Working Papers
Challenging the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Can Monetary Policy Affect the Natural Rate of Unemployment?
Abstract. Does monetary policy affect the natural rate of unemployment? Our findings suggest that a contractionary monetary policy causes a persistent increase in the unemployment rate. On the contrary, the natural rate of unemployment shows little to no movement but then it starts increasing, taking this delayed response as evidence of hysteresis effects.
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The Role of Tourism in Albania's Economic Development
Abstract. This paper studies the macroeconomic dynamics of tourism in Albania through the application of a VAR model. The analysis shows that a positive shock in the growth rate of international tourist arrivals leads to an increase in real GDP, a temporary rise in the inflation rate, and a decline in the unemployment rate.
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Causal Dynamics of Unemployment and Economic Growth: Okun's Law in the Albanian Economy
Abstract. This paper examines the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Albania using Okun’s Law. Using annual data from 1980 to 2021, we estimate both the gap version and the first-difference version of the Law. The gap version reveals a coefficient estimate of -0.25, indicating a negative relationship between cyclical unemployment and output gap. Instead, the first-difference version yields a coefficient estimate of -0.15 which turns out insignificant after using robust standard errors. Additionally, we conduct a Johansen cointegration test, which suggests that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP and the unemployment rate in Albania.
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Work in Progress
Geopolitical Risks and Inflation Tail Risks in the Euro Area
Labor Market Risk and Inflation Tail Risk