Publications
Embedded Files
Spreafico M*, Rueten-Budde AJ*, Putter H, Fiocco M (2026)
Discrimination performance in illness-death models with interval-censored disease data
Statistical Methods in Medical Research. doi: 10.1177/09622802251412855Spreafico M (2025)
Impact of near-positivity violations on IPTW-estimated marginal structural survival models with time-dependent confounding
Biometrical Journal, 67(6):e70093. doi: 10.1002/bimj.70093Kobbeltvedt MR, Lobmaier I, Spreafico M, et al. (2025)
A comparison of the risk prediction models PERSARC and Sarculator in patients with localized soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities and trunk wall
ESMO Open, 10(8):105517. doi: 10.1016/j.esmoop.2025.105517Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2024)
Causal effect of chemotherapy received dose intensity on survival outcome: a retrospective study in osteosarcoma
BMC Medical Research Methodology, 24, 296. doi: 10.1186/s12874-024-02416-xSpreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2024)
Longitudinal Latent Overall Toxicity (LOTox) profiles in osteosarcoma: a new taxonomy based on latent Markov models
Statistical Methods & Applications, 33:1451-1482. doi: 10.1007/s10260-024-00767-9Spreafico M*, Hazewinkel AD*, van de Sande MAJ, et al. (2024)
Machine learning versus Cox models for predicting overall survival in patients with osteosarcoma: a retrospective analysis of the EURAMOS-1 clinical trial data
Cancers, 16(16), 2880. doi: 10.3390/cancers16162880Spreafico M*, Hazewinkel AD*, Gelderblom H, Fiocco M (2024)
Dynamic prediction of overall survival for patients with osteosarcoma: a retrospective analysis of the EURAMOS-1 clinical trial data
Current Oncology, 31(7):3630-3642. doi: 10.3390/curroncol31070267Acem I, Steyerberg EW, Spreafico M, et al. (2024)
Survival after Resection of Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumours: introducing and validating a novel type-specific prognostic model
Neuro-Oncology Advances, 6(1):vdae083. doi: 10.1093/noajnl/vdae083Gregorio C, Spreafico M, D’Amico S, et al. (2024)
Personalized timing for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in hematological neoplasms: a target trial emulation approach using multi-state modeling and microsimulation.
JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics, 8. doi: 10.1200/CCI.23.00205Tentori CA, Gregorio C, Robin M, et al. [including Spreafico M] (2024)
Clinical and genomic-based Decision Support System to define the optimal timing of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes
Journal of Clinical Oncology, 42(24). doi: 10.1200/JCO.23.02175Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2023)
Modelling time-varying covariates effect on survival via functional data analysis: application to the MRC BO06 trial in osteosarcoma
Statistical Methods & Applications, 32:271–298. doi: 10.1007/s10260-022-00647-0Spreafico M (2022)
Statistical modelling of time-varying covariates for survival data
Doctoral Thesis, Politecnico di Milano (IT) & Leiden University (NL).Spreafico M, Ieva F, Arlati F, et al. (2021)
Novel longitudinal Multiple Overall Toxicity (MOTox) score to quantify adverse events experienced by patients during chemotherapy treatment: a retrospective analysis of the MRC BO06 trial in osteosarcoma
BMJ Open, 11:e053456. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053456Spreafico M, Ieva F (2021)
Functional modeling of recurrent events on time-to-event processes
Biometrical Journal, 63(5):948–967. doi: 10.1002/bimj.202000374Spreafico M, Ieva F (2021)
Dynamic monitoring of the effects of adherence to medication on survival in heart failure patients: A joint modeling approach exploiting time-varying covariates
Biometrical Journal, 63(2):305–322. doi: 10.1002/bimj.201900365Spreafico M, Gasperoni F, Barbati G, et al. (2020)
Adherence to Disease-Modifying Therapy in Patients Hospitalized for HF: Findings from a Community-Based Study
American Journal of Cardiovascular Drugs, 20:179–190. doi: 10.1007/s40256-019-00367-z
*co-first authors
Pre-prints/Submitted
Pre-prints/Submitted
Masci C*, Spreafico M*, Ieva F. Joint modelling of recurrent and terminal events with discretely-distributed non-parametric frailty: application on re-hospitalizations and death in heart failure patients. arXiv 2311.04103
Yan T, Fiocco M, van de Sande MAJ, Spreafico M. Predictimand-Based Mortality Risk Analysis in Ewing Sarcoma: Aligning Prediction with Purpose. [Submitted]
Liu Y, Fiocco M, Kirton M, Gaunt P, Brennan B, Merks JHM, Spreafico M. Assessing the effect of chemotherapy dose reductions and time delay on event-free survival in Ewing Sarcoma: a retrospective analysis of the Euro Ewing 2012 trial. [Submitted]
*co-first authors
Conference proceedings
Conference proceedings
Masci C, Spreafico M, Ieva F (2025). Simulating Joint Models for Recurrent and Terminal Events with Discrete Frailty. In: di Bella E, Gioia V, Lagazio C, Zaccarin S (eds) Statistics for Innovation III. SIS 2025. Italian Statistical Society Series on Advances in Statistics. Springer, Cham. ISBN: 978-3-031-95994-3
Masci C, Spreafico M, Ieva F (2023). Joint modelling of hospitalizations and survival in Heart Failure patients: a discrete non parametric frailty approach. Book of the Short Papers SIS2023–Statistical Learning, Sustainability and Impact Evaluation, pp: 375-380, Pearson Italia, Ancona (Italy), June 2023. ISBN: 9788891935618AAVV. URL
Gregorio C, Spreafico M, Ieva F (2022). Optimal timing of bone-marrow transplant in myelodysplastic syndromes through multi-state modeling and microsimulation. Book of Short Papers SIS2022 – 51st Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society, Pearson Italia, Caserta (Italy), June 2022. ISBN: 9788891932310.
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2021). Functional modelling of recurrent drug purchases and re-hospitalizations on survival in Heart Failure patients: a real-world case study. Atti del XI Congresso Nazionale SISMEC 2021, Bari (Italy), September 2021. ISBN: 9791280503244.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2021). Modelling longitudinal latent toxicity profiles evolution in osteosarcoma patients. Book of Short Papers SIS 2021 - 50th Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society, Pearson Italia, Pisa (IT), June 2021. ISBN: 9788891927361.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco, M (2020). A functional approach to study the relationship between dynamic covariates and survival outcomes: an application to a randomized clinical trial on osteosarcoma. Book of Short Paper SIS 2020, Pearson Italia. ISBN: 9788891910776.
Ieva F, Spreafico M, Burba D (2020). Modeling the Effect of Recurrent Events on Time-to-event Processes by Means of Functional Data. In: Aneiros G., Horová I., Hušková M., Vieu P. (eds) Functional and High-Dimensional Statistics and Related Fields. IWFOS 2020. Contributions to Statistics. Springer, Cham. URL
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2019). Impact of time-dependent medication adherence on Heart Failure patients using a Joint Modelling framework. Atti del X Congresso Nazionale SISMEC 2019, Rome (Italy), September 2019. ISBN: 9788894345629.
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2019). Joint Models: a smart way to include functional data in healthcare analytics. Smart Statistics for Smart Applications - Book of Short Paper SIS2019, Pearson Italia, Milan (IT), June 2019. ISBN: 9788891915108.
Spreafico M, Gasperoni F, Barbati G, et al. (2018). Target dosages and adherence to PolyPharmacy therapy: a case study based on a regional real-world HF community. Atti del congresso congiunto SISMEC & Associazione Alessandro Liberati, Rome (IT), November 2018. ISBN: 9788894345612.
Spreafico M, Gasperoni F, Ieva F (2018). Investigating the effect of drugs consumption on survival outcome of Heart Failure patients using joint models: a case study based on regional administrative data. Book of Short Papers SIS2018, Pearson Italia, Palermo (IT), June 2018. ISBN 9788891910233.
Abstracts for statistical conferences
Abstracts for statistical conferences
Liu Y, Fiocco M, Merks JHM, Spreafico M (2026). A two-step causal inference approach for survival outcomes under time-varying latent confounding. Abstract Book IBC 2026–33rd International Biometric Conference, Seoul (Korea), July 2026.
Liu Y, Fiocco M, Merks JHM, Spreafico M (2026). Assessing the causal effect of dynamic treatment adjustments on survival in Ewing Sarcoma: A two-step longitudinal approach using latent Markov and marginal structural models. Book of Abstracts SAfJR 2026–11th Survival Analysis for Junior Researchers Conference, Amsterdam (the Netherlands), March 2026.
Rosetta L, Spreafico M, Fiocco M (2026). Assessing calibration methods for multistate models: insights from simulation studies with moderate sample sizes. Book of Abstracts SAfJR 2026–11th Survival Analysis for Junior Researchers Conference, Amsterdam (the Netherlands), March 2026.
van Goor SAL, Spreafico M, Merks JHM, Fiocco M (2026). Comparing causal survival forests and causal Cox model for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect. Book of Abstracts SAfJR 2026–11th Survival Analysis for Junior Researchers Conference, Amsterdam (the Netherlands), March 2026.
Yan T, Fiocco M, van de Sande MAJ, Spreafico M (2026). Predictimand-based mortality risk analysis in Ewing sarcoma: Aligning prediction with purpose. Book of Abstracts SAfJR 2026–11th Survival Analysis for Junior Researchers Conference, Amsterdam (the Netherlands), March 2026.
Spreafico M (2025). Impact Of Positivity Violations On Marginal Structural Survival Models: Insights From A Simulation Study. Abstracts WSC 2025–65th ISI World Statistics Congress, The Hague (NL), October 2025.
Rueten-Budde AJ, Spreafico M, Putter, H, Fiocco M (2025). Discrimination performance in illness-death models with interval-censored disease data. Abstract Book SAfJR 2025–10th Survival Analysis for Junior Researchers Conference, Bonn (Germany), March 2025.
Spreafico M (2024). Effect of positivity violations in marginal structural survival models: a simulation study on IPTW estimator performance. Abstract Book IBC 2024–32nd International Biometric Conference, Atlanta (USA), December 2024.
Spreafico M, Fiocco M (2024). Cluster-based recurrent marked point process approach for longitudinal volume-outcome studies. Abstract Book ISCB45–45th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Thessaloniki (EL), July 2024.
Spreafico M, Fiocco M (2023). Investigating positivity violations in marginal structural survival models: a simulation study. Abstract Book SAfJR 2023–9th Survival Analysis for Junior Researchers Conference, Ulm (Germany), September 2023.
Spreafico M, Fiocco M (2023). Investigating positivity violations in marginal structural survival models: a study on estimator performance. Abstract Book ISCB44–44th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Milan (IT), August 2023.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2022). Causal effects of chemotherapy dose intensity on survival outcome through Marginal Structural Models. Abstract Book ISCB43–43rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), August 2022.
Gregorio C, Spreafico M, Ieva F (2022). Personalized optimal treatment timing through multi-state modelling and microsimulation. Abstract Book ISCB43–43rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), August 2022.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2022). Causal effects of chemotherapy regimen intensity on survival outcome through Marginal Structural Models. Abstract Book IBC 2022–31st International Biometric Conference, Riga (Latvia), July 2022.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2021). Modelling the effect of longitudinal latent toxicity profiles on survival: an application to osteosarcoma. Abstract Book ISCB42–42nd Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Lyon (France), July 2021.
Spreafico M, Ieva F, Fiocco M (2020). Including dynamic covariates in survival models via Functional Data Analysis: an application to osteosarcoma. Abstract Book ISCB41–41st Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Krakow (Poland), August 2020. ISBN: 9788394276072.
Ieva F, Spreafico M, Burba D (2020). Modeling the effect of dynamic covariates on time-to-event processes via Functional Data Analysis. Abstract Book ISCB41–41st Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Krakow (Poland), August 2020. ISBN: 9788394276072.
Spreafico M, Ieva F (2019). Investigating the role of Proteinuria in Renal Disease: a real-world clinical case study. Abstract Book ISCB40–40th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Leuven (Belgium), July 2019. ISBN: 9789461652874.
Abstracts for clinical congresses
Abstracts for clinical congresses
Kobbeltvedt MR, Lobmaier I, Spreafico M, et al. (2024). 1737P A comparison of the risk prediction models Sarculator and PERSARC in patients with localized soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities and trunk wall. Annals of Oncology, 25(Suppl. 2):S1039. doi: 10.1016/j.annonc.2024.08.1829
[Abstract Book of the ESMO Congress 2024, Barcelona (ES), 13-17 September 2024.]Tentori CA, Gregorio C, Robin M, et al. [including Spreafico M] (2023). Clinical and Genomic-Based Decision Support System to Define the Optimal Timing of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS). Blood, 142(1):197.
[65th ASH Annual Meeting and Exposition, San Diego (USA), December 2023; ASH-Frank Toohey Abstract Achievement Award for Myelodysplastic Syndromes]Cassia MA, Ieva F, Spreafico M, et al. (2021). Predire l’outcome nella nefrite lupica: il ruolo dell’andamento della proteinuria o della singola misurazione attraverso gli alberi di regressione. Giornale Italiano di Nefrologia, 38(S78):198–199.
[Book of abstract 62° Congresso Nazionale SIN (Società Italiana di Nefrologia), Rimini (IT), October 2021]
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