Publications
Spatial Nexus: Natural Resources and Economic Growth, with Thanasis Stengos and Yiguo Sun, Empirical Economics, 69, (2025): 1117- 1152.
The “Resource Curse” phenomenon has been a central theme in resource economic research over the past few decades, with numerous studies highlighting the paradox where countries rich in natural resources experience slower economic growth. This paper revisits this critical issue by examining the relationship between natural resource rents and economic growth, specifically in non-OECD countries. Given that many of these nations are both resource-rich and characterized by relatively low economic growth, this study employs a spatial Durbin model toprovide a nuanced understanding of the impact of resource rents on economic performance. Our findings reinforce the notion of the “Resource Curse,” revealing that, in most cases, resource rents exert a detrimental effect on economic growth, thereby exacerbating the economic challenges faced by these countries. When the “Resource Curse” emerges, not only the home country but also neighboring countries are potential to be harmed. The results underscore the importance of effective resource management and policy interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of resource dependence on long-term economic development.
Energy Consumption and Economic Performance in a Spatial Context: Spillover Effects Across Borders, with Thanasis Stengos and Yiguo Sun, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, (2026).
Extensive research has delved into the interplay between energy consumption and economic development. Building upon this rich literature, this paper revisits this nexus from aspatial perspective that emphasizes cross-country interdependencies and spatial dynamics. We utilize a dataset of 103 countries spanning 1990–2015, treating this period as a histor-ically coherent benchmark preceding the major shift in the international climate-policy environment associated with the Paris Agreement and the United Nations 2030 Agenda. Our empirical findings reveal a robust and positive relationship between renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy consumption, and GDP per capita within a country, consistent with findings in the existing literature. Furthermore, employing a unified spatial model, our study uncovers cross-country spillover effects through geographical proximity, energy consumption similarity, and economic linkages. Notably, the results reveal negative spatial spillover associations between energy consumption in neighboring countries and the home country’s GDP per capita. Potential explanations for these negative spillover effects include increased emissions from neighboring countries, which may impose health and economic burdens on the home country, and the possibility that Renewable Energy Technology Innovation (RETI) promotes local green industrial advancement while limiting similar progress in neighboring countries.
Working Papers:
National Energy Choices and Regional Air Pollution: Spatial Evidence from Provincial-Level Pollution Data. 2025. (joint with N. Fatouros and M. Kasioumi) Submitted and Under Review
This study examines the relationship between national energy consumption patterns and regional air pollutant emissions, accounting for spatial spillover effects. We construct a panel of 2,236 first-level administrative regions across 122 countries from 2000 to 2015, combining EDGAR emissions data for BC, CO2, PM2.5 and SO2 with national energy and macroeconomic indicators. Employing a spatial Durbin panel model with three alternative spatial weight matrices, we estimate direct, indirect, and total effects. The results indicate that higher energy consumption per capita is consistently associated with increased emissions of all four pollutants, whereas a higher renewable energy share is associated with lower CO2, SO2, and BC emissions but higher PM2.5 emissions. While direct effects remain relatively robust across spatial specifications, indirect and total effects exhibit greater sensitivity to spatial connectivity, with SO2 showing the most consistent results. These findings underscore the importance of spatial interdependencies in assessing the environmental implications of national energy consumption patterns.
Spatial Nexus: Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions. 2024. (Joint with Thanasis Stengos and Yiguo Sun ) Submitted and Under Review
Extensive research has explored the relationship between energy consumption, GDP per capita, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita. Building upon this substantial body of literature, our study employs a dataset of 97 globally selected countries spanning from 1995 to 2015, using a spatial Durbin model to revisit this nexus from a spatial perspective, emphasizing interdependencies of the economies and spatial dynamics of CO2 emissions. First, our results uncover the spillover effects of CO2 emissions among geographical, institutional, and economic neighbors. Second, the direct effects of renewable energy consumption suggest that increasing renewable energy consumption in a country reduces its CO2 emissions. The indirect effects of renewable energy consumption indicate that increasing renewable energy consumption in one country also reduces CO2 emissions in neighboring countries. Third, most of the direct effects of non-renewable energy consumption suggest that increasing non-renewable energy consumption in a country increases its CO2 emissions. Similarly, the indirect effects show that increasing non-renewable energy consumption in one country leads to an increase in CO2 emissions in neighboring countries. Thus, international environmental policies are critical in addressing global climate change and achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
From QE to QT, what is the impact on the housing market in developed countries? 2023. (United Nations Working Paper Joint with Ingo Pitterle)
The global housing market in developed countries has witnessed a significant surge since the global financial crisis (GFC). This rapid acceleration in house prices and substantial investments has led to a substantial decline in housing affordability, raising concerns among the public about the potential existence of a housing bubble and the likelihood of a sharp price correction. Given the recent implementation of substantial monetary tightening measures, this paper utilizes the Local Projection methodology to explore the impact of interest rate hikes on the housing markets in selected developed countries. The empirical findings suggest that housing investment experienced a moderate immediate decline following the tightening measures. However, the anticipated price correction is notably less severe than initially expected. Consequently, this paper offers insights into the resilience of the housing market at the present juncture, analyzing how this current situation differs from past episodes. Moreover, it delves into the lessons learned from the relationship between high-interest rates and a resilient housing market in selected developed countries.
Policy Publications:
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 (United Nations Publication)
Work in Progress:
AI as a Skill-Biased Productivity Booster: A Threshold Perspective. 2026