I am currently a research economist at the Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), focusing on macro-financial issues including financial stability, monetary policy, emerging countries and sovereign debt.
PhD in Economics defended in July 2025 : "Monetary Policy Financial Instability and Multilateral Governance" under the supervision of Cécile Couharde and Aurélien Saïdi
Research
Publications
P. Aguilar Pérez (2025) Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel, Review of World Economics Published version accesible here
P. Aguilar Pérez (2025), Monetary Policy and Life Insurance Profitability: Bancassurance's Edge in a Low-Yield World Working Paper (& Accepted for publication at The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice)
Local Buffers to Climate Shocks : Remittances vs. Credit in Mexican Municipalities Work in progress
Working papers
P. Aguilar Pérez (2025), Gatekeepers of the Market? IMF Surveillance and Sovereign Access to Global Finance (2025) Working Paper
Work in progress
P. Aguilar Pérez, E. Monnet, F. Morvillier, A. Chennard (Upcoming in 2026) Absorbing International Shocks through Central Banks: A New Database on Central Bank Balance Sheets
Global weighted central bank assets, share and composition (1800-2023)
Note : Data from 1800-2023 including 112 Central Banks. Source : P. Aguilar Pérez, E. Monnet, F. Morvillier, A. Chenard (Upcoming in 2026) Absorbing International Shocks through Central Banks: A New Database on Central Bank Balance Sheets
Composition of domestic asset portfolio : Open Market Operations (OmOs) vs direct financing to the public sector - Global vs excluding G7 countries
Note : Data from 1950-2023 including 112 Central Banks. Source : P. Aguilar Pérez, E. Monnet, F. Morvillier, A. Chenard (Upcoming in 2026) Absorbing International Shocks through Central Banks: A New Database on Central Bank Balance Sheets
Languages
Spanish Native
French Native
English Fluent (C1 IELTS)
Russian Beginner (A2 level)
Skills
R Advanced
Python Advanced
STATA Advanced
EVIEWS Proficient
Econometrics - Time series, Panel data, Non linear econometrics, Vector autoregression (VAR), Local projections, Difference-in-differences
Geoconomics -GIS data, shapefiles
Web scraping
Data analysis
Excellent communication
Experience drafting policy briefings
Blog and policy
Shiny App - Cumulative inflation tool
(More info on Monetary Policy Shocks in the research section)
Links
Blog
It’s been a long time since buying a home has been this expensive for American consumers. Even though incomes have gone up, home prices have skyrocketed, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. The first graph shows that while family incomes have grown, the price of homes has shot up even more. On top of that, mortgage rates have climbed steeply, making it harder for people to afford their monthly payments. This combination of higher home prices and rising mortgage rates has pushed housing affordability to its lowest point in decades.
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, St. Louis Fred
The second graph paints an even clearer picture of how tough things have gotten. It shows how the total amount paid for a home with a 10% down payment, has become much harder to afford compared to median family incomes. In fact, the affordability gap is at levels we haven’t seen since 1985. The median single-family home now costs around $406,241. Assuming a 10% down payment and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage close to 7%, the total payout over the life of the loan would be a staggering $902,736. With home prices and mortgage rates both rising fast, many people are finding it harder than ever to buy a home, even though they’re earning more than they used to.