Works

Journal Articles

1. Shiogama, H., M. Hayashi, N. Hirota, T. Ogura,  H. Kim, and M. Watanabe 2025: Combined emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation changes. Nature Communications, 16, 5293, doi:10.1038/s41467-025-60385-1. [Open Access]

2. Hayashi, M., and F.-F. Jin, 2025: Tropical intraseasonal variability as a leading moisture dynamic mode of the warm-pool background state. Journal of Climate, 38, 235-262, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0141.1. [Open Access]

3. Hayashi, M., H. Shiogama, N. N. Ishizaki, and Y. Wakazuki, 2024: Scenario dependence of future precipitation changes across Japan in CMIP6. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 20, 207-216, doi:10.2151/sola.2024-028. [Open Access]

4. Shiogama, H., M. Hayashi, N. Hirota, and T. Ogura, 2024: Emergent constraints on future changes in several climate variables and extreme indices from global to regional scales. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 20, 122-129, doi:10.2151/sola.2024-017. [Open Access]

5. Shiogama, H., S. Fujimori, T. Hasegawa,  M. Hayashi, Y. Hirabayashi, T. Ogura, T. Iizumi, K. Takahashi, and T. Takemura, 2023: Important distinctiveness of SSP3–7.0 for use in impact assessments. Nature Climate Change, 13, 1276-1278, doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01883-2.

6. Shiogama, H., H. Tatebe, M. Hayashi, M. Abe, M. Arai, H. Koyama, Y. Imada, Y. Kosaka, T. Ogura, and M. Watanabe, 2023: MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses. Earth System Dynamics, 14, 1107-1124, doi:10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023. [Open Access]

7. Kim, J.-H., S.-J. Kim, J.-H. Kim, M. Hayashi, and M.-K. Kim, 2022: East Asian heatwaves driven by Arctic-Siberian warming. Sci. Rep., 12, 18025, doi:10.1038/s41598-022-22628-9. [Open Access]

8. Hayashi, M., H. Shiogama, and T. Ogura, 2022: The contribution of climate change to increasing extreme ocean warming around Japan. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(19), e2022GL100785. doi:10.1029/2022GL100785. Shareable link  (Updated results: visit the #ExtremeOceanWarming tab)

9. Ren, H.-L., W. Zhang, T. Lian, R. Xie, and M. Hayashi, 2022: Editorial: ENSO nonlinearity and complexity: features, mechanisms, impacts and prediction. Front. Earth Sci., 10, 967362. doi: 10.3389/feart.2022.967362 [Open Access] ReadCube link

10. Hayashi, M., and H. Shiogama, 2022:  Assessment of CMIP6-based future climate projections selected for impact studies in Japan. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 18, 96-103. doi:10.2151/sola.2022-016 [Open Access]

11. Hayashi, M., 2022: Tropical Widening. TENKI, 69(1), 29-31. PDF link

12. Hayashi, M., H. Shiogama, S. Emori, T. Ogura, and N. Hirota, 2021: The northwestern Pacific warming record in August 2020 occurred under anthropogenic forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL090956. doi:10.1029/2020GL090956. [Open Access]

13. Hayashi, M., F.-F. Jin, and M. F. Stuecker, 2020: Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern. Nature Communications, 11, 4230, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17983-y. ReadCube link

14. Jin, F.-F., H.-C. Chen, S. Zhao, M. Hayashi, C. Karamperidou, M. F. Stuecker, R. Xie and L. Geng, 2020: Chapter 6: Simple ENSO Models. In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (W. Cai, A. Santoso and M.-J. McPhaden, eds.), American Geophysical Union, pp 528, ISBN:978-1-119-54812-6. doi:10.1002/9781119548164.ch6

15. Hayashi, M., 2020: Study on Coupling between Westerly Wind Events and ENSO. TENKI, 67, 5-25, doi:10.24761/tenki.67.1_5. [Open Access] PDF link

16. Stuecker, M. F., A. Timmermann, F.-F. Jin, C. Proistosescu, S. M. Kang, D. Kim, K.-S. Yun, E.-S. Chung, J.-E. Chu, C. M. Bitz, K. C. Armour, and M. Hayashi, 2020: Strong Remote Control of Future Equatorial Warming by Off-equatorial Forcing. Nature Climate Change, 10, 124-129, doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0667-6.

17. Michiya Hayashi, and Masahiro Watanabe, 2019: Importance of Background Seasonality over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Response to Westerly Wind Events. Clim. Dyn., 52, 7309-7327, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3481-0. [Open Access]  e-Offprint

18. Timmermann, A., S.-I. An, J.-S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, W. Cai, A. Capotondi, K. Cobb, M. Lengaigne, M. J. McPhaden, M. F. Stuecker, K. Stein, A. T. Wittenberg, K.-S. Yun, T. Bayr, H.-C. Chen, Y. Chikamoto, B. Dewitte, D. Dommenget, P. Grothe, E. Guilyardi, Y.-G. Ham, M. Hayashi, S. Ineson, D. Kang, S. Kim, W.-M. Kim, J.-Y. Lee, T. Li, J.-J. Luo, S. McGregor, Y. Planton, S. Power, H. Rashid, H.-L. Ren, A. Santoso, K. Takahashi, A. Todd, G. Wang, G. Wang, R. Xie, W.-H. Yang, S.-W. Yeh, J. Yoon, E. Zeller, and X. Zhang, 2018: El Niño-Southern Oscillation Complexity. Nature, 559, 535-545, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6.  ReadCube link

19. Michiya Hayashi, and Fei-Fei Jin, 2017: Subsurface Nonlinear Dynamical Heating and ENSO Asymmetry. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 12427-12435, doi:10.1002/2017GL075771.  ReadCube link

20. Michiya Hayashi, and Hisanori Itoh, 2017: A New Mechanism of the Slow Eastward Propagation of Unstable Disturbances with Convection in the Tropics: Implications for the MJO. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 3749-3769, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-16-0300.1. [Open Access, 1st Most Read Article in JAS as of 2018/04/10]  PDF link

21. Michiya Hayashi, and Masahiro Watanabe, 2017: ENSO Complexity Induced by State Dependence of Westerly Wind Events. J. Climate, 30, 3401-3420, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0406.1. [Open Access]  PDF link

22. Michiya Hayashi, and Masahiro Watanabe, 2016: Asymmetry of Westerly and Easterly Wind Events: Observational Evidence. SOLA, 12, 42-45, doi:10.2151/sola.2016-009. [Open Access]  PDF link  Supplementary material

23. Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Hiroaki Tatebe, Michiya Hayashi, Masayoshi Ishii, and Masahide Kimoto, 2014: Contribution of Natural Decadal Variability to Global Warming Acceleration and Hiatus. Nature Clim. Change, 4, 893-897, doi:10.1038/nclimate2355.  ReadCube link

24. Michiya Hayashi, and Hisanori Itoh, 2012: The Importance of the Nontraditional Coriolis Terms in Large-Scale Motions in the Tropics Forced by Prescribed Cumulus Heating. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2699-2716,
    doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-0334.1. [Open Access]  PDF link

Ph.D. Dissertation

• Michiya Hayashi, 2016 (March): A Modeling Study on Coupling between Westerly Wind Events and ENSO. Ph.D. dissertation, the University of Tokyo, doi:10.15083/00073330. [available online at UTokyo Repository, see also three journal articles: Hayashi and Watanabe (2016, 2017, 2019) in my publication list above.]

Books

• Wakazuki, Y., Shiogama, H., Ishizaki, N. N., Hayashi, M. (2025). Climate Change Scenarios for Impacts and Adaptation Research, In Mimura, N., Takewaka, S. (eds) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Japan: Integrated Research toward Climate Resilient Society, Springer, Singapore. doi:10.1007/978-981-96-2436-2_2

• Ren, H.-L., Lian, T., Hayashi, M., Xie, R., Zhang, W., eds. (2022). ENSO Nonlinearity and Complexity: Features, Mechanisms, Impacts and Prediction. Lausanne: Frontiers Media SA. doi: 10.3389/978-2-88976-725-0

Others (yyyy-mm-dd)

• 林未知也, 塩竈秀夫, 石崎紀子, 2024: 地球温暖化だけでは決まらない日本の将来の雨量–大気汚染物質の排出シナリオが21世紀の降水量予測を左右する. 国環研View Deep (2024-07-25公開).

• 取材協力・毎日新聞 (2024-07-12): 24色のペン 青と赤のストライプが伝える危機＝大場あい（くらし科学環境部）

• 取材協力・客观日本 (2022-11-29): 日本国立环境研究所：日本近海增多的极端升温明显是受全球变暖的影响

• 取材協力・読売新聞 大阪地域発行版朝刊科学面 (2022-11-18): 海面の異常高温が急増、日本周辺で２倍以上起きやすく…温暖化が影響

• 取材協力・科学新聞 (2022-10-28): 日本近海で増える極端昇温　国立環境研　地球温暖化の影響が明らかに

• 取材協力・読売新聞 (2022-10-19): 海面の異常高温が急増、日本周辺で２倍以上起きやすく…温暖化が影響

• 取材協力・朝日新聞デジタル (2022-07-08): （１．５℃の約束）夏、感じてほしいけど　暑さ指数計にらみながら

• 取材協力・ニュース富山人 (NHK富山放送2021-09-15 18:10): SDGs×ジブンゴト 私たちの温暖化対策 ほか

• 取材協力・NHKニュース (2021-08-10; NHK総合放送2021-08-09 19:00): 地球温暖化の原因は人間の活動と初めて断定 国連IPCCが報告書 (記事検索リンク)

• 林未知也, 宇野史睦, 木下武也, 2021: 気象学会オンライン大会後の意見交換会の報告〜稀な機会を今後に活かすために〜. 天気, 68(6), 41-44.

• 監修協力・テレビ番組「未来王2030」の環境問題クイズを一部監修協力 (2021-02-23 22:15-23:15 NHK総合放送)

• 林未知也, 2021: 最新科学でわかる日本の気候変化と「2℃目標」の意義：日本の気候変動2020－大気と陸・海洋に関する観測・予測評価報告書－を読む. 国立環境研究所地球環境研究センターニュース, Vol. 31, No. 13 (通巻364号). (2021年3月号, 2021-02-18公開)

• 取材協力・東京新聞 TOKYO Web (2021-01-18): 1000年に１度の高い海面水温　15年に１度の頻度に　日本の台風リスク高まる

• 取材協力・東京新聞 朝刊二面 (2021-01-18): 1000年に1度のはずが15年に