Research

Publications

Price Points and Price Dynamics, with Volker Hahn (Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020)

This paper proposes a macroeconomic model with positive trend inflation that involves an important role for price points as well as sticky information. We argue that, in particular, a variant of our model that allows for a general distribution of price points is more successful in explaining several stylized facts of individual price setting than a benchmark model that is based on Calvo price-setting. More specifically, it makes empirically reasonable predictions with regard to the duration of price spells, the sizes of price increases and decreases, the shape of the hazard function, the fraction of price changes that are price increases, and the relationship between price changes and inflation. Moreover, our model implies plausible aggregate effects of monetary policy in contrast with a model with a prominent role for price points but no information rigidities.

Working papers

Presentations: CEBRA Annual Meeting 2023 in New York, Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Vienna), ECB Working Group on Forecasting, Vienna University of Technology (TU Vienna), Bank of Finland, 7th Annual Meeting of the ESCB Research Cluster on Monetary Economics, National Bank of Slovakia

This paper shows that the impact of inflation expectations on consumption depends on prevailing inflation. Beyond the quantitative-qualitative distinction in inflation expectations, differentiating among qualitative expectations of higher, constant, or positive inflation is key. Qualitative expectations have a greater impact on consumption than expected levels and changes in inflation, and the significance of specific qualitative expectations is contingent upon the prevailing inflation conditions. The effect of expecting qualitatively higher inflation on the willingness to consume is more pronounced during periods of inflation surges than in times of low and stable inflation, and is insignificant during periods of decline or deflation. Policy implications are discussed.


Positive trend inflation resolves the observational equivalence of various sources of real rigidities which are first-order equivalent under zero trend inflation. This paper builds on this observation to assess the empirical performance of three widely used types of real rigidities — firm-specific capital, firm-specific wages and a kinked-demand curve — in matching the U.S. inflation dynamics. Firm-specific wages outperform the kinked-demand curve and firm-specific capital in terms of empirical fit. We document that positive trend inflation might reduce the ability of firm-specific factors to prolong the real affects of monetary disturbances.


Work in progress

COVID-19

Positive trend inflation resolves the observational equivalence of various sources of real rigidities which are first-order equivalent under zero trend inflation. This paper builds on this observation to assess the empirical performance of three widely used types of real rigidities — firm-specific capital, firm-specific wages and a kinked-demand curve — in matching the U.S. inflation dynamics. Firm-specific wages outperform the kinked-demand curve and firm-specific capital in terms of empirical fit. We document that positive trend inflation might reduce the ability of firm-specific factors to prolong the real affects of monetary disturbances.