Publications

Spreafico M (2025).
Impact of near-positivity violations on IPTW-estimated marginal structural survival models with time-dependent confounding.
Biometrical Journal - In press. doi: 10.1002/bimj.70093 [Pre-print: arXiv 2403.19606]
Kobbeltvedt MR, Lobmaier I, Spreafico M, et al. (2025).
A comparison of the risk prediction models PERSARC and Sarculator in patients with localized soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities and trunk wall.
ESMO Open, 10(8):105517. doi: 10.1016/j.esmoop.2025.105517
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2024).
Causal effect of chemotherapy received dose intensity on survival outcome: a retrospective study in osteosarcoma.
BMC Medical Research Methodology, 24, 296. doi: 10.1186/s12874-024-02416-x
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2024).
Longitudinal Latent Overall Toxicity (LOTox) profiles in osteosarcoma: a new taxonomy based on latent Markov models.
Statistical Methods & Applications, 33:1451-1482. doi: 10.1007/s10260-024-00767-9
Spreafico M*, Hazewinkel AD*, van de Sande MAJ, et al. (2024).
Machine learning versus Cox models for predicting overall survival in patients with osteosarcoma: a retrospective analysis of the EURAMOS-1 clinical trial data.
Cancers, 16(16), 2880. doi: 10.3390/cancers16162880
Spreafico M*, Hazewinkel AD*, Gelderblom H, Fiocco M (2024).
Dynamic prediction of overall survival for patients with osteosarcoma: a retrospective analysis of the EURAMOS-1 clinical trial data.
Current Oncology, 31(7):3630-3642. doi: 10.3390/curroncol31070267
Acem I, Steyerberg EW, Spreafico M, et al. (2024).
Survival after Resection of Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumours: introducing and validating a novel type-specific prognostic model.
Neuro-Oncology Advances, 6(1):vdae083. doi: 10.1093/noajnl/vdae083
Gregorio C, Spreafico M, D’Amico S, et al. (2024).
Personalized timing for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in hematological neoplasms: a target trial emulation approach using multi-state modeling and microsimulation.
JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics, 8. doi: 10.1200/CCI.23.00205
Tentori CA, Gregorio C, Robin M, et al. [including Spreafico M] (2024).
Clinical and genomic-based Decision Support System to define the optimal timing of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes.
Journal of Clinical Oncology, 42(24). doi: 10.1200/JCO.23.02175
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2023).
Modelling time-varying covariates effect on survival via functional data analysis: application to the MRC BO06 trial in osteosarcoma.
Statistical Methods & Applications, 32:271–298. doi: 10.1007/s10260-022-00647-0
Spreafico M (2022).
Statistical modelling of time-varying covariates for survival data.
Doctoral Thesis, Politecnico di Milano (IT) & Leiden University (NL).
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Arlati F, et al. (2021).
Novel longitudinal Multiple Overall Toxicity (MOTox) score to quantify adverse events experienced by patients during chemotherapy treatment: a retrospective analysis of the MRC BO06 trial in osteosarcoma.
BMJ Open, 11:e053456. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053456
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2021).
Functional modeling of recurrent events on time-to-event processes.
Biometrical Journal, 63(5):948–967. doi: 10.1002/bimj.202000374
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2021).
Dynamic monitoring of the effects of adherence to medication on survival in heart failure patients: A joint modeling approach exploiting time-varying covariates.
Biometrical Journal, 63(2):305–322. doi: 10.1002/bimj.201900365
Spreafico M, Gasperoni F, Barbati G, et al. (2020).
Adherence to Disease-Modifying Therapy in Patients Hospitalized for HF: Findings from a Community-Based Study.
American Journal of Cardiovascular Drugs, 20:179–190. doi: 10.1007/s40256-019-00367-z

*co-first authors

Pre-prints/Submitted

Rueten-Budde AJ*, Spreafico M*, Putter H, Fiocco M. Discrimination performance in illness-death models with interval-censored disease data. arXiv 2504.19726
Masci C*, Spreafico M*, Ieva F. Joint modelling of recurrent and terminal events with discretely-distributed non-parametric frailty: application on re-hospitalizations and death in heart failure patients. arXiv 2311.04103

*co-first authors

Conference proceedings

Masci C, Spreafico M, Ieva F (2025). Simulating Joint Models for Recurrent and Terminal Events with Discrete Frailty. In: di Bella E, Gioia V, Lagazio C, Zaccarin S (eds) Statistics for Innovation III. SIS 2025. Italian Statistical Society Series on Advances in Statistics. Springer, Cham. ISBN: 978-3-031-95994-3
Masci C, Spreafico M, Ieva F (2023). Joint modelling of hospitalizations and survival in Heart Failure patients: a discrete non parametric frailty approach. Book of the Short Papers SIS2023 – Statistical Learning, Sustainability and Impact Evaluation, pp: 375-380, Pearson Italia, Ancona (Italy), June 2023. ISBN: 9788891935618AAVV.
Gregorio C, Spreafico M, Ieva F (2022). Optimal timing of bone-marrow transplant in myelodysplastic syndromes through multi-state modeling and microsimulation. Book of Short Papers SIS2022 – 51st Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society, Pearson Italia, Caserta (Italy), June 2022. ISBN: 9788891932310.
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2021). Functional modelling of recurrent drug purchases and re-hospitalizations on survival in Heart Failure patients: a real-world case study. Atti del XI Congresso Nazionale SISMEC 2021, Bari (Italy), September 2021. ISBN: 9791280503244.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2021). Modelling longitudinal latent toxicity profiles evolution in osteosarcoma patients. Book of Short Papers SIS 2021 - 50th Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society, Pearson Italia, Pisa (IT), June 2021. ISBN: 9788891927361.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco, M (2020). A functional approach to study the relationship between dynamic covariates and survival outcomes: an application to a randomized clinical trial on osteosarcoma. Book of Short Paper SIS 2020, Pearson Italia. ISBN: 9788891910776.
Ieva F, Spreafico M, Burba D (2020). Modeling the Effect of Recurrent Events on Time-to-event Processes by Means of Functional Data. In: Aneiros G., Horová I., Hušková M., Vieu P. (eds) Functional and High-Dimensional Statistics and Related Fields. IWFOS 2020. Contributions to Statistics. Springer, Cham. URL
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2019). Impact of time-dependent medication adherence on Heart Failure patients using a Joint Modelling framework. Atti del X Congresso Nazionale SISMEC 2019, Rome (Italy), September 2019. ISBN: 9788894345629.
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2019). Joint Models: a smart way to include functional data in healthcare analytics. Smart Statistics for Smart Applications - Book of Short Paper SIS2019, Pearson Italia, Milan (IT), June 2019. ISBN: 9788891915108.
Spreafico M, Gasperoni F, Barbati G, et al. (2018). Target dosages and adherence to PolyPharmacy therapy: a case study based on a regional real-world HF community. Atti del congresso congiunto SISMEC & Associazione Alessandro Liberati, Rome (IT), November 2018. ISBN: 9788894345612.
Spreafico M, Gasperoni F, Ieva F (2018). Investigating the effect of drugs consumption on survival outcome of Heart Failure patients using joint models: a case study based on regional administrative data. Book of Short Papers SIS2018, Pearson Italia, Palermo (IT), June 2018. ISBN 9788891910233.

Abstracts for statistical conferences

Spreafico M (2025). Impact Of Positivity Violations On Marginal Structural Survival Models: Insights From A Simulation Study. 65th ISI World Statistics Congress, The Hague (NL), October 2025.
Rueten-Budde AJ, Spreafico M, Putter, H, Fiocco M (2025). Discrimination performance in illness-death models with interval-censored disease data. Abstract Book SAfJR 2025 – 10th Survival Analysis for Junior Researchers Conference, Bonn (Germany), March 2025.
Spreafico M (2024). Effect of positivity violations in marginal structural survival models: a simulation study on IPTW estimator performance. Abstract Book IBC2024 – 32nd International Biometric Conference, Atlanta (USA), December 2024.
Spreafico M, Fiocco M (2024). Cluster-based recurrent marked point process approach for longitudinal volume-outcome studies. Abstract Book ISCB45 – 45th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Thessaloniki (EL), July 2024.
Spreafico M, Fiocco M (2023). Investigating positivity violations in marginal structural survival models: a simulation study. Abstract Book SAfJR 2023 – 9th Survival Analysis for Junior Researchers Conference, Ulm (Germany), September 2023.
Spreafico M, Fiocco M (2023). Investigating positivity violations in marginal structural survival models: a study on estimator performance. Abstract Book ISCB44 – 44th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Milan (IT), August 2023.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2022). Causal effects of chemotherapy dose intensity on survival outcome through Marginal Structural Models. Abstract Book ISCB43 – 43rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), August 2022.
Gregorio C, Spreafico M, Ieva F (2022). Personalized optimal treatment timing through multi-state modelling and microsimulation. Abstract Book ISCB43 – 43rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), August 2022.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2022). Causal effects of chemotherapy regimen intensity on survival outcome through Marginal Structural Models. Abstract Book IBC2022 – 31st International Biometric Conference, Riga (Latvia), July 2022.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2021). Modelling the effect of longitudinal latent toxicity profiles on survival: an application to osteosarcoma. Abstract Book ISCB42 – 42nd Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Lyon (France), July 2021.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2020). Including dynamic covariates in survival models via Functional Data Analysis: an application to osteosarcoma. Abstract Book ISCB41 – 41st Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Krakow (Poland), August 2020. ISBN: 9788394276072.
Ieva F, Spreafico M, Burba D (2020). Modeling the effect of dynamic covariates on time-to-event processes via Functional Data Analysis. Abstract Book ISCB41 – 41st Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Krakow (Poland), August 2020. ISBN: 9788394276072.
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2019). Investigating the role of Proteinuria in Renal Disease: a real-world clinical case study. Abstract Book ISCB40 - 40th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Leuven (Belgium), July 2019. ISBN: 9789461652874.

Abstracts for clinical congresses

Kobbeltvedt MR, Lobmaier I, Spreafico M, et al. (2024). 1737P A comparison of the risk prediction models Sarculator and PERSARC in patients with localized soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities and trunk wall. Annals of Oncology, 25(Suppl. 2):S1039. doi: 10.1016/j.annonc.2024.08.1829
[Abstract Book of the ESMO Congress 2024, Barcelona (ES), 13-17 September 2024.]
Tentori CA, Gregorio C, Robin M, et al. [including Spreafico M] (2023). Clinical and Genomic-Based Decision Support System to Define the Optimal Timing of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS). Blood, 142(1):197.
[65th ASH Annual Meeting and Exposition, San Diego (USA), December 2023; ASH-Frank Toohey Abstract Achievement Award for Myelodysplastic Syndromes]
Cassia MA, Ieva F, Spreafico M, et al. (2021). Predire l’outcome nella nefrite lupica: il ruolo dell’andamento della proteinuria o della singola misurazione attraverso gli alberi di regressione. Giornale Italiano di Nefrologia, 38(S78):198–199.
[Book of abstract 62° Congresso Nazionale SIN (Società Italiana di Nefrologia), Rimini (IT), October 2021]

m.spreafico@math.leidenuniv.nl

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