Research

Opportunity as Waste? Market-Based Solution to Agricultural Fires (Job Market Paper)

October 2025, Working Paper (Under Review) | [PDF]  

Weiss Fund/ NEUDC Development Economics Distinguished Paper Award, Asia Development Bank (ADB) - International Economic Association (IEA) Innovative Research Award, EAERE Award for Best Doctoral Dissertations in Environmental and Resource Economics 

Abstract: Crop residue burning is a major source of air pollution in low- and middle-income countries. Instead of burning, farmers can sell their crop residues as biomass fuel, potentially reducing burning while generating income. However, accessing this market requires compression services. I test a market-based alternative to crop residue burning through a cluster-randomized field experiment with 1,024 rice farmers in Thailand. The intervention subsidizes compression services and connects farmers with service providers and a biomass buyer. Using high-resolution satellite imagery, I find that the intervention reduces crop residue burning by 36%. Burning also decreases among untreated neighboring farmers, with larger spillovers where the intervention generates greater local demand for compression. The findings highlight how frictions in complementary-service markets can limit market participation and sustain environmentally harmful behavior.

Market Incentives for Environmental Protection: Evidence from Biogas Plants in Thailand

October 2025, Working Paper | [PDF]  

Abstract: Agricultural burning is a significant contributor to air pollution and health costs in low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines whether creating markets for agricultural residues reduces farmers' burning behavior by exploiting the staggered timing of biogas plant openings across Thailand from 2001 to 2023. Biogas plants buy crop residues from farmers as feedstock for the production of renewable energy, providing an economic alternative to open burning. Using agricultural fires from MODIS satellite imagery, I compare agricultural fires near operational plants with those near plants not yet operational within a 5-km radius. I find that plant openings reduce agricultural fires by 8.5% with effects concentrated during the burning season. These reductions result in substantial air quality improvements that extend well beyond the immediate vicinity of biogas plants. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 2.5% in local areas, but the effects are amplified in nearby urban centers, reaching 6.5% reductions. I find that plants offering high residue prices or those with high installed capacity reduce fires, suggesting that market mechanisms drive the estimated effects. Alternative explanations are ruled out, including enhanced fire enforcement, labor reallocation, and regulatory changes. These findings demonstrate that rural industrial policy that promotes renewable energy can mitigate urban air quality challenges in developing economies.

Can Payments for Ecosystem Services Build Climate Resilience? Evidence from Vietnam 

with Ben Groom and Ben Balmford 

September 2026, Working Paper | [PDF]  

Abstract: This paper examines whether environmental payment programs can strengthen the resilience of conservation outcomes to climate shocks. Using evidence from Vietnam, we find that these programs help protect forests during periods of climate stress, highlighting the potential of environmental payments to enhance climate resilience. 

Mining Policy Reform and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Myanmar

Journal of Development Economics (September 2025)  vol. 179, p. 103608 ,  [PDF]

Special Mention by Conflict Research Society (CRS)

Media Coverage: VoxDev

Abstract:  This paper inverts the standard resource-conflict paradigm by examining how resource contraction, rather than expansion, affects civil violence. Exploiting a 2016 moratorium in Myanmar that halted new mining licenses, I implement a difference-in-differences strategy using a novel spatially disaggregated database linking mining activity with geo-coded conflict events from 2011–2020. The contraction led to a 69% reduction in conflict incidents—particularly violent and fatal events—in previously licensed townships. The effects were stronger in ethnic homelands, poorer areas, and remote regions. Strikingly, the analysis uncovers positive spatial spillovers: conflict also declined in neighboring non-mining areas, suggesting that reduced resource extraction diffuses peace rather than displacing violence. Evidence supports three mechanisms: (1) lower mineral rents constrained armed group financing; (2) labor reallocation to productive sectors increased the opportunity cost of violence; and (3) reduced elite rents mitigated local inequality, dampening grievance-based mobilization.