Research
Published Papers
with Richard Disney, John Gathergood and Stephen Machin
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 655, October 2023, Pages 2640–2675 .
“Right to Buy” (RTB), a large-scale natural experiment whereby incumbent tenants in public housing could buy properties at heavily-subsidised prices, increased the UK homeownership rate by over 10 percentage points between its 1980 introduction and the 1990s. This paper studies the impact of this reform on crime by leveraging exogenous variation in eligibility for the policy. Results show that RTB generated significant property crime reductions. Behavioural changes of incumbent tenants and renovation of public properties were the main drivers of this crime reduction. This is evidence of a novel means by which subsidised homeownership and housing policy can reduce criminality.
with Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin and Rob Witt
Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 18, Issue 2, April 2020, Pages 1040–1077.
In many historical episodes, criminal activity displays booms and busts. One clear example is the case of metal crime in the United Kingdom (and elsewhere) where, in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices, thefts rose very sharply in the 2000s, after which they fell. This paper studies the respective roles of prices, policing and policy in shaping this crime boom and bust. Separate study of each reveals metal crime being driven up via sizeable and significant metal crime–price elasticities and driven down by changes in policing and policy. A regression-based decomposition analysis confirms that all three of the hypothesised factors considered in the paper - prices, policing and policy - were empirically important in the different stages of metal theft's boom and bust.
with Stephen Machin
The Economic Journal, Volume 130, Issue 625, January 2020, Pages 125–159.
This article studies whether pupil performance gains in autonomous schools in England can be attributed to the strategic exclusion of poorly performing pupils. England has had two phases of academy school introduction—the first, in the 2000s, being a school improvement programme for poorly performing schools and the second a mass academisation programme from 2010 for better-performing schools. Overall, exclusion rates are higher in academies, with the earlier programme featuring much higher rates of exclusion. However, rather than functioning as a means of test score manipulation, the higher exclusion rate reflects the rigorous discipline enforced by the pre-2010 academies.
with Karen Thorpe, Peter Rankin, Tony Beatton, Sandy Houen, Iram Siraj and Sally Staton
Early Childhood Research Quarterly, Volume 53, 2020, Pages 274-286.
Observational assessment has become an integral component of the quality improvement agenda in Early Care and Education (ECE) and has been significant in directing attention to quality of interactions within the ECE setting. Understanding the functioning of observational assessment is increasingly important as the stakes are high. Assessment outcomes influence programme funding. Assessment criteria direct educators to preference particular types of experiences for children, grounded in the assumptions that these criteria are those that best predict children's’ school readiness, ongoing achievements and wellbeing. We examine two contextual factors that might affect assessment functioning: (1) When – the timing of assessment in the ECE day and (2) What – the content and format of the activities observed. We provide the example of the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (CLASS), analysing 11,341 observations cycles undertaken in a representative sample of 2306 Australian pre-K (age 3–4 years) through Year 2 (age 7–8 years) classrooms. Our data show a generalised decline in instructional, organisational and emotional support across the ECE day (8am to 4pm) with recovery in emotional support at the end of the day. Within-classroom analyses demonstrate that whole group and small group formats and science, math, and social science content inflate, while meal times, physical activity, and transitions constrain CLASS scores. Separate analyses for pre-K classrooms showed similar patterns. We discuss the findings in terms of the purpose of assessment and suggest that particular times and events in the ECE day might serve as barometers of quality.
with Mattia Makovec, Ririn Purnamasari and Astrid Savitri
Journal of Economic Geography, Volume 18, Issue 4, 1 July 2018, Pages 915–950.
This article studies the consequences of restrictions to migration at the origin on labor market outcomes and school enrolment in origin communities. Our difference-in-differences specification exploits the differential impact across districts in Indonesia of a reform that restricted the migration of Indonesian female domestic workers towards Saudi Arabia in 2011. Our results suggest that this reform did not lead to higher unemployment in Indonesia, but it increased the proportion of workers employed in informal jobs and in agriculture. No detectable change in the consumption patterns of Indonesian households appears from our analysis, suggesting that rural areas in Indonesia could absorb the sudden increase in the availability of workforce. Our findings also show an increase in junior secondary school enrolment of both males and females, arguably reflecting the importance of the maternal presence in the household for the investment in human capital of children.
with Peter Dolton
Labour Economics, Volume 48, October 2017, Pages 87-104.
We revisit the question of what is the rate of return to education in Great Britain. We make two contributions. Firstly, we re-assess the robustness of Harmon and Walker (1995), Oreopoulos (2006) and Devereux and Hart (2010) to equation specification and estimation method. Secondly, we generalize the previous IV approaches by using the month of birth in the calculation of a more accurate IV exploiting the 1947, 1963 and 1972 UK School Leaving Age reforms. Our results highlight the importance of equation specification and they provide a robust case for a 6% Rate of Return to Education for men.
Book Chapters
Handbook of Migration and Globalisation, 2017.
Work in Progress
with Tony Beatton and Michael Kidd
CESifo Working Paper No 9526, Submitted.