Research

Working Papers

Electoral Integrity & Local Development: Experimental Evidence From Colombia - Joint with Natalia Garbiras-Díaz

Abstract: Today most countries hold elections to choose their leaders, yet only about half of these elections are free and fair. This paper studies whether enhancing electoral integrity improves the provision of basic public services, a central dimension of local development. We leverage experimental variation from a randomized intervention during Colombia’s 2019 mayoral elections, which successfully reduced irregularities such as fraud and vote buying across nearly 700 municipalities. We document four sets of results. First, municipalities with cleaner elections experienced increased access to local public services over the following four years. Selection and accountability channels underpinning this result, and develop a framework to quantify the contribution of each channel. We find that selection accounts for 22--30 percent of the effect, while accountability explains the remainder. Third, we identify specific mayoral actions behind these gains: local governments in treated municipalities adopted more competitive procurement practices and faced fewer corruption-related judicial investigations. Finally, we rule out alternative mechanisms, including increased fiscal capacity and support from higher levels of government. Taken together, the results show that safeguarding democratic processes yields tangible welfare gains for citizens.

Job Retention at Scale - Joint with Alexander Hijzen 

• Draft available upon request.

Abstract: We study the effectiveness of job retention (JR) schemes at scale, by focusing on their unprecedented use in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a novel strategy to estimate their causal effects based on a rule determining program generosity. Given the large scale use of the scheme (almost 25% of the employed at its peak) we argue that it might have a first-order general equilibrium effect by preventing congestion externalities in the labor market. We document the existence of these externalities and estimate the overall effects of JR support using a simple model. We find that it had modest deadweight effects, and thus managed to prevent employment destruction in a cost-effective way. Moreover, we find evidence of strong general equilibrium effects, which increase its effectiveness by at least 50%. Finally, we find no evidence that it prevented reallocation to more productive firms.

Publications

All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity - Joint with Natalia Garbiras-Diaz

• American Economic Review, Vol. 112, n.8, August 2022. 

Abstract: Can Information and Communication Technologies help citizens monitor their elections? We analyze a large-scale field experiment designed to answer this question in Colombia. We leveraged Facebook advertisements sent to over 4 million potential voters to encourage citizen reporting of irregularities, and varied whether candidates were informed about the campaign in a subset of municipalities. Total reports, as well as evidence-backed ones, experienced a large increase. Across a wide array of measures, electoral irregularities decreased. Finally, the reporting campaign reduced the vote share of candidates dependent on irregularities. This light-touch intervention is more cost-effective than monitoring efforts traditionally used by policymakers.

Coverage: VoxDev, Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA).

Data and replication package: ICPSR

The Effectiveness of Job Retention Schemes During Economic Crises - Joint with Alexander Hijzen and Egbert Jongen

• Prepared for The Handbook of Labour Markets in Transition. Editor: Carcillo, Stéphane. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2024.

Abstract: Job retention schemes played a key role in preserving job-matches during the global financial crisis and, to a larger degree, during the COVID-19 crisis, covering at some point 20% of all employees in the OECD during the latter. The generosity of the support seems to have played a key role in this. Empirical studies on the global financial crisis suggest that the schemes were quite effective in

preserving matches, especially in the first year, but may have reduced productivity growth when used for a long time in some countries. Firm-level studies for the COVID-19 crisis suggest that short-time work schemes were more cost-effective in saving jobs than wage subsidy schemes, possibly because they tended to be better targeted in practice. However, it is important to note that firm level studies do not capture potentially important macro-effects of these schemes, e.g. via consumption. To be better prepared for future crises, this chapter suggests that countries prioritize an administrative system for job retention schemes that can be scaled up quickly and consider a

system of experience rating for the co-financing by firms.

Minimum Wages in a Dual Labour Market: Evidence from the 2019 Minimum-Wage Hike in Spain - Joint with Alexander Hijzen and Ana Sofia Pessoa

• Labour Economics, Vol. 98, February 2026.

Abstract: This paper provides an assessment of the 2019 minimum-wage hike in Spain, which increased the minimum wage by 22 % and directly concerned 7 % of dependent employees. We make use of two complementary approaches, one that follows incumbent workers over time and hence does not take account of any possible effects on new hires, and one that tracks employment in wage bins over time and takes account of both separations and new hires. The results are as follows. First, the minimum wage hike significantly increased the wages of directly affected workers, with small positive wage spillovers on workers with initial wages just about the new minimum wage. Second, the increase in wages comes at the expense of a reduction in low-wage employment. While employment increases just above the minimum wage, it is not sufficient to offset the decline in employment below it. Third, the reduction in employment is mainly driven by a reduction in hires of workers on open-ended contracts and to a smaller extent job losses among workers on fixed-term contracts. This illustrates that limiting the study of minimum wage hikes to stayers can dampen the estimated impact on employment.

Coverage: TUAC.

Work in Progress

• “Managing Democracies for Development” joint Natalia Garbiras-Diaz (HBS), funded by a J-PAL Governance Initiative grant, and a Fund for Innovation in Development grant.

• “The Effects of Digital Media Literacy Education in Finland” joint with Horacio Larregy (ITAM) and Jaakko Merilainen (Stockholm School of Economics), funded by a Junior Resercher ANR grant and a Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation Grant.

• "Evaluating the Impact of Title IX Regulations on Campus Sexual Harassment and Student Community Safety" joint with Michele Rosenberg (Essex University), funded by a grant from Arnold Ventures.

• “AI Literacy and Justice: A Field Experiment” joint with Natalia Garbiras-Diaz (HBS), funded by a Junior Resercher ANR grant.

Resting Papers

State Capacity and Spillovers Across Enforcement Activities: Evidence from Brazil

How Close is Too Close When it Comes to Public Auditing? Evidence from Colombian Municipalities