Portugal currently has one of the highest shares of renewable electricity in Europe, with wind and solar production playing an increasingly significant role in the power generation system. This transition makes short- and medium-term weather forecasting, and its uncertainty, increasingly central to grid operation, the electricity market, and the planning of new farms. 

Numerical prediction and numerical modelling of meteorological phenomena have recently evolved significantly recent years. With increasing computing capacity, models have incorporated more and more components (e.g. dynamic vegetation, aerosols, chemistry, etc.) and use increasingly higher resolutions, allowing for a more detailed characterization of renewable resources in areas with complex terrain and off the coast. Increased computational capacity has also enabled the development of high-resolution model ensembles. Parallel to the development of dynamic models, we have seen the introduction of Artificial Intelligence to build, in tandem, climate system predictions and projections that are as reliable as possible. Even while it is now feasible to reproduce catastrophic events and create high-resolution climate projections, the observational network still has significant gaps in terms of both spatial coverage and the coverage of some important variables. Improvements at this stage, linked to a more extensive use of satellite observations, have enabled the enhancement and stronger validation of computational models.

Currently, we are witnessing a change in the renewable resource distributions, they are becoming more broadened towards higher values, leading to a increase in frequency and intensity extreme events. In addition, as compound behaviour, cascading effects and risks become apparent and pose an increasing threat to society and infrastructure as well as the biosphere, e.g. power outages, floods, increased mortality rates, crop failures and forest fires. Future changes in these event characteristics, as well as changes in vulnerability and exposure, highlight the need to develop appropriate adaptation measures and promote the dissemination of knowledge among those responsible for monitoring and forecasting these events.

It is in this context that the 4th edition of the Numerical Weather Prediction Workshop in Portugal brings together researchers, forecasters, and energy systems engineers to discuss the state of the art in high-resolution atmospheric modeling, uncertainty quantification, and the application of artificial intelligence to renewable energy generation forecasting. 

The workshop aims to disseminate numerical forecasting research conducted in Portugal, promote new collaborations between academia, IPMA (Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere), and the renewable energy sector, and contribute to the enhancement of operational activity and meteorological research in the country. It also intends to attract new students to this area of operational meteorology, giving it greater visibility. 

We look forward to your contribution and hope we can count on you to share the workshop announcement with anyone who might be interested. The participation of young scientists is very welcome! 

Organização

Rita Cardoso (FCUL/IDL)

Maria José Monteiro (IPMA)

Margarida Belo-Pereira (IPMA/CITAB)

João Paulo Martins (ECMWF)

Rui Salgado, Flávio Couto (U Évora/CREATE)

Mariana Bernardino (IST/CENTEC)

José Castanheira, David Carvalho (UA/CESAM)

João Santos (UTAD/CITAB)

José Cruz  (UTAD/CITAB)

José Luis Argaín (UAlg)