Research
Journal Articles:
Impacts of COVID-19-Era Economic Policies on Consumer Debt in the United Kingdom (with Breno Braga, Signe-Mary McKernan, Mark Hayward, Elizabeth Millward, Christopher Trepel). 2024. Journal of Economics and Business, Special Issue on Inequality in Consumer Credit and Payments.
Abstract: We examine the effects of the Universal Credit expansion and mortgage forbearance on the financial well-being of United Kingdom (UK) residents during the pandemic. Using anonymized individual-level consumer financial data on 2 million UK consumers, each with one or more defaulted accounts accrued before the pandemic, we found that average nonmortgage debt increased by 17% from October 2019 (£5497) to December 2021 (£6456). Using a difference-in-difference approach, we found mixed policy impacts on the debt people carried. Although the expansion of Universal Credit was intended to help financially vulnerable families, consumers who were more likely to benefit from the Universal Credit expansion took on 1% more total nonmortgage debt after the policy expansion. By contrast, during the period of mortgage forbearance, mortgage holders accumulated 1% less total nonmortgage debt compared to nonmortgage holders. These results suggest that policies implemented in the UK to protect financially vulnerable families were insufficient to prevent beneficiaries from accumulating additional debt during the pandemic.
Do State-Sponsored Retirement Plans Boost Retirement Saving? (with John Chalmers, Olivia S. Mitchell, and Jonathan Reuter). 2022. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings.
Abstract: Oregon recently launched an automatic-enrollment retirement savings program for private sector workers lacking access to other workplace retirement plans. We analyze participation choices, account balances, and inflow/outflow data using administrative records between August 2018 and April 2020. Within the small to mid-sized firms served by OregonSaves, estimated average after-tax earnings are low ($2,365 per month) and turnover rates are high (38.2 percent per year). Younger employees and employees in larger firms are less likely to opt out, but participation rates fall over time. Overall, we conclude that OregonSaves has meaningfully increased employee savings by reducing search costs.
Working Papers:
Using Machine Learning to Estimate Racially Disaggregated Wealth Data at the Local Level (with Aaron R. Williams and Breno Braga).
Abstract: Understanding wealth is central for uncovering the barriers to wealth-building and designing policies that unlock opportunities for everyone. However, household wealth data at the local level are generally not widely available, especially statistics disaggregated by race and ethnicity. In this research report, we document how we use machine learning to estimate net worth and emergency savings data at the local, city, state, and national levels. We also disaggregate our estimates by racial and ethnic groups at the city, state, and national levels. Using a random forest model, we predict whether households in the American Community Survey have $2,000 in emergency savings and their net worth. We then aggregate this household-level data to produce statistics at different geographic levels and by racial and ethnic groups.
Dissertation Fellowship: Social Security Administration and the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Robert R. Nathan Fellowship
Grants: Social Security Administration, AARP, Pew Charitable Trusts, Wharton Boettner Center/Pension Research Council
Conferences (including scheduled): World Risk and Insurance Economics Congress (2020), RAND Behavioral Finance Forum (2020), National Tax Association's Annual Conference on Taxation (2020), Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management (APPAM) Fall Research Conference (2020), National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Tech Economics Conference (TEC2020), ASSA/AEA Virtual Annual Meeting (2021), Western Economic Association International (WEAI) Virtual International Conference (2021), Midwest Finance Association Annual Conference (2021), Southwestern Finance Association Annual Conference (2021), Midwest Economics Association Annual Conference (2021), Eastern Economic Association Conference (2021), NBER Aging Program Meeting (2021), Western Economic Association International (WEAI) Virtual 96th Annual Conference (2021)
Abstract: I theoretically analyze and empirically identify the optimal default savings rate in automatic enrollment retirement saving plans. I derive a formula for the optimal default as a function of sufficient statistics that can be empirically identified. I estimate individual adherence to the default using exogenous increases in the default rate of OregonSaves, the first state-sponsored auto-enrollment plan in the U.S. I also use survey data to infer the degree of undersaving if workers actively switch to a non-default rate. Combining estimates from administrative and survey data with the optimal default formula, I find the optimal default is 7% of income.
Auto-Enrollment Retirement Plans for the People: Choices and Outcomes in OregonSaves (with John Chalmers, Olivia S. Mitchell, and Jonathan Reuter)
Conferences: Social Security Administration Retirement and Disability Research Consortium Annual Meeting (2019), NBER Conference on Incentives and Limitations of Employment Policies on Retirement Transitions (2019)
Media coverage: Brookings, MarketWatch, NBER Digest, ThinkAdvisor, 401kspecialist
Abstract: Oregon recently launched an automatic-enrollment retirement savings program for private sector workers lacking access to other workplace retirement plans. We analyze participation choices, account balances, and inflow/outflow data using administrative records between August 2018 and April 2020. Within the small to mid-sized firms served by OregonSaves, estimated average aftertax earnings are low ($2,365 per month) and turnover rates are high (38.2% per year). Younger employees and employees in larger firms are less likely to opt out, but participation rates fall over time. The most common reason given for opting out is “I can’t afford to save at this time,” but the second most common is “I have my own retirement plan.” As of April 2020, 67,731 accounts had positive account balances, holding$51.1 million in total assets. The average balance is $754, but with considerable dispersion; younger workers accumulating the fewest assets due to higher job turnover. Overall, we conclude that OregonSaves has meaningfully increased employee savings by reducing search costs. The 34.3% of workers with positive account balances in April 2020 is comparable to the marginal increase in participation at larger firms in the private sector. Employees opting out of OregonSaves are often doing so for rational reasons.