China's Expansionist Designs

Our capstone team, made up of six Bush School graduate students in the final year, forecasted the potential outcomes related to the tensions between China and other nations in the South China Sea. The project was the result of a partnership between the Bush School of Government and Public Service, public affairs graduate school within Texas A&M, and Stratfor, the leading geopolitical intelligence platform. The capstone coordinator is Professor Ronald Sievert, former International and National Security Coordinator at the Department of Justice.

Our core research task was to analyze and forecast the political, economic, and security evolution of Taiwan and the Philippines related to U.S. priorities and Chinese strategies. The real-world problem identified by our client is China's expansionist vision. Mid- and long-term forecasts help Stratfor partners such as companies, governments, and global organizations make informed decisions. The main industries with interests in such knowledge include the semiconductor, aerospace, defense, and general manufacturing supply chain.

To answer our core question, we evaluated the situation of the region. Our research started with a background of the relationship architecture. We continued with our predictions for 5, 10, 15, and 20 years for the outcomes in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. To justify them, we then presented the factors which indicate the reasons behind our forecasts. They will help corporations and even Presidents make informed decisions.

4. Attended speaker series to dive deeper into the topic:

i. The Economic Statecraft Program, Texas A&M

• Dr. Aaron Friedberg, Senior Advisor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, co-director of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs’s Center for International Security Studies.

• Dr. Meg Rithmire, F. Warren MacFarlan associate professor in the Business, Government, and International Economy Unit, Harvard Business School.

• Dr. Rachel Odell, Research Fellow in the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute and an expert in U.S. strategy toward Asia, Chinese foreign policy, and maritime disputes with a Ph.D. at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

• Dr. Margaret Pearson, Distinguished Scholar-Teacher in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, College Park.

ii. Global Value Chains Policy Talk, TAMU Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy

• Dr. Gary Gereffi, Founding Director, Duke Global Value Chains Center.

• Dr. Eleftherios "Lefteris" Iakovou, Harvey Hubbell Professor of Industrial Distribution, Texas A&M, Director, Manufacturing and Logistics Innovation Initiatives, TEES.

There are many lessons that I learned as part of this capstone team. First, I learned to solve a real-world problem as part of an academic research team. This included several meetings with the client to understand the expectations for the deliverables. Secondly, I learned how to work in a team with greater power distance, which means several layers in leadership or coordination. I adapted to a fast-paced and dynamic environment that required me to have a very wide breadth of knowledge as well as depth into my area of expertise. Finally, I learned how to communicate effectively with my colleagues and peers. I expressed my points of view anytime I felt the direction of the work deviated from the way I see the situation. Especially in the case of predictions, it is very hard to have a consensus. By speaking up, we could debate other possibilities for things to change in the future. I also shared my concerns when things did not go the right way at the team level. After expressing our thoughts and worries, leaders knew what coordination efforts needed to be adapted for improved team progress.