Embedded Files
exceed the percentage of burials for the first time in 2015. Even with an expected 27% increase from 2.5 million deaths in 2011 to 3.2 million in 2030, the shifting preference for cremation will result in the number of burials declining from 1.31 million in 2011 to 1.20 million in 2015, then to 1.06 million in 2020 and down to 745,000 in 2030. The number of cremations is expected to rise from 1.07 (2011) to 1.26 million (2015), then to 1.54 million (2020) and 2.27 million (2030). In 2011, 17 states had cremation rates above 50%; by 2020, 39 states are projected to have more cremations than burials; by 2030, 47 states are predicted to have more than 50% of deaths as cremations. 9/11/14 © 2014 National Funeral Directors Association 2. 51. TOTAL 51.9% 48.9% 47.3% 45.8% 38.1% 23.2% 42.2% 45.1% 46.7% 48.2% 55.8% 70.6% Burials Cremations Methodology The above statistical projections were prepared in September 2014 for NFDA by the University of Wisconsin-Madison Applied Population Laboratory Department of Community and Environmental Sociology. State-level deaths by method of disposition data were collected from state vital statistics departments or similar state regulatory agencies for the years 2002-2012. Simple linear regression was used as the projection method for calculating the percentages of burials and cremations. The small percentage (6.0%) of “other” methods of disposition (such as donations, entombment, removal from state, etc.) are not included in this report. To determine disposition rates for states without data and complete the base series for states with partial or missing data available, choropleth maps were prepared for several years and reviewed. Analysis indicates that spatial associations were fairly strong among neighboring states. Four states required the construction of complete base sets (Maine, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia) and another three required partial imputation of some missing values (Illinois, Nevada, West Virginia). NFDA Projected Deaths by Method of Disposition, by State, 2011 - 2030, Percent of Total * Percentages for 2011 are estimated. ** States with fewer than five years’ data in base period 2002-2011, indicating greater uncertainty in the projections. Once the base percentages were completed, the annualized rates of change for each state’s share of burials and cremations were calculated and carried forward to the desired projection dates of 2013, 2014, 2015, 2020 and 2030. An upper bound for cremations and lower bound for burials was established for 2030, using the mean and standard deviation for all states. To establish projected state deaths, and hence, the future number of burials and cremations, agesex-specific death rates (ASDRs) were calculated using the Census Bureau’s national projections and mortality data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. As with any statistical projections, there may be variation – increases or decreases – in deaths from year to year in an individual state or even at the national level. For complete methodology and references summaries, contact NFDA at 800-228-6332. 5. © 2014 National Funeral Directors Association 9/11/14 14.9% 20.6% 32.3% 34.7% 48.3% 48.7% 48.8% 58.6% 62.2% 65.0% 71.1% 72.0% 74.4% 78.6% 79.6% 79.7% 80.0% 84.6% 89.9% 90.8% 99.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Italy Cuba France Austria Russia Belgium China The Netherlands Canada* Australia^ South Korea New Zealand United Kingdom Sweden Czech Republic Singapore Thailand Switzerland Hong Kong Taiwan Japan International Cremation Statistics (Selected countries, 2011 or latest year available) Source: The Cremation Society of Great Britain, 2012 Report. * Excludes Quebec. ^ Estimate. Global Cremation Rates In other parts of the world, cremation has long been more readily accepted than in the United States. It is the prevailing practice where the custom is ancient, as in India. In Japan, the practice is nearly universal, with the current rate at 99.9%. Rates are approaching 50% in China and Russia, 80% in Singapore and 90% in Hong Kong. The UK rate is more than 74%, with Canadian and Australian rates over 60% and the Netherlands over 58%, according to the Cremation Society of Great Britain’s International Cremation Statistics 2012 report. The Cremation Society’s 2011 report noted that in many Scandinavian cities, as in other concentrated urban areas around the globe, the cremation rate is well over 70%, reflective of population density and decreasing burial space. Consumer Attitudes The most recent consumer survey conducted by the Funeral and Memorial Information Council (FAMIC, 2012) found that the likelihood of choosing cremation for a loved one has increased steadily over time since the first survey, conducted in 1990. In 2010, 28% of respondents indicated they would definitely choose cremation for a loved one. Among geographic regions, 43% of respondents in the Midwest would have a ceremony with the body present prior to cremation – a significantly higher number than in the West (17%). Accordingly, more respondents in the West would have a ceremony without the body present (49%) than in the Midwest (29%). Demographically, 51% of African Americans are not at all likely to choose cremation; Hispanic Americans are significantly more likely than the general population age 20-39 to indicate that they
Report abuse