Journal Article
Journal Article
The Digital Effect: How E-money is Changing the Demand for Cash in Indonesia. (with J.F. Rezki, Y. C. Justinus, M. Adriansyah, R. Vandika, H. Muhammad). 2026. Economic Modelling.
Abstract: This paper examines the causal impact of e-money adoption on cash demand in Indonesia, an emerging economy where digital payments are expanding rapidly but cash remains widely used. Using a high-frequency provincial panel dataset, we address endogeneity in e-money adoption by employing a Bartik-style shift-share instrumental variable approach. We find clear evidence of substitution: a 1% increase in e-money transactions is associated with a 1.7% decline in cash demand. This effect is substantially stronger in more urbanized and digitally advanced provinces in the Java region, indicating persistent regional disparities. Evidence from cash denominations shows that substitution is concentrated among small-to medium-value banknotes typically used for everyday transactions, while coins remain largely unaffected. This study has important implications for monetary policy, particularly for managing the money supply and setting policy rates in an increasingly cashless economy, as well as for promoting targeted digital inclusion initiatives.
Local Budget Resilience in Times of COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from Indonesia. (with S. Sabrina, M. Husna, A. Cesarina, F.A. Afifi, and A. Halimatussadiah). 2022. Economies.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has put immense pressure on the fiscal situation. Central revenues have decelerated while expenditures had to be increased to facilitate economic recovery. Local governments faced even harder challenges as intergovernmental transfers were reduced and room for mobilizing alternative finances was limited. This paper employs qualitative and secondary data analysis on local budget and fiscal capacities at the subnational level in Indonesia to find insights into the implications and responses of the provincial government in a decentralized economy during the pandemic. Provinces with a high dependence on intergovernmental transfer are struggling to adopt a countercyclical mitigative fiscal policy. However, provinces with high local own-source revenue have suffered the most during the crisis as low economic activity reduced tax revenues and indirectly lead to lower fiscal space. As fiscal policy is critical to containing the pandemic and facilitating recovery, this paper proposes several strategies toward a more sustainable fiscal policy for rebuilding local government capacity in the medium-to-long term in the aftermath of the crisis.
Climate and Environmental Financing at Regional Level: Amplifying and Seizing the Opportunities. (with Syahda Sabrina, Meila Husna, Amalia Cesarina, Fachry Abdul, and Alin Halimatussadiah). 2021. LPEM FEB UI Working Papers.
Abstract: The establishment of national climate policy targets has forced the local government to set ambitious climate goals supporting the national government to achieve its proposed target. Besides low awareness of climate change and environmental risk impacts, the biggest challenge faced by the local governments to exert climate actions lies in the financing of the programs. This paper aims to analyze the current local government budget on climate and environmental activities and identify available potential financing sources to finance local government climate and environmental initiatives. We found that the local budget allocation for environmental spending increased from 1% in 2016 to 3% in 2020, yet it is still relatively low and insufficient for achieving the climate target. With a limited budget, local governments must find additional potential financing sources for financing their climate actions. Through case study analysis, insights from several regions that have gained harness of potential from various climate and environmental financing initiatives to overcome environmental issues in their areas and reach climate and environmental goals were attained. To address local budget shortages problem for climate and environmental activities, several strategies for the local government are proposed: (1) optimizing and improving the quality of spending from intergovernmental fiscal transfer; (2) adopting Climate Budget Tagging (CBT); (3) increasing local-own source revenue from natural resource and environmental based activities; (4) valuing regencies and/or cities with high ecological value with more fiscal support through TAPE and TAKE schemes; (5) optimizing the role of SOEs and private sectors through CSR and PPP; (6) optimizing multilateral financing; and (7) utilizing other financings from the central government such as through environmental fund management agency (BPDLH), disaster pooling fund, ICCTF, and SDGs Indonesia One.
Government Initiatives To Unlock Private Participation in Infrastructure: Lessons From Indonesia's Public-Private Partnership in The Water Sector. (with Febrio Kacaribu, Yohanna M.L. Gultom, and Syahda Sabrina). 2022. ADBI – Unlocking Private Investment in Sustainable Infrastructure in Asia (pp. 239-261). Taylor and Francis Ltd.
Penanganan Covid-19 dan Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PCPEN). 2022. Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Multiple Channel Financing Business Model. 2022. Bank Indonesia.
Peer Review and Capacity Building on APEC Infrastructure Development and Investment: Indonesia. 2019. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).
Tapera program: Addressing Housing Backlog with the "Dead Price" Policy? (with Yusuf Sofiyandi Simbolon, Yusuf Reza Kurniawan, and Firli W. Wahyuputri). 2024. LPEM UI Special Report.
Rupiah Depreciation: Is It Time to Panic? (with Zehan Pricillia and Jahen F. Rezki). 2024. LPEM UI Special Report.
'Student Loans' as a Financing Alternative for Increasing Access to Higher Education. (with Andhika P. Pratama and Jahen F. Rezki). 2024. LPEM UI Special Report.
Mineral Downstream Policy in Indonesia. (with Jahen F. Rezki and R.N. Siregar). 2023. LPEM FEB UI White Paper: Dari LPEM Bagi Indonesia: Agenda Ekonomi dan Masyarakat 2024-2029.
Mining Ban Exports and Its Implication (with Jahen F. Rezki and Faradina A. Maizar). 2023. LPEM UI Special Report.
Who Benefits from Digital Finance? Gender, Informality, and Religion in Indonesia (with J. de Haan & A. Minasyan).
Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: Evidence from ASEAN and the EU. (Supervisor: Prof. Tim Eisert)
Determinant the Sucess of Currency Redenomination Policy: Learning from Other Countries' Experiences for Indonesia. (Supervisor: Prof. Rina Indiastuti)