Nuclear energy risks: scientific modeling from the adequacy-for-purpose perspective
Elena Castellani (University of Florence), Roukaya Dekhil (LMU Munich), Emilia Margoni (University of Geneva)
Nowadays, the adequacy-for-purpose view is commonly underlined as a fruitful method to build and evaluate scientific models. Here we explore whether such a philosophical perspective can be beneficial for assessing modeling risk in the sector of nuclear energy. By exploring the various dimensions that are involved in the case study, we argue that the standard approach should be complemented with a dynamical-systemic assessment of the various, at times antagonistic, purposes at play.
Does the Ethical Case for Nuclear Energy Rely on Deregulation?
Simon Friederich (Groningen University)
Efforts to launch large-scale nuclear new-build programs face significant regulatory, societal, and commercial challenges. The ethical argument in favor of these initiatives contends that overcoming these challenges is a moral imperative, as securing an affordable, geographically flexible source of clean energy would greatly facilitate deep decarbonization. In this paper, I examine the ethical arguments for deploying nuclear energy and suggest that they may rest on the assumption that responsible deregulation can make rapid nuclear energy expansion a realistic possibility. I conclude by considering whether there are concrete measures that might help to actually achieve such deregulation without significant sacrifices to safety.
The risk of precautionary paralysis: Modeling climate collapse and nuclear disasters
Mathias Frisch (Leibniz University Hannover)
Models of future climate change including the possibility of climate collapse are beset by deep uncertainties. In this situation, urgent mitigation measures, including a greater reliance on nuclear energy, might be justified by appealing to a broadly precautionary reasoning. On the other hand, precautionary reasoning might also be used to argue against an expanded use of nuclear energy. In this talk I use the case of climate collapse and the role of nuclear power as mitigation strategy to investigate the problem of paralysis for precautionary reasoning and possible strategies for avoiding this problem.
Nuclear energy in long-term scenarios: models, assumptions, and policy implications
Sara Giarola (Polytechnic University of Milan), Francesco Nappo (Polytechnic University of Milan)
We develop an auditing approach to critically review nuclear energy in energy transition scenarios, particularly examining the interplay between nuclear energy and other decarbonization technologies, such as renewables, in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and Energy System Models (ESMs) of climate change. The auditing framework provides a structured method for assessing scenarios and analyzing their credibility and policy relevance. Utilizing scenarios from the IPCC AR6 and other public and private institutions, we identify key areas of methodological research for future interactions of IAMs and ESMs with policy-making.
Modelling (in) the Anthropocene: trade-offs and values
Vincent Lam (University of Bern)
Climate change is increasingly understood as one aspect of a larger story involving disruptive human interferences in fundamental, life support planetary processes. In this talk, I consider to what extent this broader (Anthropocene) perspective affects the discussions related to (the management of) the value-laden dimensions of climate science and modelling. Particular attention will be given in this context to the multi-faceted nature and planetary scale of this Anthropocene perspective.
A multi-risk perspective on natural and technological disasters
Malvina Ongaro (Polytechnic University of Milan)
The risk of nuclear accidents is one of the main fears related to the use of nuclear energy. In this work, I present the epistemological and ethical dimensions of the notion of risk, and I focus on the relation between nuclear and natural risks. Nuclear disasters may be triggered by human action, but often - as in the case of Fukushima - they are part of chain events that involve both technological and natural components. To understand nuclear risk it is therefore important to adopt a multi-risk perspective that takes into account the interactions between different related risks, as this may be crucial to identify the elements on which nuclear risk depends.