Peer Reviewed
Disappearing Research: Academic Control and Self-Censorship in China, the China Journal 94 (1). (with Elizabeth Plantan)
Featured on Financial Times, China Digital Times.
See a review by Andrea Ghiselli here.
Abstract: How does state censorship contribute to self-censorship in Chinese universities? How does self-censorship in turn affect academic output? This paper addresses these questions by unveiling the mechanisms of self-censorship and investigating their impact on social science research in and about China. First, we draw on in-depth interviews with scholars and students affiliated with Chinese universities to develop a typology of the mechanisms of self-censorship. Second, we analyze over 5,000 hand-coded publications of scholars based at US and Chinese universities from 1985 to 2022 to determine the consequences of self-censorship for the production of knowledge. The findings reveal which research topics have “disappeared” over time and which have “migrated” from Chinese- to English-language venues, often leading to broader self-censorship outcomes than the regime intended. Additionally, we find that US-based scholars are not immune to these pressures. These findings contribute to scholarship on authoritarianism, (self-)censorship, and academic freedom.
Do Chinese Loans Challenge Multilateral Creditors? Foreign Borrowing, Sovereignty, and Public Opinion in the Global South, the special issue on “Public Opinion and International Organizations” in Review of International Organizations, forthcoming. (with David Bulman and Kerry Ratigan)
Featured on NPR.
Previously in AidData Working Paper Series, #134.
Abstract: Foreign debt has become a ubiquitous economic challenge and a salient political issue across the Global South. Indebtedness to a foreign entity constrains the state, thereby infringing on a country’s sovereignty. Despite sparking protests and political action, scholars understand relatively little about how the public perceives debt and foreign lenders. We propose that the public is particularly sensitive to the sovereignty implications of foreign debt. Therefore, loans and lenders who are perceived as more likely to curtail sovereignty will be less attractive to Global South publics. We test these contentions through a pre-registered, large-scale survey experiment in nine Global South countries (n=8,762). We find that Global South publics are highly engaged in the issue of debt and concerned about the implications of debt for both sovereignty and the local economy. As a result, the public tends to prefer the traditional multilateral lenders, the IMF and World Bank, despite widespread and longstanding critiques of these lenders. The public is less favorable to bilateral lenders such as China and the US, and particularly China. As the first study of public opinion of debt in Global South countries and its implications for sovereignty, this research provides lessons for international financial institutions as well as insights regarding the durability of the liberal international order.
Firm’s Source Country or Project Characteristics? Survey Experiments on Preferences for Chinese Investment in the Global South, the Chinese Journal of International Politics, Volume 18, Issue 3, 2025, Pages 267–293, https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poaf006 . (with David Bulman and Kerry Ratigan)
Abstract: Do individuals favor a particular foreign investment project based mainly on the investing company’s source country or the characteristics of the investment project? We know surprisingly little about this question, particularly in the Global South, an increasingly important destination for foreign investment. Employing conjoint analysis and informational text treatments, our pre-registered study investigates how the public assesses Chinese investment, the extent to which source country and project characteristics shape preferences, and the implications of Chinese investor behavior for preferences for cooperation with China. We find that, against conventional wisdom, Global South publics do not discriminate against Chinese investment projects. We reveal the determinants of preferences towards Chinese investment in ten middleincome democracies in Sub-Saharan Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia (N=20,001). This research contributes to the literatures on foreign investment preference formation and global Chinese investment, a phenomenon with profound geopolitical implications.
Tournament style bargaining within boundaries: Setting targets in China’s Cadre Evaluation System. Journal of Contemporary China, 31(133), 116-135. (with Cai Zuo)
Featured on the China File.
Abstract: Are evaluation targets negotiable in China’s cadre evaluation system? If so, which ones and how are they negotiated? Little empirical work answers these questions, which reveals the reconciliation of political control with local governance considerations in a centralized system. This article bridges the literature on bureaucratic bargaining with that on the target responsibility system by examining intra-governmental bargaining in the performance target-setting process. In-depth interviews reveal a “tournament“ logic of target-setting bargaining. Drawing on interviews and an original dataset of personnel rules, we conceptualize and classify performance targets based on their negotiability. The findings bring to light the presence of bargaining, albeit bounded, in the top-down rational-instrumental mechanism of the target responsibility system, and the intricate relationship between merit and personal connections in political selection.
Book Chapter
"Chinese SOEs and the Legal Challenges in Peru's Public Procurement Sector," in edited volume "The Legal Dimensions of China's Presence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) ," forthcoming in The Globalization: Law and Policy series, Routledge. (with Claudia Martínez-Zúñigain)
Book Review
Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China by Martin K. Dimitrov, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2023, xix + 470 pp. The Developing Economies.
Working Papers
“De-Privatization for Visibility Projects: Political Incentives and Reversed Marketization in China’s Urban Bus Sector ”
Abstract: This article provides a political explanation for de-privatization in an authoritarian context. Using China’s urban bus sector as a case, I demonstrate how private firms can become obstacles to launching what I call 'visibility projects'—a specific type of public project aimed at increasing government officials' visibility in politics and career prospects, but which are highly costly and often compromise business interests in the sector. When a sector is chosen for visibility projects, government officials often seek financial contributions and operational changes from business in the sector, creating an uneven playing field between private companies and state-owned enterprises. Private companies, facing hard budget constraints, are more likely to resist visibility projects than state-owned companies, which can ultimately lead to de-privatization by the state. I show these dynamics with a quantitative analysis based on an original dataset, a process-tracing case study, and in-depth interviews.
“How Perceptions of Democratic Backsliding Shape Preferences for Cooperation with China” (with David Bulman and Kerry Ratigan)
Abstract: Does a world experiencing democratic backsliding pose less of a threat to an authoritarian global power such as China? We answer this question using survey experiments in a large-scale, population-representative survey in ten middle-income democracies in South America, Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. First, using original targeted questions, we identify the relationship between an individual's perception of democratic quality in their home country and their favorability towards and preference for cooperation with China. Subsequently, we also explore the mechanism driving this relationship. Using randomized informational text treatments, we test the following hypothesis: information on global democratic backsliding increases public anxiety of the quality of democracy in one’s home country; such anxiety changes how the public view China both in terms of favorability and cooperation preferences. We focus on ten democracies in the Global South to capture populations that are substantively significant and understudied, and that have substantial political and economic ties with China.
"The Spillover Effects of Environmental Stewardship for China’s Global Leadership" (with David Bulman and Kerry Ratigan)
Abstract: Globally, China leads in green technology and renewable energy investment, while also being the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Emphasizing the importance of this issue, in 2021, China announced the “Green Belt and Road Initiative,” which highlighted a key objective as “the capacity to craft the China story.” Meanwhile, China has become an increasingly active participant in global governance. How does information about China as a green investor or leading polluter shape preferences for China as a global leader? Based on a pre-registered, population-representative survey experiment in ten countries in the Global South, we find that new information about China’s environmental stewardship not only impacts preferences for China as a global leader in environmental issues, but also in other domains including health, trade, and security, producing a cascade effect. Our data suggest that the mechanism for this effect consists of updating perceptions of China as possessing (or lacking) the leadership qualities of responsiveness, effectiveness, and innovative. This study contributes to the research on global perceptions of China and leadership in global governance, with important implications for the future of great power competition.
"Central Bank Independence in Autocracies" (with Michael Aklin, Andreas Kern, and Jack Seddon)
Abstract: Despite a recent surge in the academic literature on central bank independence (CBI), little is known about its drivers in authoritarian states. Our theoretical argument starts from the simple idea that no country is an island. Whereas autocratic regimes possessing abundant resource wealth have access to large amounts of hard currency to pay for imports, their resource-poor peers have to earn hard currency through an opening to international trade. These resource-poor authoritarian rulers will opt for CBI in order to insure against the disruptive political and economic forces arising from their reliance on international trade. To test these predictions, we draw on carefully selected historical cases and augment them with a large-N analysis. We show that countries that engage in more trade and have fewer resources tend to make their central banks more independent. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating international trade when analyzing the institutional design of central banks.
“Do public perceptions of China impact voting in the Global South?” (with David Bulman and Kerry Ratigan)
“When to Embezzle? Patterns of Corruption Among China’s Municipal Officials”