Research

Is Growth Accompanied by Input-Output Convergence? A Sector-Agnostic Investigation

I conduct a first formal test of a theory of economic development outlined by Leontief and focused on structural and technological factors. To facilitate this, I develop a set of input-output distance indicators (IODs) which capture the ‘distance’ of a given economy-year from an Advanced Economy Benchmark for a given characteristic. I use a database of annual input-output tables for 76 economies over the period 1996-2020. 

My findings uphold Leontief’s theory: growth in GNI per capita is accompanied by an increased intensity of input-output activity and reductions in sector-level trade imbalances; while analysis of IODs shows that Advanced Economies share similar input-output attributes and economies converge towards the Advanced Economy Benchmark as incomes increase. In a preliminary extension into the realm of structural dynamics I find that for 3/4 of input-output variables tested, a greater-than-expected maturity is associated with faster economic growth on the subsequent medium-run.

Work in Progress

A Stock Flow Consistent Model of Constraints to and Policies for Convergence

I build a two-country post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent growth model, parameterized for advanced and developing economies.  I incorporate into the model two constraints and test the effectiveness of three policies oriented towards achieving convergence under these conditions, sometimes deploying two policies in combination.  I believe this is the first such model to include all these features.

The results of simulations of the model are quite straightforward.  Both a Tax-Cooled Investment and an Overseas Development Aid (ODA) policy can successfully overcome a supply constraint.  Introduction of a challenging dynamic trade environment reduces the pace of convergence under the Tax-Cooled Investment policy and results in the ODA policy failing.  If we supplement ODA with a Tax-Cooled Depreciation policy the headline performance of the economy becomes identical to that under the Tax-Cooled Investment strategy.  Finally, the combination of Tax-Cooled Investment and a limited Tax-Cooled Depreciation delivers faster convergence yet.

How do Real Depreciation and Appreciation Episodes Affect Export Performance?
A Sector-Level Study of the Impact of Competitiveness in Indonesia and Thailand

I develop a methodology for identifying real depreciation and appreciation episodes as a basis for exploring the impact of medium-term competitiveness on various economic outcomes.  I focus on Indonesia and Thailand, South East Asian economies which have experienced substantial economic growth, and exchange rate movement, over recent decades.  In the wake of several recent articles I run tests designed to elicit the impact of depreciation and appreciation episodes on sectoral export performance taking into account both product technology categories and indicators designed to capture the sensitivity of a sector to price competitiveness.  I also undertake estimations using more conventional indicators of medium-run real competitiveness.