I am currently a research economist at the Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), focusing on macro-financial issues including financial stability, monetary policy, emerging countries and sovereign debt.
Research
Monetary Policy and Life Insurance Profitability: Bancassurance's Edge in a Low-Yield World (2023) Working Paper (& Under Review)
Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel (2024) Working Paper (& Accepted at the Review of World Economics)
Gatekeepers of the Market? IMF Surveillance and Sovereign Access to Global Finance (2025) Working Paper
Financial Crises and Central Bank Balance Sheet Responses Work in progress
Local Buffers to Climate Shocks : Remittances vs. Credit in Mexican Municipalities Work in progress
Resume
cv_paguilar_eng_2025.pdfLanguages
Spanish Native
French Native
English Fluent (C1 IELTS)
Russian Beginner (A2 level)
Skills
R Advanced
Python Advanced
STATA Advanced
EVIEWS Proficient
Econometrics - Time series, Panel data, Non linear econometrics, Vector autoregression (VAR), Local projections, Difference-in-differences
Geoconomics -GIS data, shapefiles
Web scraping
Data analysis
Excellent communication
Experience drafting policy briefings
Projects
Shiny App - Cumulative inflation tool
(More info on Monetary Policy Shocks in the research section)
Links
Blog
It’s been a long time since buying a home has been this expensive for American consumers. Even though incomes have gone up, home prices have skyrocketed, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. The first graph shows that while family incomes have grown, the price of homes has shot up even more. On top of that, mortgage rates have climbed steeply, making it harder for people to afford their monthly payments. This combination of higher home prices and rising mortgage rates has pushed housing affordability to its lowest point in decades.
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, St. Louis Fred
The second graph paints an even clearer picture of how tough things have gotten. It shows how the total amount paid for a home with a 10% down payment, has become much harder to afford compared to median family incomes. In fact, the affordability gap is at levels we haven’t seen since 1985. The median single-family home now costs around $406,241. Assuming a 10% down payment and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage close to 7%, the total payout over the life of the loan would be a staggering $902,736. With home prices and mortgage rates both rising fast, many people are finding it harder than ever to buy a home, even though they’re earning more than they used to.