Abstract: Standardization ensures compatibility but potentially shapes innovation by locking in certain technologies. Unlike other countries, the Chinese government coordinates its firms to advance specific domestic technologies in international standard-setting organizations (SSOs). This paper studies the impact of this policy on global innovation in 5G. In the SSO for 5G, firms compete to have their patented technologies adopted as part of the 5G standards. Using a large language model, I build a new database linking SSO technical documents, 5G policy documents published by the Chinese government, and 5G patents. I show that the policy promotes Chinese technologies in areas where China lags behind foreign competitors. If adopted as standards, these lagging technologies become the basis for subsequent 5G innovation across countries, as measured by 5G patents in close textual alignment with the SSO documents describing these technologies. These follow-on patents account for two-fifths of total 5G patents filed worldwide after standardization. 

Abstract: Is supplier risk--and the incentives to mitigate it--a quantitatively important determinant of input sourcing? I build a trade model with cross-country differences in cost and risk, and analyze optimal sourcing decisions. Supplier risk is modeled as stochastic input prices correlated across countries, which firms mitigate through multi-sourcing. It addresses the prevalence of homogeneous goods imported to the United State from multiple countries with price variations despite similar quality. Calibrating the model to match U.S. import decisions suggests that: 1. U.S. firms are risk-averse; 2. estimated supplier shock covariances decline with distance, implying a trade-off between low-cost but poorly-diversified nearby sourcing versus costly but well-diversified remote sourcing. Risk diversification explains a third of the observed variation in U.S. import shares across countries for intermediate inputs. In a simulation of the 2018-2019 U.S. tariff increase on Chinese inputs, China's share of U.S. imports declines by 25% more than without the diversification motive, highlighting that divesification amplifies the response to trade policy.

Extended Abstract: In this paper, we study the effect of Chinese state-sponsored 5G standards on international trade in 5G-enabled products. Specifically, we examine how competition in the standard-setting process between Chinese firms with state-sponsored technologies and non-Chinese firms leads to “winners” who leverage their success to expand exports and gain market share. We document the causal impact of Chinese state-sponsored standards on China’s export levels and shares in 5G products.

Our study focuses on the 3rd Generation Project Partnership (3GPP), the organization responsible for setting 5G standards. Within the 3GPP, firms propose technical specifications, often necessitating the use of their patented technologies, and negotiate their adoption as industry standards. Unlike other countries, the Chinese government coordinates its firms to advance specific domestic technologies in the 3GPP. The foundation of our empirical analysis is a database we build based on: (1) 3GPP technical documents detailing technologies adopted as standards and the contributing firms; (2) 5G policy documents detailing specific technologies promoted by the Chinese government; (3) 5G patents; and (4) detailed global sales data on cellphone models. We will link the first three datasets through textual similarities using an LLM and construct a firm-level dataset. This dataset will then be linked to the cellphone data. To identify the causal impact of standards adoption, we exploit quasi-random locations of 3GPP meetings to instrument the adoption of technologies as standards, promoted by firms based in different regions.

Kim (2025) finds that China’s intervention in the 3GPP leads to a biased selection of 5G technologies, questioning the ability of an international standard-setting organization (SSO) to produce standards aligned with the multilateral principles of the WTO (e.g., Grossman and Sykes, 2024). Our study extends this line of inquiry.

Abstract: This paper studies how spatial diversification of foreign suppliers and buyers mitigates the impact of extreme weather shocks abroad on domestic firms and their local economies. Using a new Canadian dataset connecting plant-level information on merchandise trade flows by partner region with production data for all plants in private-sector firms, we characterize the spatial distribution of export, import, and production activities and the geography of trade diversification across Canadian firms and regions. By linking this database with data on the paths and severity of hurricanes that pass over the U.S., we investigate how diversification of trade across U.S. states affects the economic resilience of Canadian firms and their local economies following hurricane shocks. We plan to develop a spatial general equilibrium model to quantify the costs and benefits of trade diversification and the scope for place-based policies to increase welfare. 

Abstract: This paper distinguishes between different models of wage setting for thinking about how a persistent increase in import competition affects firm-level wages. Do firm owners take advantage of exit by other firms in the relevant labor market to exercise stronger labor market power, exacerbating wage markdowns as in modern oligopsony models, or do these owners partially absorb lost revenue in the form of lower profit rates and/or wages paid to themselves to smooth wages for workers as one might expect from a model of implicit contracts (for example)? Using linked administrative individual-firm data for Canada during the period 2001-2011, we first confirm that increased exposure to imports from China led to increased exit and lower revenue for more affected Canadian manufacturing firms during this period. We then use accounting identities to decompose lower revenue into changes in net income, payroll, and non-payroll expenses. All components decline in levels, but labor's share of revenue increases, net income's share falls, and the share of non-payroll expenses is constant. We show that this is inconsistent with constant/growing markdowns predicted by basic models of monopsony/oligopsony and more consistent with models that treat labor as a quasi-fixed cost. Turning to the individual level, stayer employee wages do not respond to higher levels of import competition, but owner income at these firms declines dramatically, consistent with owners' absorbing goods market shocks themselves while insulating stayers.