Research

Opportunity as Waste? Market-Based Solution to Agricultural Fires (Job Market Paper)

October 2025, Working Paper | [PDF]  

Weiss Fund/ NEUDC Development Economics Distinguished Paper Award, Asia Development Bank (ADB) - International Economic Association (IEA) Innovative Research Award 

Abstract: Crop residue burning significantly contributes to air pollution in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Instead of burning, farmers can sell their crop residues in the biogas market—an underexplored avenue that could reduce crop residue burning while generating income. However, farmers need compression technology to manage and sell their residues, which most smallholder farmers cannot afford. Therefore, this study tests a novel market-based alternative to crop residue burning by connecting smallholder farmers to the biogas market for their crop residues. I involve 1,024 farmers in a field experiment with two arms: a control arm and a treatment arm. Using high-resolution satellite imagery, I find that the intervention reduces crop residue burning by 32%. The effects are concentrated among farmers who faced high financial constraints, but not among those who faced information constraints at baseline. Crop residue burning also decreases among neighbors, indicating that green technology generates significant spillover effects within villages. The results indicate that the intervention is a highly cost-effective policy for mitigating negative externalities in agriculture. The benefits, measured in terms of CO2 emissions averted, are approximately 54 times greater than the program cost. 

Market Incentives for Environmental Protection: Evidence from Biogas Plants in Thailand

October 2025, Working Paper | [PDF]  

Abstract: Agricultural burning is a significant contributor to air pollution and health costs in low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines whether creating markets for agricultural residues reduces farmers' burning behavior by exploiting the staggered timing of biogas plant openings across Thailand from 2001 to 2023. Biogas plants buy crop residues from farmers as feedstock for the production of renewable energy, providing an economic alternative to open burning. Using agricultural fires from MODIS satellite imagery, I compare agricultural fires near operational plants with those near plants not yet operational within a 5-km radius. I find that plant openings reduce agricultural fires by 8.5% with effects concentrated during the burning season. These reductions result in substantial air quality improvements that extend well beyond the immediate vicinity of biogas plants. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 2.5% in local areas, but the effects are amplified in nearby urban centers, reaching 6.5% reductions. I find that plants offering high residue prices or those with high installed capacity reduce fires, suggesting that market mechanisms drive the estimated effects. Alternative explanations are ruled out, including enhanced fire enforcement, labor reallocation, and regulatory changes. These findings demonstrate that rural industrial policy that promotes renewable energy can mitigate urban air quality challenges in developing economies.

Mining Policy Reform and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Myanmar

Journal of Development Economics (September 2025)  vol. 179, p. 103608 ,  [PDF]

Special Mention by Conflict Research Society (CRS)

Abstract:  This paper inverts the standard resource-conflict paradigm by examining how resource contraction, rather than expansion, affects civil violence. Exploiting a 2016 moratorium in Myanmar that halted new mining licenses, I implement a difference-in-differences strategy using a novel spatially disaggregated database linking mining activity with geo-coded conflict events from 2011–2020. The contraction led to a 69% reduction in conflict incidents—particularly violent and fatal events—in previously licensed townships. The effects were stronger in ethnic homelands, poorer areas, and remote regions. Strikingly, the analysis uncovers positive spatial spillovers: conflict also declined in neighboring non-mining areas, suggesting that reduced resource extraction diffuses peace rather than displacing violence. Evidence supports three mechanisms: (1) lower mineral rents constrained armed group financing; (2) labor reallocation to productive sectors increased the opportunity cost of violence; and (3) reduced elite rents mitigated local inequality, dampening grievance-based mobilization.