Mathematical Perspectives on Extinction Dynamics Workshop

Workshop on Mathematical Perspectives on Extinction Dynamics

International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy

January 14-16, 2026 

Overview

The meeting brings together researchers using mathematics to explain how extinction events unfold as dynamical processes—linking deep-time reconstructions to models that can sharpen our understanding of today’s biodiversity crisis and future risk. This closure meeting synthesises the Ma(th)ssX network’s main advances in mathematical and data-driven modelling of extinction dynamics. It consolidates shared frameworks and benchmarks, and sets research priorities for interpreting past events and assessing present–future extinction risk.

Schedule

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

09:30–12:00 pm | The invited speacker presentations

• Ivan Sudakow (The Open University, UK): The Ma(th)ssX network: an overview.

• Andrej Spiridonov (Vilnius University, Lithuania): Mass extinctions and biotic turnover as multi-scale events: connecting changes in abundance and species composition.

• Valerie Livina (National Physics Laboratory, UK): Tipping point analysis of real-world dynamical systems. 

• Teresa Vaz Martins (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK): Cumulative pressures on marine ecosystems.

• Thomas Gernon (University of Southampton, UK): Delayed expressions of continental breakup in the oceans.

• Sergi Valverde (Institute of Evolutionary Biology, Spain): A multiscale approach to punctuated evolution in nature and society. 

• Corinne Myers (University of New Mexico, USA): Pick your Poison: Environmental change and paleoecology in the Late Cretaceous.

• Mike Andersen (Museum of Southwestern Biology, NM, USA): The Role of Islands in the Diversification and Extinction of Birds. 

2:00–5:00 pm | Group Discussion

Thursday, January 15, 2026

10:00 am–5:00 pm | Work in Groups

Friday, January 16, 2026

10:00 am–5:00 pm | Synthesis and Analysis Meeting.

Venue

The Guest House at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy—an international institute that hosts research programmes, workshops, and schools in theoretical physics, mathematics, and complex Earth-system science, with a strong focus on building global scientific collaboration and capacity.