the effects of these structural changes, particularly on labor markets, society, and political dynamics in Western countries. I am passionate about understanding how these forces are shaping our future and finding solutions to ensure a just and equitable transition for all.
Articles and editorials:
"Il robot non s'iscrive al sindacato: e il voto dei perdenti finisce a destra", by Dario di Vico, Corriere della Sera, 17/06/2024
"Sindacati in crisi in un'economia che cambia", Rivista Eco, 04/2024
"La soluzione alternativa ai Corona Bond c'è", Huffington Post, 10/04/2020
"London Calling. La sfida per il futuro del Regno Unito", Huffington Post,10/12/2019
Innovazione e dinamiche industriali: cosa sappiamo di nuovo?", Huffington Post, 21/10/2019
"Brexit, è giunta l'ora?" , Huffington Post, 16/07/2019
Master thesis:
“The Impact of Discrimination on Future Performance: evidence of a self-fulfilling prophecy from the Italian student population”
Supervisor: William Parienté (UCLouvain); Reader: Tommaso Frattini (Unimi)
Bachelor thesis:
"The Multiplier Effect of Public Investments. A qualitative integration of the output-based approach"
Supervisors: Vincenzo Rebba (Unipd), Cernin Martínez Yoldi (Unav)
Paolo Agnolin | paolo.agnolin@princeton.edu
School of Public and International Affairs | Princeton University
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse