After decades of integration, the global economy appears to be entering a new regime characterized by rising trade barriers, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and a deliberate restructuring of cross-border ties. This conference brings together leading scholars to analyze the long-run economic consequences of this shift toward deglobalization. We will explore how increased friction in international markets and the fragmentation of the global trading system will alter the trajectory of economic development and growth. The objective is to move beyond short-term adjustments and understand the structural shifts caused by reduced cross-country interactions.

8:55 – 9:00 · Opening Remarks

9:00 – 9:50 · Session 1

Industrial Policies, Global Imbalances and Technological Hegemony

Cesa-Bianchi, Ferrero, Fornaro, and Wolf

Discussant: Ahmad Lashkaripour, Indiana University Bloomington

10:05 – 10:55 · Session 2

Can Tariffs Spur Innovation?

Alp and Ates

Discussant: Mike Waugh, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

11:10 – 12:00 · Session 3

Tariffs for National Security: Why Breaking Free Trade

Benigno and Eyquem

Discussant: Mathilde Bombardini, University of California, Berkeley

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12:30 – 1:30 · Policy Panel

Laura Alfaro, Inter-American Development Bank

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, University of California, Berkeley

Ann Harrison, Berkeley Haas

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1:45 – 2:35 · Session 4

The Cost of Rivalry: Geopolitical Fragmentation and Trade during the Cold War

Meyer and Wesseler

Discussant: Matteo Maggiori, Stanford GSB

2:50 – 3:40 · Session 5

Middle Powers: Can They Mend a Rupturing Global Order?

Cui, Fernandez-Arias, Gourinchas, Hong, Li, Presbitero, Topalova, Zhang, and Zymek

Discussant: Ina Simonovska, University of California, Davis

3:55 – 4:45 · Session 6

Commodity Trade Fragmentation and Market Power

Maggi, Shin, and Sollaci

Discussant: Thibault Fally, University of California, Berkeley

5:00 – 5:50 · Session 7

Borrowing in the Shadow of China

Kondo, Sosa-Padilla, and Swaziek

Discussant: Arvind Krishnamurthy, Stanford GSB

6:30 · Dinner

Conference Organizers

• Juliane Begenau (Stanford GSB)

• Pete Klenow (Stanford Economics)

• Christopher Tonetti (Stanford GSB)

Contact Information

For inquiries and additional information, please contact the conference organizers at macropolicyperspectives@gmail.com. 

MPP Advisory Board