Date: May 12, 2023

Presenter: Marc F. Bellemare, University of Minnesota

Title: "Commodity Price Shocks and Rural Mortality"

Abstract: "In the late 2010s, in the midst of the longest economic expansion in the history of the United States, national and international media outlets were citing commodity prices and financial stress as significant factors affecting the mental health of US farmers. Most such stories drew parallels between then-current agricultural conditions and the conditions farmers faced during the farm crisis of the 1980s, and they emphasized farmer suicides and the unique set of risk factors farmers face. We look at whether economic conditions can cause death by looking at the relationship between commodity price shocks and rural mortality for the period 1980 to 2016 in 485 counties across 16 Midwestern US states. As outcome variables, we look at both the crude and age-adjusted death rates. As treatment variables, we look at state-level commodity price shocks and global commodity price shocks for corn and soybeans---the dominant crops in the US Midwest---interacted with how much of those crops is grown within a county. In other words, our treatment variable captures the farm revenues within a given county for each crop. For identification, we rely on a two-way, county and time fixed effects strategy. For robustness, we also instrument farm revenues with a measure of drought severity. Our results support the notion that negative commodity price shocks are translate into increases in rural mortality. "