Working papers

The Counter-Reformation, science, and long-term growth: a Black Legend? [link]

Abstract: Is it true that the Catholic reaction to Protestantism—the Counter-Reformation—led to scientific and economic decline for hundreds of years? Introducing biography-based evidence, I show that Catholic and Protestant European cities long shared comparable trends of scientists per capita. But after imposing intellectual control in response to the Reformation, Catholics experienced a dramatic scientific collapse coinciding with the Counter-Reformation’s different timing and intensity across cities. Reassuringly, science began to recover after the Counter-Reformation was dismantled, but the recovery stagnated when Counter-Reformation-rooted institutions were revived centuries later against new ideological threats. Although it has largely vanished by now, the gap in science that emerged during the Counter-Reformation was enormous, lasted centuries, and helps explaining Europe’s unequal modern economic growth.  Protestants also tried to impose their own bigotry but lacked sufficient coordination and authority. Had they been more effective, modern science and sustained economic growth might have never taken off.

Media coverage: Weekendavisen (leading Danish newspaper) 

Why constant? A 'new Kaldor fact' and a solution to the 'knife-edge' assumptions of growth models

Abstract:  Why has economic growth in advanced economies been nearly constant for more than 200 years, even if education and institutions, among other factors that seem relevant for growth, have changed dramatically? The number of notable researchers worldwide has been growing at a strikingly constant rate since the early 18th century. This “new Kaldor fact” provides an explanation within the framework of so-called semi-endogenous growth theory and thus a plausible solution to the “linearity critique” or “knife-edge” assumptions of growth models. Some areas of science like mathematics or physics appear to “feed on themselves” in a deterministic manner. If undisturbed, so do science and human knowledge as a whole.

Solow's secret? A note on bounded growth with CES functions

Abstract: Constant elasticity of substitution (CES) functions with high capital-labor complementarity have been increasingly used to model macroeconomic phenomena.  This note discusses some peculiarities of growth in this setting that are usually neglected in the literature. It shows that, if the elasticity of substitution is below one, neoclassical growth with Harrod-neutral technical change is bounded by the savings rate and may produce a capital share of one. It also discusses some implications, such the possibility of capital-augmenting technical change in a balanced growth path, and reassesses Solow's original contribution.

Science under autocracies

Abstract: How does science perform under autocracies? I study the emergence, productivity, and migration of scientists under autocracies worldwide during the last three centuries. I find that autocracies produce very heterogeneous outcomes depending on a range of factors, including culture and ideology. I show how repression-driven brain drains reduce scientific potential dramatically and systematically, especially in recent decades. Still, some autocracies have been able to outperform democracies by wide margins in some dimensions. I discuss the factors explaining different outcomes and what we can learn from top-down policies addressing market imperfections.

Macroeconomic constants and the constants of nature

Abstract: Although recent decades have witnessed the decline of interest rates and the labor share, most of modern growth featured macroeconomic constants that need to be explained. This paper shows how macroeconomic constants result from physical and anthropological constraints in a model of endogenous mechanization. In contrast to canonical endogenous growth models, the growth mechanism does not require nonrival knowledge, nor imperfect  competition, nor assuming increasing returns to all factors (including spending in innovation), nor a long-term elasticity of substitution above unity. The calibration is subject to less degrees of freedom than in standard macroeconomic models and matches observables closely. Deep issues in growth theory, such as the disputed interpretation of factor augmentation, Uzawa's growth theorem, and Salter's critique on biased innovations can be reinterpreted through the lens of the model.

Science, invention, and the wealth of nations: do 'great minds' predict long-term development?

Abstract:  Using biographical data of scientist and inventors, I show that research activity across the world is largely exogenous to income and that it predicts economic development over the long run better than any other established predictor. I find that scientists and inventors have an impact on income that peaks after a lag of 100 years with an elasticity of 30%. This long-term correlation has been steadily rising on average since the beginning of modern growth, what may suggest an even greater importance of science and invention in the future.