Since October 2026, Cerved and Collegio Carlo Alberto publish a quarterly Macroforecasting Report.
The projections are produced by the Cerved Macroeconomic Forecasting Model, a multi-layer framework that goes from the global economy down to Italy, delivering forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables, cross-country recession probabilities and scenario analysis.
I am one of the core developers of the model, together with Andrea Savio and Fabrizio Balda, under the scientific guidance of Ivan Petrella.
The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of Cerved Group or the Collegio Carlo Alberto.