Oleg Gurshev

Thesis topic: "Essays on trade and foreign direct investment"

Supervisor:  Andrzej Cieslik

Job market paper:

• From Russia with love: theory and empirical evidence on profit shifting and capital flight across borders

Abstract:   This paper uses unique data on majority-owned foreign manufacturing affiliates operating in Russia to estimate the impact of 2014 economic sanctions across affiliates of profit shifting and real multinational firms. In particular, we introduce a two-country model, where domestic producer conceals profits and conducts investment via its offshore parent back into its domestic market. In this setup, successful round-trip investment depends on the degree of financial barriers and the firm's ability to bypass (partially or fully) such obstacles. Further, we use accounting data to find empirical evidence that the profitability of Cyprus-owned affiliates has increased after the introduction of sanctions in comparison to affiliates held by real firms.

Peer-reviewed publications:

• Relative factor endowments, foreign direct investment and tax planning of multinational firms: an empirical investigation into cross-country data. Journal of Baltic Economics (2023). (with A. Cieślik)

• Foreign direct investment and international trade across the former Soviet economies: What do we know after 30 years of research?. Journal of Economics and Management (2023). 

• Trade policies in Central Asia after EUEA enlargement and after Russian WTO accession: Regionalism and integration into the world economy revisited. Eurasian Geography and Economics (2023). (with A. Cieślik)

• Factor Endowments, Economic Integration, Sanctions, and Offshores: Evidence from Inward FDI in Russia. Comparative Economic Studies (2022). (with A. Cieślik)

• Friends with or without benefits? An empirical review of trade integration between some of the post-Soviet economies. Eurasian Econ Rev (2022) (with A. Cieślik)

• Between the Eurozone crisis and the Brexit: the decade of British outward FDI into Europe. Empir Econ (2021). (with Cieślik A., Hamza S.)

• Factor Endowments, Economic Integration, Round-Tripping, and Inward FDI: Evidence from the Baltic economies. J. Risk Financial Manag, 14(8), 348, 2021. [Special Issue on FDI and Trade] (with Cieślik A.)

• BITs, colony ties, and offshore centers: the case of United Kingdom outward FDI.  Journal of Economic Integration, 36(2), 2021. (with Hamza S.)

• Determinants of inward foreign direct investment in Ukraine: Does political stability matter?. International Journal of Management and Economics , 56(3), 2020. (with Cieślik A.)

• What determines foreign direct investment in Russia?. Central European Economic Journal,  6(1), 2019.

Contact:

oleggurshev@gmail.com

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