Inflation–Unemployment: A Comparative Study of India and Myanmar During 2012–2021
Economic Slowdown, Unemployment, and Inflation, Sept 2025
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon (Milton Friedman, 1963). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time and is typically a broad measure. On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia defines the unemployment rate (UNE) as the indicator most commonly used for understanding conditions in the labor market, referring to the demand for labor (from organizations and businesses) and the supply of labor (from households).
Inflation and the employment rate are major determinants of economic development. A high UNE poses significant challenges to the global economy, especially for developing countries like India. Every country should strive to strengthen its economy by controlling inflation and unemployment. For developing countries such as India and Myanmar, it is crucial to formulate policies to address rising inflation and unemployment.
The objectives of this chapter are to examine the inflation and unemployment trends in India and Myanmar and to analyze the comparative relationship between inflation and unemployment in these two countries 76over the past decade (2012–2021). This study is conceptual and descriptive in nature. Regression and correlation analysis are employed to analyze the data. Secondary data from the World Bank are used in this study.
The findings indicate a positive correlation between inflation and unemployment in India, whereas in Myanmar, the correlation is negative. Thus, the Phillips Curve applies in Myanmar but not in India. Additionally, in both India and Myanmar, inflation is insignificantly related to GDP, while unemployment is significantly related to GDP at the 5% level of significance.
Inflation–Unemployment: A Comparative Study of India and Myanmar Durin
Htun, N. M. & Fernandes, J. (2025). Inflation-Unemployment: A Comparative Study of India and Myanmar. In S. Maiti & T. Gupta (1st edition), Interviewing: strategy, techniques, and tactics (75-88). New York: Apple Academic Press.
Exploring India's Trade Pattern with BIMSTEC Countries: A Gravity Model Analysis
International Journal of Social Science & Management Studies (I.J.S.S.M.S.), July 2025
As the world becomes the globalization, regional integration is a medium of economic integration. India also plays a pivotal role in different regional and international grouping such as BIMSTEC. The objective of the study is to explore trading pattern of India with BIMSTEC member countries using gravity model approach. The secondary data used in this study is extracted from various sources such as World Bank, CEPII for a period of 1997-2024. The Gravity model of trade is used to analyse India's trade pattern with the other BIMSTEC nations by carrying out several tests such as cross-sectional dependency, panel co-integration and panel OLS estimation method. The study's independent variables, GDP, per capita GDP, Trade GDP ratio, common border, and BIMSTEC membership, all had a significant beneficial impact on trade between India and country j while tax and distance are negatively correlated with total trade of the nations.
(PDF) Exploring India's Trade Pattern with BIMSTEC Countries: A Gravity Model Analysis
Citation: Htun, N. M. & Vishwanatha (2025). Exploring India's Trade Pattern with BIMSTEC Countries: A Gravity Model Analysis. International Journal of Social Science & Management Studies, 11(6), 22–28.
The Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment in India
International Journal of Research in Entrepreneurship & Business Studies, Apr 11, 2025
Purpose: The objectives of the study are to investigate the statistical correlation between economic growth (measured by GDP growth) and the unemployment rate in India and to analyse the direction and strength of causality between economic growth and unemployment, thereby determining whether one variable significantly influences the other.
Design/methodology/approach: This study employs a quantitative research methodology, utilizing time-series data from 1991 to 2024 based on the data from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Forbes India and Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation using Correlation Test and Granger Causality test to examine the correlation between GDP growth and unemployment rate and the causality between them with the help of EViews Statistical Software.
Findings: The findings revealed a negative correlation between economic growth and the Unemployment rate in India. There is no Granger causality between Economic Growth and the Unemployment rate in both directions. This study delves into the nuances of how economic expansion impacts employment trends and vice versa.
Research Implications: The implications derived from this analysis are pivotal for designing effective policies that can foster inclusive growth and address unemployment challenges in India.
Social Implications: This study highlights the need for inclusive economic policies that not only promote growth but also generate employment opportunities. Addressing unemployment is essential for reducing inequality and improving living standards in India’s rapidly transforming economy.
Originality / Value: The novelty of this study lies in its extended data range from 1991 to 2024, which addresses gaps in previous research. It also applies both correlation analysis and Granger causality tests, offering a deeper understanding of the dynamic relationship between economic growth and unemployment in India. This dual-method approach, combined with updated data, provides fresh insights and strengthens the empirical foundation for policy and academic discussions.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Unemployment, Time-series, Correlation, Granger Causality.
Citation: Htun, N. M. (2025). The Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment in India. International Journal of Research in Entrepreneurship & Business Studies, 6(2), 37–48. https://doi.org/10.47259/ijrebs.2025.624
Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Myanmar
Inya Economics Journal · Jun 16, 2024
Every government must allocate the budget as the expenditure on various sectors in the particular country for the development of it. According to Keynesian economics, if the government spending rises while all other spending components stay constant, output will increase. However, Wagner's law shows that increased government spending is likely to harm economic growth. Sethi (2016) discovers a long-run relationship between economic growth and government spending, as well as unidirectional causality from government spending to economic growth. The purpose of this research is to determine the trends in the growth rate of government spending and GDP from 2011 to 2023, as well as to analyse the relationship between government spending and economic growth in Myanmar (2011-2023). The data used in this study are from secondary sources such as the World Bank, the Ministry of Planning and Finance of Myanmar’s website, other Myanmar Government websites, and previous studies. Different types of analysis are used to obtain scientific results, including correlation, regression, and the Granger Causality Test. The findings show that there is a rejection of the unit root for Government spending (Expenditure) at level but Economic Growth (GDP) at first difference. And there is a positive correlation between Economic Growth (GDP) and Government Spending (Expenditure) in Myanmar. And Government spending (Expenditure) granger cause Economic Growth (GDP) of Myanmar but Economic Growth (GDP) does not granger cause Government spending (Expenditure) at 5% level of significance. Keywords: Myanmar, GDP, Government Spending, Correlation, Granger Causality
Citation: Htun, N. M. (2024). Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Myanmar. Inya Economic Journal, 3(1), 33–57. https://www.inyaeconomics.org/issues/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR22GtrPLZub8su4Dw3OOi4GtvXCzLxXly5fGGKFvN-NHmPfw8Qpv6Mxxc0_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw
A Study of Myanmar's Trade Performance with other BIMSTEC Nations in the post transition period (2011-2023)
International Journal of Development Research · May 30, 2024
Since the past, the country has cooperated with other countries in economy, and other fields which play a vital role in the development in these days. Countries collaborate on a regional or international level. As a result, Myanmar is a member in regional organisations such as BIMSTEC comprised of seven nations (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). This paper examines Myanmar's trade performance in BIMSTEC after Myanmar’s transition period. It aims to understand BIMSTEC countries' GDP, inflation, and unemployment trends, and to examine Myanmar's trade performance with other BIMSTEC countries. This paper used secondary data on Myanmar's trade with other BIMSTEC countries; GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates in these BIMSTEC countries; and data of exports and imports in US dollars from 2011-2012 to 2022-2023. The collected data is analysed for Correlation, Regression, and One-Way ANOVA, along with data interpretation. According to the study, Myanmar has positive correlation with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka but negative correlation with India, Nepal, and Thailand. It cannot be discovered in the case of Bhutan. Thailand is Myanmar's best trading partner among the BIMSTEC countries, and Myanmar's trade relations are not significantly different with all other BIMSTEC nations.
Citation: Htun, N. M., & Vishwanatha (2024). A Study of Myanmar's Trade Performance with other BIMSTEC Nations in the post transition period (2011-2023). International Journal of Development Research, 1(5), 65648-65654.
The Impact of COVID-19 on Myanmar Tourism
FuturisT Trends in Social Sciences (IIP Series) · May 2024
COVID-19 spread all over the world. Almost all the business sectors of the world are affected by this global pandemic. Tourism sector is not a single industry, but it is connected with many other industries directly or indirectly. Tourism sector is important for Myanmar because this sector contributes GDP for the country. This research paper points out the tourism sector of Myanmar and the impact of COVID-19 on tourism sector. In this paper, the difference between the number of international visitors and impacts on Myanmar Tourism sector are mentioned. This research paper gave the recommendations to rescue the tourism sector.
https://iipseries.org/viewpaper.php?pid=3551&pt=the-impact-of-covid-19-on-myanmar-tourism
Citation: Htun, N. M. (2024). The Impact of COVID-19 on Myanmar Tourism. Futurist Trends in Social Sciences, 3(12), IIP Series, Volume 3, May, 2024, pp. 316-337, e-ISBN: 978-93-5747-357-6, DOI/Link: https://www.doi.org/10.58532/V3BISOP5CH11
SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION (SCO): ITS IMPACTS ON INDIAN ECONOMY
International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews (IJRAR) Volume 10, Issue 3, Aug 2023
Every country has bilateral, trilateral and multilateral relations with other countries for different sectors of the country. And also cooperates with global organizations like UN, WTO and regional organizations, like Bay of Bengal Initiative for BIMSTEC, ASEAN and SCO etc. This paper is about Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the impacts on Indian Economy, prospects and also challenges. SCO, an intergovernmental organization, was formed in 2001 and based in Beijing, China. The main goals of SCO are to promote regional security and economic cooperation, share experience in the development of domestic economic reforms, and coordinate and develop a common strategy for the development of the region. In this paper, it focuses on SCO, its background, structure and the relationship between SCO and India and its Economy. The study also focuses on the economic cooperation with other SCO countries and its impact on Indian economy. The secondary data is used in the study for data analysis. The findings reveal that India being SCO member state has more positive impacts than the negative impacts. Energy cooperation, dealing with Pakistan and China and economic cooperation are the prospects of being SCO member and India-Pakistan Rivalry as the challenge.
(PDF) SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION (SCO): ITS IMPACTS ON INDIAN ECONOMY
Citation: Htun, N. M., & Fernandes, J. (2023). Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): Its impacts on Indian economy. International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews (Ijrar), 10(3), 140-146.
Analysis of FY 2023 24 Budget for Education in India
Avinya, Department of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University) · Aug 3, 2023
India is a fast growing economies in the world. In India, 40% of the population is under 18 (children population). So, budget on children population is important for the country. By increasing the budget for the future of the children, India can demonstrate its responsibility towards the future of the children. Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented FY 2023-2024 Union Budget in parliament on Feb 1, 2023. That budget is the last budget of Modi government 2.0 before 2024 general election. The share of education budget is still under 3% of total expenditure although NEP 2020 recommends the education budget should be 6% of GDP. So, the Indian government should increase the education budget at least 6% of GDP from next year for the development of the country.
(PDF) Analysis of FY 2023-24 Budget for Education in India
Comparative Analysis of Human Development Index between Bhutan and India
JAIN (Deemed-to-be University) Conference Proceedings of National Conference on Innovations in Emerging Areas and Sustainability · Apr 1, 2023
Human Development Index Report has been being prepared by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) since 1990. Human Development Index composed of three components. Health Index: Life expectancy at Birth, Education Index: Expected Years of Schooling and Mean Years of Schooling; and Income Index: GNI per capita. This study purposes to know the trends of human development index in Bhutan and India, to compare the human development index of Bhutan and India and to understand their correlation between HDI value and GDP growth in each country. This research paper is quantitative one and secondary data which are from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is used and the statistical tool (E View) is used to analyze the correlation of human development indexes and GDP of Bhutan and India. This study portrays India’s HDI value is more than Bhutan from 2013 to 2016 but Bhutan’s HDI value is higher than India after 2016. The HDI ranks of both countries are between 126 and 142 and both countries have the medium Human Development Index during ten years (2012-2021). The analysis shows that Bhutan has the negative correlation between HDI value and GDP Growth and so does India. Keywords: Bhutan, India, HDI, GDP, correlation.
(PDF) Comparative Analysis of Human Development Index between Bhutan and India
BIMSTEC: ROLE OF INDIA
Avinya, Department of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University) · Jan 6, 2023
Every country establishes the different types of relations with other countries for economic development, technology access and so on. India also established relations with other countries on a regional level as well as on an international level and BIMSTEC is one of the regional organizations India is a part of.
Economy in Kashmir
Avinya, Department of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University) · Jan 1, 2023
The economy is important for everyone. It is especially important for the countries in this world. If the country's economy is not good, it can impact politics, education, health, and other sectors. Like, the economy of the states in the country is also important for the country's economy and vice versa. Let's point out one example, the Economy in Kashmir here.
BUDGETING IN INDIA
Avinya, Department of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University) · Jul 10, 2022
Everybody needs to work for their living and they should be aware of their finances and how it is being dealt with. Every person will track their daily income and expenses in order to decide whether to spend or save and to make other decisions regarding their money. Their daily financial income and expenses which is kind of a personal budgeting. Like an individual person, a country should know their budget. So, what is the budget? Is it important or not? Here, for the countries in this world, the budget is not a buffet. It’s the taxpayers' money and therefore the government has a responsibility to utilise it efficiently and effectively.
Public Budgeting in Myanmar During Five Years (2016-2021)
Royal Book Publishing, JNANA CHILUME-2022 (5th Annual Series National Conference) Conference Proceedings · Jun 1, 2022
This paper describes the public budgeting in Myanmar during five years (2016 - 2021). In this paper, it points out the public expenditure of the Union Budget on each year from 2016 to 2021 and the comparisons of the expenditure on Union Ministries in Myanmar. And this paper also mentions the expenditure in States and Regions of Myanmar for five years (from Fiscal Year 2016 - 2017 to Fiscal Year 2020 - 2021) and the comparisons of the public expenditure of those States and Regions of Myanmar. The purpose of this paper is to know in which sectors the government uses the public budgeting for the people and in which sectors are spent most and least. After studying this paper, you are getting to know the public budgeting in Myanmar for five years and how the government allocates the public budget on Union and States/ Regions for the development of the country, Myanmar.
(PDF) Public Budgeting in Myanmar During Five years (2016-2021)