Research

Working Papers

Competitive Effects of Entry of Traditional and New Grocery Retail Formats in Rural America

(with Rigoberto Lopez, Debashrita Mohapatra, and Sandro Steinbach) (under review)

Abstract: Entry of new formats and decline of traditional formats have transformed the competition landscape of the U.S. grocery retail industry in the last few decades. This article examines the evolution of competition effects from entry among four major grocery retail formats -- supermarket chain stores, supercenters, dollar stores, and independent grocery stores in non-metro U.S. counties. Applying the model of Schaumans & Verboven (2015) to 2000-2020 establishment level data, we estimate market expansion and markup effects from entry by formats. As expected, markup declines from entry of large formats, like supercenters, are substantially larger than for entry of small format stores, like dollar stores. Over time, entry is causing more significant declines in markups by supermarkets, indicating rising competition. In contrast, markup decline effects on supercenters' markups is attenuating. No clear trends for markup declines from entry are detected for independent grocery stores or dollar stores, as they are operating on rather thin markups already.

Market Consolidation and Disparities in Infant Formula Sales: Economic Insights from COVID-19 and the 2022 Formula Shortages

(with Tatiana Andreyeva) (under review)

Abstract: A stable formula supply is essential for formula-fed infants, yet high market concentration leaves the sector vulnerable to disruption. Using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner Data from 2018-2022, this study examines how both demand- and supply-side shocks affected formula sales. We find that demand-driven factors during the COVID-19 pandemic increased formula volume sales by 14.8%, with stronger impacts in low-income and rural areas. In contrast, the 2022 supply shortage reduced volume sales by 24.3% and raised retail prices by 7%, with disproportionately larger sales losses in low-income communities. Greater supplier concentration further amplified the volume decline during the supply shock. These findings highlight the need for regulatory reforms to strengthen supply chain resilience and reduce disparities in access to infant formula.

Reducing Waste, Changing Habits: The Effect of U.S. Organics Diversion Programs on Food Purchases

(with Jackson Somers and Sulin Chowdhur) (under review)

Abstract: Food waste contributes approximately 8% of global methane emissions and diverting it from landfills yields significant environmental benefits. As the importance of food waste diversion is becoming recognized globally, a variety of policy initiatives are being implemented to promote diversion. Due to the substantial fraction of waste produced at the household in developed countries, a focus on household diversion is necessary to meet proposed diversion goals. This study examines the impact of residential curbside organics diversion programs, which redirect food waste from high-emission sources (e.g. landfills) to lower-emission sources (e.g. composting), on household food purchases. We use UPC-level food purchasing data for 58,242 households, across 294 cities in the US, from 2004 to 2020 to investigate the effects of composting programs on household food purchases across a five different (potentially) compostable food categories. We implement a difference-in-differences framework, finding a total effect of $8.66 under mandatory programs, representing 8.2% of average monthly food spending. Separately, we find that voluntary curbside composting programs increase monthly household food expenditures by $3.58, while mandatory programs that require residents to separate organics lead to an additional $5.08 increase. These results indicate a notable rebound effect: while diversion programs reduce landfill emissions, the unaccounted for increase in food demand leads to an estimated $24 billion rise in food loss and waste in the United States alone and nearly $827 million in additional greenhouse gas damages. The findings highlight the need to account for behavioral responses in environmental policy design.

Productivity Growth and Employment in U.S. Food and Beverage Manufacturing

(with Rigoberto Lopez) (under review)

Abstract: We examine the role of productivity in employment changes in U.S. food manufacturing from 1959-2018. We proceed in two steps. First, we apply data to a translog production function that accounts for Hicks-neutral and labor-increasing productivity growth. Then we decompose labor demand to derive labor growth under cost minimization and competitive input market conditions. The results reveal that (1) labor-augmenting productivity growth has been the leading factor driving employment decline, followed by Hicks-neutral productivity growth and relative wages; (2) demand expansion, as reflected by output growth, drives employment up but not enough to counteract employment decline induced by other drivers; and (3) capital did not have a significant effect in this industry. Our results highlight the need to account for labor-augmenting productivity in studies of this type.

Publications

Parenting Practices and Preschool-Age Child Development Outcomes: Evidence from Rural Western China, with Yu Bai, Buyao Liu, Lei Wang, et al. (Journal of Child and Family Studies) [Link]

Are infant/toddler developmental delays a problem across rural China? With Lei Wang, Wilson Liang, Siqi Zhang, Laura Jonsson, et al. (Journal of Comparative Economics) [Link]

Dynamic Anemia Status from Infancy to Preschool-Age: Evidence from Rural China, with Lei Wang, Sarah-Eve Dill, Yiwei Hu, and Scott Rozelle (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health) [Link]

Contract teachers and student achievement in rural China: evidence from class fixed effects. With Lei Wang, Siqi Zhang, et al. (Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics) [Link]

Human Capital and the Middle Income Trap: How Many of China’s Youth are Going to High School? With Lei Wang, Cody Abbey, and Scott Rozelle (The Developing Economies) [Link]

Is Infant/Toddler Anemia a Problem across Rural China? A Mixed-Methods Analysis. With Lei Wang, Yonglei Sun, Buyao Liu, Lijuan Zheng, et al. (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health) [Link]

The cost‐effectiveness of alternative vision screening models among preschool children in rural China, with Lei Wang, Nathan Congdon, Siqi Zhang, et al. (Acta Ophthalmologica) [Link]

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