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All these bonuses will bring you to +105% trade value (mercantile diplomacy stance gives +10% trade value), the extra amenities from the merchant jobs will push up stability and may well push you to ~+120% trade value. You can pick up extra trade value bonuses from galactic commerce resolutions, being in a trade league federation, and picking up a merchant enclave governor.

The Metas surrounding games, not only TI4 but multiplayer games in general, have their own kind of evolution. The older a game gets, the more refined the Metas become. In my opinion, the trade Meta of TTS (TableTop Simulator) TI4 is an excellent example for this phenomenon: The famous or infamous "X-1". Newer players can be sometimes confused by this largely unwritten rules and sometimes, they draw the ire of the entire table because of one tiny decision:

This article is a cross between a beginner guide and a basic meta analysis. I want to have a look at what "X-1" is, why it is good and why you should break it sometimes. This is all based on a largely theoretical point of view to showcase the effect "X-1" has on a table, so be aware that things like rethorical skills, charisma or negotation skills may invalidate any or all of the things I describe here.

Part 1: The importance of trade

Imagine a game of TI were every player can exactly trade one time with each player per timeframe and each trade would bring a player one step closer to victory. If that is not very hard for you, then because thats trade in TI in a simplified form. Whenever a player trades with another player he gets a "something" that he needs to get closer to victory. Lets call this something an "advantage" (adv.). One trade per turn with each player means, that a player can get 5 adv. per turn in a 6 player game. If all players do the same and have the same number of turns, no player can get ahead of the others. Their relative adv. stays at 0. (Danger: Mad paint skills ahead)

Each player has to trade as much as he can, just to stay even with all others. Once a player has one turn less or just cannot trade for some reason with another player, he will fall back. So for what reasons can a player fall back? Obvious reasons are the inability to be neighbour with another player or the lack of "something" to trade. Also some people are just not that good at making deals and for that reason may be closing less deals as they could. Finally the last reason is, because war broke out.

Part 2: War interrupts trade

When one player decides to start a war with another player, like in really taking systems with the intention of keeping them, he is normally cut out of trades at least by the target of his aggression, maybe even by other players. This leads to less possible trades per turn for the aggressor as well as anyone that cuts him out.

The advantage per turn no is decreased to a mere 4 adv. per turn or in relative terms -1 adv. per turn, for the agressor and anyone who cuts ties. Cutting trade is therefore a bad idea. The longer this condition stays that way, the more negative relative adv. Is accumulated. A short descisive war can be a good thing, if A. Trade is re-established afterwards and B. The gain of the war is greater then the trade lost. That is because, to phrase it with the points I already established, having more or better planets then all other players will produce adv. as well.

Part 3: The value of future Trades

Breaking a deal or starting a war often disrupts not only current trade deals, but also destroys another valuable commodities: Trust. If the table gains the impression, that you wont keep your deals, you can expect prices you have to pay to rise. Aggressive actions towards a neighbour is often seens as less negative, if you were straightforward with the attack, except for the target neighbour of course. This again lowers you adv. you can gain per turn, setting you back behind the other players. So why does trade often break down in the last turns of a game if war is bad and trust is valuable? Because every trade action carries with it an expectation of trades to happen in the future. If you break trust, you gain a bit more now but pay for it with future trades.

An example:

A 4 commodity faction gets refreshed (gaining commodities via trade strategy card) and washed (trading the commodities to turn them into trade goods on a 1 for 1 base) for a cost of 2 tg per round. His adv. is 2 tg per turn. He could betray his trade partner, by keeping the commodities and washing them in other ways for and adv. o 4, but he would lose his opportunity to get refreshed for the rest of the game.

As you can see, breaking this kind of deal early is disadvantageous, while breaking this deal late game provides the same or a higher amount of tg. For this reason, trades become more and more unreliable towards the end game.

Part 4: So what is a "X-1"?

The example above describes how a faction trades effectively 2 tg for a refresh of its commodities and a transaction to turn its commodities into useable tg. This would be called an "X-2". You probably guessed it, a "X-1" is the same, but for the cost of 1 tg. Effectively when the trade strategy card is played you get refreshed, and in a transaction give your new commodities to the holder of the trade strategy card to get the same number of trade goods -1 back. Somethings to note: This deal is non-binding (so can be broken), as the refresh has to be resolved before the commodity can be transfered. A way to make this deal binding is via the trade agreement card (the holder of the trade strategy card buys the TA for its value -1) or by transfering the payment of 1 tg at the moment of the refresh (but then the washing of the commodities into tg is not possible in the same round).

Part 5: Why is "X-1" (at the moment of this writing) the TTS standard

"X-1" offers benefits for everyone involved. The holder of the trade strategy card can expect a sum of useable tg of 3+(commodity value)+(number of neighbours -1). Thats about 8 tg for a 3 commodity faction with two neighbours, doable turn 1. Everyone else involved should receive (commodity value -1) usable tg, while everyone staying out of it receives 0 tg. Compare this to part 1. The holder of the trade strategy card receives multiple adv., everyone involved receives 1 adv., everyone outside the deal receives 0 adv.

Part 6: The neighbour-problem

Having two neighbours is fine, but being neighbour with all other players would be even better to get this last few tgs out of the trade card. And there is a solution for this. In the Agenda phase the neighbour-rule for transactions is not in effect. Everyone can deal freely with all other players. But how does that help with "X-1" that happens in the action phase? The answer is "debt meta". Liked by some loathed by others, "debt meta" describes refreshing another player you are not neighbour with, for the promise of paying 1 tg on the next occassion, often in the agenda phase. As a reminder a ownership token is sometimes given instead of a tg. As an ownership token is no real object within the game, that does not fall under transaction rules. This way, you will get those last 2-3 tg out of you strategy card, although you will have to wait a bit and have a slight risk of being scammed.

Part 7: When not to "X-1"

Trade is always good, so always trade? No. There are situations where a transaction should be skipped. The most obvious one is if a 2-point-spend-objective is available (10 tg, 16 ressources/influence etc.). Partaking in a "X-1" in this situation can be a king making move, unless you win first of course. Another situation when an "X-1" can be questionable if you are playing a 2 commodities faction. Partaking would mean 1 tg for you and 1 tg for the trade holder. Do you really need that 1 tg, while giving another player even more power this turn? If that tg gives you a turn 1 Carrier + two Infantry to take two more planets, do it, great trade. If you have no real idea what to do with it, maybe just decline the trade. Finally, if its later in the game, maybe break the deal. Talk with a neighbour secretly, get your refreshes and then wash each other. Cut the trade holder out. Gives a little spice to those long rounds.

Part 8: Bringing it into TI reality

Of course in a TI game, this does not always work that way. You wont trade every single turn and you wont be neighbour with all other players, so the adv. you gain per turn is limited by board position and the goods (TG, Commodities, Prom Notes, Board Position, Favours and Services in general) you can trade. In other words: Some factions are better at trading then others. But I hope this long winded post gives an idea why peaceful negotiations are so common in TTS TI4. They are just following the Red Queens commandment and run as fast as they can. I think that sometimes players fall into the trap of trading for the sake of trading. A transaction should always serve a purpose. If someone asks you for something, there is a reason to that. Remember this. Name a higher price above what you really want and then negotiate. Do not accept prices just because "Magi-math says so". ff782bc1db

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