Research

Published articles

"Judgment in Macroeconomic Output Growth Predictions: Efficiency, Accuracy and Persistence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), Apr.-Jun. 2025.

"The Effect of Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Financial Traders Survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137, Aug. 2024.

"The Changing Nature of the Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Central Bank Preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol 90, Aug. 2020 (with R. Caputo). 

“Extracting Information on the Economic Activity from Business and Consumer Surveys in an Emerging Economy (Chile),” Revista Economía Chilena,  Banco Central de Chile, vol. 22(3), Dec. 2019 (with C. Figueroa).

Diario Financiero

“The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks in a Copper-Rich Economy. The Case of Chile,” Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), Oct. 2019.

centralbanking.com

“A System for Forecasting Chilean Cash Demand - The Role of Forecast Combinations,” Revista Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, vol. 22(2), Aug. 2019 (with C. Figueroa).

“Anomalies in Macroeconomic Prediction Errors. Evidence from Chilean Private Forecasters,” International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), Jul.-Sep. 2019.

“Credit Risk and Monetary Pass-Through. Evidence from Chile,” Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36, Jun. 2018.

“Revisiting the Price Puzzle in Chile,” Revista Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, vol. 20(1), Apr. 2017.

“Propagation of Inflationary Shocks in Chile,” Revista Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, vol. 19(3), Dec. 2016.

“The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation,” International Finance, Wiley, vol. 19(2), Jun. 2016 (with C. Medel and P. Pincheira).

centralbanking.com ECB speech

“What Affects the Predictions of Private Forecasters? The Role of Central Bank Forecasts in Chile,” International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), Oct.-Dec. 2015.

Vox LACEA centralbanking.com

“Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: A Cross-Country Analysis,” Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a Uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(4), Aug. 2015.

“Efectos de Shocks al Precio del Petróleo sobre la Economía Chilena y sus Socios Comerciales,” Revista Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, vol. 17(1), Apr. 2014 (with M. Ricaurte).

“Extracting GDP-Signals from the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity: Evidence from Chilean Real-time Data,” OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2013/1, https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k48345b3lkc.

“Dinámica de Tasas de Interés de Mercado en Tiempos de Turbulencia Financiera,” Revista Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, vol. 13(1), Apr. 2010 (with J.S. Becerra, L. Ceballos and F. Córdova).

“Incertidumbre en las Series Desestacionalizadas de Actividad y Demanda en Chile,” Revista Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, vol. 13(1), Apr. 2010 (with C.A. Medel).

“Un Indicador Líder Compuesto para la Actividad Económica en Chile,” Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 22(2), Apr.-Jun. 2009.

“An Alternative Core Inflation Measure,” German Economic Review, Wiley, vol. 10(2), Apr. 2009.

“Ponderaciones y la Tasa de Inflación en Chile,” Revista Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, vol. 12(1), Apr. 2009. 

Working Papers and Reports

"Climate Change and Monetary Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Macroeconomics of Development No. 220, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2025.

"Análisis del Funcionamiento de la Regla Dual en Chile y Propuestas para Incentivar su Cumplimento," Consejo Fiscal Autónomo de Chile, 2025 (with J.P. Medina)

“Consumer inflation expectations and regional price changes,” Working Paper No. 347. Narodowy Bank Polski, 2022 (with T. Łyziak and E. Stanisławska).

SUERF

“Surveying the Survey. What can we Learn about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations?,” Working Paper No. 889, Banco Central de Chile, 2020.

“Pass-Through, Expectations, and Risks. What affects Chilean Banks’ Interest Rates?,” Working Paper No. 780, Banco Central de Chile, 2016.

“Bank’s Price Setting and Lending Maturity: Evidence from an Inflation-Targeting Economy,” Working Paper No. 762, Banco Central de Chile, 2015 (with E. Luttini).

“The Changing Nature of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations. New Evidence for Inflation-Targeting Countries,” Working Paper No. 730, Banco Central de Chile, 2014 (with R. Caputo and G. Leyva).

“Una Nota Introductoria a la Encuesta de Expectativas Económicas,” Estudios Económicos Estadísticos No. 82, Banco Central de Chile, 2010.

“Empalme de Subclases del IPC de Chile. Series Mensuales 1989-2008,” Estudios Económicos Estadísticos No. 79, Banco Central de Chile, 2009 (with H. Rubio and C. Saavedra).

“Medidas Alternativas de Inflación Subyacente para Chile,” Working Paper No. 471, Banco Central de Chile, 2008 (with J.F. Córdova and M.C. Grünwald).

“Encuestas de Opinión Empresarial del Sector Industrial en América Latina,” Estudios Estadísticos y Prospectivos No. 64, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2008 (with M. Gallardo).

“The Chilean Fiscal Rule,” Working Paper No. 57, Danmarks Nationalbank, 2008.

Summary in "The Chilean Fiscal Rule," Monetary Review, Danmarks Nationalbank Monetary Review, 3rd Quarter 2008.  

“Un Sistema de Indicadores Líderes Compuestos Para la Región de América Latina,” Estudios Estadísticos y Prospectivos No. 51, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2007 (with M. Gallardo).

“Indicadores Líderes Compuestos. Resumen de Metodologías de Referencia Para Construir un Indicador Regional en América Latina,” Estudios Estadísticos y Prospectivos No. 49, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2007 (with M. Gallardo).

“Does the Purchasing Power Parity Hold Within the US?,” Working Paper No. 2002/18, European University Institute, 2002.

“Finding Evidence of Stock Market Integration Applying a CAPM or Testing for Common Stochastic Trends. Is there a Connection?,” Working Paper No. 2002/17, European University Institute, 2002. 

Work in progress

"Consumer Inflation Expectations and Local Price Changes: Learning from Experience" (with T. Łyziak & E. Stanisławska), R&R.

“Determinant of Inflation Expectations De-anchoring: An Empirical Study in Chile”, R&R.

"Financial Literacy and the Impact of Central Bank Communication on Consumer Inflation Expectations" (with K. Pérez), R&R.

"Scale and Mode Effects in Measuring Household Financial Perceptions: Evidence from Two U.S. Consumer Surveys", Submitted.

"Consumers' Gasoline Price Expectations: Who React to What?", Submitted.

"Climate Change and Monetary Policy in Latin America and the Carribean: Concepts and Evidence".

"The Economic Role of Financial Development in LMI LAC Countries under Climate Shocks" (with F. Villarreal).

"Are Aggregate and Disaggregate Inflation Expectations Consistent? Evicence from the Survey of Consumer Expectations".

"Households' Worries and Economic Expectations".