Leveraging a large, novel set of property-level operating statements, we analyze the drivers and consequences of rising commercial property insurance costs. We document a significant, persistent increase in insurance costs across the U.S. over the last decade. We find that the increased pricing of local risk tracks the rising cost of reinsurance coverage; states with higher ex-ante exposure to reinsurance markets face steeper increases, even holding local risk fixed. Commercial insurance cost growth is more than double that of homeowners insurance in 95% of counties. Using a border county-pair difference-in-differences design, we show that this divergence arises from homeowner-market regulatory frictions spilling over into commercial pricing through cross-product subsidization. On average, 49% of the rise in insurance costs is passed through to rents, though this pass-through rate is declining over time. While the average impact on rents and profitability has been relatively small, the effect in high-risk areas is substantial. Finally, we show that larger owners and those with lower-risk portfolios secure lower insurance costs, particularly in high-risk areas. Consequently, property ownership in high-risk regions is increasingly being consolidated among larger entities. Our findings suggest that commercial insurance pricing reflects both localized and systematic risk exposure and is significantly influenced by owner portfolios.
Presentations: AFA, PhD Poster; AREUEA-ASSA Conference; SFA; Boca Finance and Real Estate Conference; FMA; UT Dallas Fall Finance Conference, PhD Poster; MRS; Deakin; UT San Antonio, Seminar; Baruch-JFQA Climate Finance Conference, PhD Poster (won Best Poster Award)