Measuring Precise TFP Growth under Trade Liberalization: Stripping away Omitted Price Bias and Demand Shocks, The World Economy (Forthcoming). Accepted August 2025.
Adjustments in markups after a Free Trade Agreement: An analysis of Pakistani firms gaining increased access to China. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2023.
Strategic Trade Policy for Pakistan’s Textile Sector in 2018: Enhancing High Value-Added Exports through Low-Priced Intermediate Input. The Pakistan Development Review, 62:2, pp. 145–166, 2023.
{PhD Job Market Paper} Trading textiles along the new silk route: The impact on Pakistani firms of gaining market access to China. Journal of Development Economics, Volume 158, September 2022.
Increasing Exports through Tariff Reductions on Intermediate Goods. Lahore Journal of Economics, Volume 24, 2019.
The impact of Remittances versus Parental Absence on the Well ‘being of children: Evidence from Rural Punjab. Lahore Journal of Economics, Volume 22-2 July-December 2017.
Pakistan’s Experience with Pakistan-China FTA: Lessons for CPEC. Lahore Journal of Economics, Special Edition, September 2017.
Asymmetrical Algorithmic Pricing Frequencies and Market Power: A Q-learning Approach
Abstract: This study employs Q-learning to examine how algorithms with faster pricing capabilities (or frequencies) affect market dynamics in a Bertrand pricing framework. Results show that all agents achieve profits exceeding the Bertrand competitive level while maintaining supra-competitive prices. The market displays price dispersion, with slower-frequency firms setting higher prices while higher-frequency firms undercut them, resembling a Stackelberg leader-follower dynamic. The research provides additional evidence that algorithmic comparative advantages fundamentally alter competitive dynamics, even when self-learning algorithms are used and firms only discover their comparative differences through market interactions. Various extensions are tested in this study, including product heterogeneity, pricing frequency variations, and behavioral fairness assumptions.
Environmental Costs of Foreign Market Access: Firm-Level Evidence from Pakistan
Abstract: Trade liberalization offers economic benefits through increased access to international markets. However, given global climate change, it is important to consider the potential negative impact on the environment. If the advantages of trade liberalization come at the expense of the environment, the economic losses will offset some of the gains. This study investigates the effects of two instances of trade policy changes on firm-level carbon emissions by Pakistani firms. In 2005, Pakistan and China signed a free trade agreement (FTA), which expanded the access of Pakistani firms to Chinese markets. Simultaneously, the Multifibre Agreement (MFA), which imposed quotas on textile exports from developing countries to the United States and the European Union, was abolished. These exogenous events resulted in foreign demand shocks for the Pakistani textile sector. By focusing on textile manufacturers in Punjab, Pakistan, we analyze the impact of the FTA and the end of the MFA on firm-level emissions resulting from changes in access to the Chinese and US markets. We find that the Pakistan-China FTA resulted in a rise in Pakistani exports to China, with firms moving up the quality ladder. There was also an overall increase in emissions, but no significant increase in emissions per unit of output. However, the end of the MFA resulted in a decrease in Pakistani exports to the US due to increased competition from other countries or the strong “third-party” effects. As a result, firms moved away from their core product towards dirtier, low quality and high-emission intensity products.
Foreign Demand Volatility and Domestic Market Performance: Firm-Level Evidence from China's Manufacturing Sector
Abstract: This study investigates how foreign demand shocks affect domestic market performance among Chinese manufacturing firms during 2006–2009, a period marked by global economic uncertainties. Leveraging a unique, micro-level dataset that combines the Annual Survey of Industrial Enterprises with Chinese Customs Trade Statistics, the analysis focuses on over 28,000 exporting firms with positive domestic sales. Employing a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach with lagged real exchange rate fluctuations as instruments, the study identifies the causal impact of foreign demand volatility on domestic sales, while accounting for firm heterogeneity in size, productivity, and ownership. The findings reveal a robust substitution effect: increases in foreign demand systematically reduce domestic sales, especially for small, low-productivity, and non-state-owned enterprises, which face pronounced capacity and financial constraints. In contrast, large, highly productive, and state-owned firms exhibit weaker substitution effects, suggesting greater operational flexibility and institutional buffers. These results emphasise the importance of capacity constraints and firm-specific characteristics in shaping the domestic consequences of external shocks.
Global Patterns in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions: Understanding the Economic Growth and Income Inequality Connection
Abstract: This paper explores the complex interplay between income inequality, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emissions. We use panel data from multiple countries for the years 1971 – 2021 to examine how income inequality and economic growth influence carbon dioxide emissions. Our results provide support against the trade-off between income inequality and carbon dioxide emissions. We lend support to the “consumption hypothesis” under which people with lower incomes might be forced to consume cheaper, high emission intensity products, but as income levels rise, people may care more for the environment and prefer environmentally friendly products, as suggested by the “political process effect”. Moreover, we find support for the inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions, lending support to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. We find the turning point of this relationship to be $4,658. We also find evidence of the positive effect of income inequality on carbon dioxide emissions increases with rising GDP per capita.
Investment of State Owned Enterprises in Green Technology: Firm Level Evidence from China
Theme: Using Chinese data, we are interested to explore how Chinese firms are able to upgrade their technology through interactions with foreign markets via exports and imports. We are particularly interested in the kind of technology state owned versus non state owned firms invest in regards to the environment (green technology). It is well known that in China state-invested firms can better access to political and financial resources, especially when the technology they use align with the country’s national strategies. They are also known to have soft, instead of hard, budget constraints, meaning that they can be bailed out by the government even when they are in financial troubles, thus behaving like a political institution rather than a for-profit organisation.
Challenges of women on E-commerce platform in Indonesia (Focus group for this project was funded by PEDL)
Theme: This project aims to explore gender specific e-commerce barriers in Indonesia. Our initial interaction with entrepreneurs in Indonesia suggest that while there is a perception that e-commerce narrows down the gender gap, there still exist differences between how men and women think about the benefits and challenges of e-commerce. More importantly, the gender gap still exists in the earnings and training received by women. Thus, while the general perception is that the gender gap has been narrowed down by e-commerce, the actual reality might be a bit different. The perceived gains of narrow gender gap in e-commerce usage may be bigger than the actual gains. Currently we are in the process of designing an RCT for this project in collaboration with BRIN Indonesia.