Work In Progress

The Long-Run Effects of Military Procurement on Regional Economies: Multi-Century Evidence from the US Civil War

This paper focuses on government-driven economic expansion resulting from industrial mobilization in the U.S. North during the Civil War to investigate whether short-term regional government intervention improves the long-term outcomes of local economies and individuals. I compare counties where government procurement and manufacturing facilities were located to other counties with similar 1860 levels of population, infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. I find that the presence of these facilities had a large and persistent impact on the development of these counties, resulting in higher population growth, manufacturing employment and, average manufacturing wages. Additionally, individuals in treated counties exhibit greater upward mobility than those in the counterfactual group. Men born between 1850 and 1860 who lived in treated counties during the Civil War achieved significant improvements in their occupational scores as adults compared to their household backgrounds. The most substantial gains were seen among those from households with low occupational scores in 1860. Post-Civil War, treated counties also exhibit a significant uptick in innovation. Moreover, I present a simple conceptual framework to rationalize the findings and argue that agglomeration related technological spillovers are the core mechanism driving long-run path dependence. 

Preliminary Draft 

Development Effects of Historical State: Evidence from Colonial State in India

Abstract

This study examines how historical institutions influence long-run development by leveraging direct-indirect rule in Colonial India. I employ an instrumental variable strategy to compare regions under direct British rule to those governed by princely states. Even decades after decolonization, areas or villages that were once part of princely states have better economic outcomes compared to areas that were under direct British colonial rule. The regions under princely states exhibit greater availability of local public goods and have more developed rural economies, characterized by higher agricultural productivity and non-agricultural employment.