State Bank of Pakistan
Does the source of the oil price shock matter for inflation in Pakistan: Implications for monetary policy, with Zulfiqar Hyder.
Abstract: Using local projections method on sample period 2002-2021, this paper analyzes the response of inflation in Pakistan to global oil price shocks, as identified in Kilian (2009). We find significant differences in the impact of oil prices driven by supply and demand factors on administered fuel prices, and other inflation measures. Oil demand shocks in Pakistan are more inflationary than oil supply shocks due to the presence of the administered domestic petroleum price mechanism. Evidence suggests that policy-makers were able to correctly identify the
nature of the oil shock on most occasions, and adjust the administered fuel prices accordingly. Our results have important implications for monetary policy in Pakistan, as we find that purging of oil supply and demand shock matters for monetary policy formulation in case of a transitory supply shock.
How should SBP respond to changes in oil prices in Pakistan?
Abstract: This article analyses the impact of global oil price increases on inflation in Pakistan and provides recommendations for how an inflation-targeting SBP could respond to such shocks.
Fiscal and monetary policy for when covid-19 infections spike
Abstract: This first response gives a detailed breakdown of the fiscal and monetary measures needed to deal with the adverse economic implications of COVID-19.
Bearing the cost of global politics: The impact of FATF grey-listing on Pakistan's economy
Abstract: This working paper aims to investigate the economic implications of Pakistan’s placement on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) grey list. Following the approach set forth by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), the synthetic control method is used to analyze how Pakistan’s economy would have evolved in the absence of FATF interventions between 2008-2019.
(Media Coverage: Bloomberg, Associated Press News, Nikkei Asia, Asia Times, Al Jazeera, Express Tribune, and Business Recorder)
International Growth Centre, Lahore University of Management Sciences
Led a team of analysts to conduct field surveys aimed at understanding the scope of cascading inefficiencies in the current labor market structure.
Used STATA to examine the LFS, and estimate the impact of implementing minimum wage laws on economic output.
Produced findings and recommendations for the Punjab government that proved useful in reviewing labor and economic growth policies.