Recession Probability Data

This is a real time update of the recession probability from "Do Credit Booms Predict U.S. Recessions?" using macroeconomic data up until September 2023.  

The first two panels indicate an average recession (credit boom) probability forecast of about 66% (2%) for March 2024. The third panel indicates the stage of the U.S. credit cycle proxied by a deviation measure of real aggregate loans per capita (LTD). As of September 2023, LTD is -1.28.

Note: I update these numbers monthly as new macro data becomes public.