My dissertation project examined the effect of clientelism on party system change in Indonesia (available here). It has resulted in numerous publications, listed below.
The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Systems (2018)
Abstract: This chapter examines the evolution of the Indonesian electoral system and its effects on political outcomes. Although Indonesia has repeatedly chosen to conduct elections using proportional representation, electoral rules have changed considerably over time. The chapter traces two trajectories of reform in the post-Suharto era: one restricting opportunities for small parties and the other restricting the power of party leadership. Efforts to shape party system outcomes using electoral rules have succeeded in some areas, particularly in preventing the formation of regional partisan cleavages. Yet the proliferation of political parties in the face of reforms meant to consolidate the party system underline the limits of institutional design.
Asian Journal of Political Science (2017)
Abstract: Existing research has uncovered a link between religious practice and political ethnocentrism. Religious individuals are relatively inclined to both support policies that benefit their own ethnic group and support political competitors seeking to represent them. These findings are broadly consistent with a large body of literature that examines the relationship between religion and ethnic prejudice. To date, empirical research has concentrated overwhelmingly on Western, Christian contexts. There is, however, reason to believe that Islamic practice may produce more universalistic beliefs and attitudes. This paper examines the relationship between religious participation and political ethnocentrism in Indonesia, this world’s largest Muslim-majority country. Using survey data collected during the lead-up to the 2009 national elections, this paper examines the relationship between religious practice and expressed preference for co-ethnic political leadership. It finds that a respondent’s self-reported level of religious activity strongly correlates with stated preference for co-ethnic leadership. These findings bolster confidence that the relationship between religious participation and ethnocentrism holds beyond Western Christian contexts. For Indonesia, deepening Islamic practice could thus predict a rise in ethnocentrism, threatening the country’s reputation for tolerance.
Electoral Studies (2015)
Abstract: The personal vote literature proceeds from the assumption that personalism has an independent effect on policy outcomes. Institutions appear as exogenous variables that structure incentives for personalism, and the personalism of electoral competition effects legislator behavior once in office. This paper finds that existing state spending and prevailing patterns of policy implementation can have an independent effect on the personalism of political competition. When political fortunes depend on the personal vote, and candidates can promise to deliver clientelistic benefits to voters, both voters and candidates have an incentive to enter an enduring patron-client relationship. The clientelistic appeal, however, is only credible if voters expect the winning candidate will have goods to deliver once in office. The empirical section leverages cross-district variance in electoral personalism in Indonesia. It connects preference voting rates to pre-existing patterns of sub-national state spending. In electoral districts where the state played a dominant role in the economy, voters and candidates tended to form the type of patron-client bonds that resulted in high levels of preference voting.
Pacific Affairs (2014)
*Holland Prize, Outstanding Paper Published in Pacific Affairs
Abstract: The party system in Indonesia has expanded in the post-Suharto era. With each successive election, voters have spread their support across a wider array of parties. This has occurred despite deliberate institutional tweaks designed to consolidate the system by privileging large parties. Why has the party system expanded despite increasing institutional incentives to consolidate? This article places party system change in a broader context of decentralization and corruption. The decentralization and deconcentration of political power has opened multiple avenues for voters and elites to access state resources. Whereas major parties were expected to dominate resources in the immediate aftermath of the transition, changes to the formal and informal institutions eroded their control over the state. This has caused previously consolidated subnational party systems to fracture. The argument is demonstrated using narrative and newly constructed cross-district datasets. The paper develops the concept of rent opportunities, defined as the ability to access and abuse state resources. Party system expansion has been greatest in areas with high rent opportunities, where both voters and elites are particularly motivated by the competition for state resources. In these areas, characterized by large state sectors, the formerly authoritarian party (Golkar) initially won large electoral victories due, in part, to its control over patronage. As Golkar lost its ability to monopolize resources, the party system fractured. Voting for small parties surged and the party machine was replaced by a partisan melee. My argument exposes the limits of institutional engineering and underlines the formative role corruption has had on the evolution of Indonesia's party system.
"Like Ants to Sugar: Candidate Entry in Indonesia"
“Strategic Behaviour in a Non-partisan Election: Evidence from Indonesia's Senate.”
Following my PhD program, I worked for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada as the program manager for surveys. Beyond the public survey reports, this research has resulted in a series of articles examining the basis for Canadian views towards Asia.
Canadian Foreign Policy Journal (2018)
Abstract: Chinese government officials and some Canadian foreign policy experts have challenged the content and tone of Canadian media's coverage of China. Canadian media coverage is thought to negatively bias public opinion and thereby constrain foreign policy choices available to policymakers. Scholars of Canada–Japan relations worry that decreasing media attention could have longer term effects on bilateral ties. Through an analysis of over 30,000 articles appearing in three major Canadian news publications over a 15-year time span (2000–2015), we identify how news about these countries is framed to the Canadian public and how these frames change over time. Our central finding is that the Canadian media experienced a “twenty-first century discovery of China” in 2004–2005. The volume of coverage of Chinese economic news spiked, while coverage of political rights declined, portraying China as a leader in the global economy and therefore a viable economic partner. Yet we find that media coverage is only loosely tied to public opinion. Counterintuitively, Canadian attitudes toward China have become more negative with increased positive news coverage, while declining coverage of Japan is correlated with increasingly positive views of the country.
International Journal (2015)
*Marvin Gelber Prize, Best Article by a Junior Scholar, 2015.
Abstract: This paper asks: why do Canadians oppose trade deals with Asian countries but support them with Europe? While many Canadians view Asia's economically dynamic countries as important to Canada's future prosperity, they are hesitant to formalize ties with the same type of trade agreements they are willing to offer traditional trading partners. Using polls conducted by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, this paper identifies the demographic and attitudinal basis for the “trade support gap.” It finds that the gap is driven by factors that go beyond economic interest. Canadians prefer to strengthen economic ties with democratic countries that have strong human rights records. Furthermore, those who are worried that foreign control of the economy threatens national security and those who prefer ties with traditional allies are likely to support trade with the EU but not with Asian and other non-Asian emerging economies.
"Who is Afraid of Chinese Investment?" [with Amnit Litt], submitted for review
"Alliances, Regimes, and Cultural Affinity: The International Determinants of Opinions toward Trade Agreements.”
Why do rulers offer voting rights to new groups? In the last four decades, the world has seen a new wave of enfranchisement as electoral rights have been extended to non-resident citizens. But these rights have been accompanied by significant restrictions. My next project examines the logic of franchise extension. While most work to date emphasizes an exchange model, in which rulers who extend the electoral rights to receive benefits (e.g. votes, remittances) from the newly enfranchised, my work explores how institutional legacies shape enfranchisement decisions, determining types of restrictions and timing of franchise extension. The first contribution is a joint measurement effort with Elizabeth Wellman and Benjamin Nyblade entitled Extraterritorial Voting Rights and Restrictions Dataset [EVRR], launched at the 2018 American Political Science Association conference.