Welcome !
I am a PhD student in Economics at the Paris Nanterre University in Paris, where I work under the supervision of professor Cécile Couharde.
You can contact me at paguilar@parisnanterre.fr or pabloaguilarperez@hotmail.com
Pablo Aguilar Pérez
About Me
My research interests include, but are not limited to, monetary policy, international macroeconomics and financial stability.
Hobbies include politics, cinema and brutalist architecture!
Research
Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity in Life Insurance Profitability (2023)
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on the profitability of French life insurance companies over the low interest rate environment. Using novel micro-data covering 31 individual life insurers operating in France over the 2009-2018 period, our empirical analysis suggests that the low-for-long interest rate environment has had an ambiguous effect on the profitability of French life insurers. However, when considering the heterogeneity of the sample based on legal categories --bancassurance, traditional S.A insurers and mutual insurers--, we find a significant impact for non bancassurance actors, robust to two monetary policy measures: the spread between long and short rates and the EU shadow rate from Wu and Xia (2016). The empirical analysis takes into account a range of individual features in order to further assess the channels at play. The article highlights the competitive advantage of bancassurance players that have benefited from the low-yield environment to gain market share throughout lower guaranteed rates and lower capital adequacy. Finally, the article offers some policy recommendations for regulators to mitigate financial instability associated with financial conglomerates and to improve risk-weighted incentives.
Global Impacts of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel (2024)
Abstract
This paper investigates how unexpected changes in US monetary policy influence global dynamics, with a particular focus on the remittance channel. We analyze monthly data from 13 major remittance-sending countries and 41 recipient countries, utilizing the local projections method developed by Jordà (2005). Our results reveal that an unexpected tightening of US monetary policy not only slows down the US economy but also exerts significant adverse effects on major remittance-sending countries. Consequently, remittance outflows decrease, affecting the economies of recipient countries. The magnitude of these effects varies depending on the recipient economies' reliance on remittance inflows. Specifically, countries for which remittance inflows constitute between 1 to 4 percent of their GDP tend to experience augmented inflows, thereby enhancing their resilience against the global economic repercussions triggered by US monetary policy tightening. Conversely, countries with remittance inflows surpassing 4 percent of their GDP witness diminished inflows and more pronounced recessionary effects
Projects
Shiny App - Cumulative inflation tool
US Monetary policy shocks comparison table
(More info on Monetary Policy Shocks in the research section)
Experience
September 2022-
PhD candidate Paris Nanterre University, Paris (France)
Subject: Monetary policy, Financial stability and Spillovers
Chapter 1: Monetary policy, solvency and profitability of life insurers in a low yield environment
Chapter 2: Remittances and the international transmission of US monetary policy
TBA
Teaching assistant (September 2022- July 2023):
Introduction to econometrics and data analysis - Master management du risque et de l'innovation en assurance (MRIA)
September 2020- August 2022
Direction Générale du Trésor, French Treasury, Mexico City (Mexico)
Economic and Financial Attaché at the Regional Economic Service of the French Embassy in Mexico
Analysing and overseeing the macroeconomic performances of Mexico and Central American countries (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica).
Drafting reports on regional economic affairs such as public debt, remmittances or the informal sector.
Contributing to the Treasury's positions on IMF, OECD and multilateral banks' projects and programs in these countries.
Coordinating a cooperation project between France and Mexico on fiscal and customs reform, in association with the French Development Agency.
Contributing to the bilateral economic and financial dialogue between France and Mexico.
January 2020- August 2020
BNP Paribas - Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB), Paris (France)
Intern at the Credit Risk department
Credit risk analysis of EMEA insurance sector
Annual reviews of entities (Rating, financial and qualitative analysis)
Monitoring of new and existing financial regulations (as Solvency II for instance)
Analysis of macroeconomic environment (impact of low-yield environment on insurers, assessing the impact of Covid-19)
Languages
Spanish Native
French Native
English Fluent (C1 IELTS)
Russian Beginner (A2 level)
Skills
R Advanced
STATA Advanced
LaTeX Advanced
Python Proficient
EVIEWS Proficient
Octoparse Proficient
Econometrics - Time series, Panel data, Non linear econometrics, Vector autoregression (VAR), Local projections
Macroeconomics - DSGE model analysis, macrofinancial theoretical models
Web scraping
Data analysis
Excellent communication
Experience drafting policy briefings
Links