Recent Working Papers

• Tanaka, M. (2026). "Generalized Posterior Calibration via Infinitesimal-Jackknife Variance Matching", arXiv preprint arXiv:2610.39684. Link

• Tanaka, M. (2026), "Efficient Bootstrap Calibration of Generalized Posteriors with Importance Reweighting", arXiv preprint, arXiv:2610.37232. Link

• Tanaka, M. (2026). "Curvatre-Calibrated Quasi-Bayesian Updating for Moment-Restricted Models", arXiv preprint, arXiv:2608.19634. Link

• Tanaka, M. (2026). "Learning Bidirectional Causal Interactions with Heteroscedastic Neural Networks", arXiv preprint, arXiv:2607.22313. Link

• Tanaka, M. (2026). "A Theory of Bootstrap Coverage Calibration for Generalized Posterior Credible Sets", arXiv preprint, arXiv:2606.25729. Link

• Tanaka, M. (2026). "Quasi-Bayesian Local Projection Instrumental-Variables Method: Application to Renewable Energy and Electricity Prices", arXiv preprint, arXiv:2605.15966. Link