Research


Working papers

Lessons from the application of the instrumental variable (IV) research design to sudden immigration shocks  (Submitted)

Abstract: The Instrumental Variable (IV) approach is commonly used to solve the endogeneity of migrants' decisions on where to locate. Using the example of the Venezuelan migration shock to Peru, I use the shift-share IV approach to show that a sudden migration shock cannot be predicted by past migration simply because past migration is little or insignificant. When there is no historical previous influx of migrants to the destination location, I encourage contributors to the migration literature to report detailed statistical analyses of instrumental variables.

The Venezuela diaspora: Evidence from the Peruvian labor market  (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of a 7.5% increase of the 2017 working-age population due to the unprecedented inflow of Venezuelan immigrants on Peruvian employment and wages in Lima and Callao. The Peruvian labor market's main features are (1) a large informal sector with only 28% of workers covered by employer health insurance, and (2) a relatively low-skilled workforce, two-thirds of whom have obtained a high school degree or less (INEI, 2018). Using a difference-in-difference approach, I compare the labor market outcomes in high-immigrant and low-immigrant neighborhoods between 2014 and 2018. Findings show that on average employment is 2 percentage point greater and 2% weekly wages fewer in high-immigration neighborhoods than low-immigration areas after 2017. These effects on Peruvian labor market outcomes are driven by the formal sector and primarily affect low-skilled Peruvians. The results imply that the immigration shock did not crowd out Peruvian-born employment, nor the less skilled workers who usually are also constrained by the minimum wage policy.

 Paper presentations:

Long-Lasting Effects of Exposure to Bible Translations: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (With Vinicius Oakada Da Silva, Abigail Stocker, and Rebecca Thornton) (New revise draft coming soon )

 

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of early life exposure to Bible translations on education. To estimate causal effects and avoid issues related to selection into translation and mission location, we use the timing of translation relative to an individual's year of birth to compare educational outcomes across cohorts of individuals within language groups with and without exposure to a Bible translation in their mother-tongue language. We analyze data from a representative sample of approximately 75,000 adults in 13 sub-Saharan African countries using the Demographic and Health Surveys. Our difference-in-differences strategy accounts for the differential timing of Bible translations and the trends in educational outcomes over time within each language group. Individuals born ten years after the first Bible translation are 12 percentage points more likely to be literate later in life and acquire 1.3 additional years of education than those born before the translation. Effects do not vary by proximity to missions (either Catholic or Protestant), distance to a printing press, urban area, or religious faith. We provide the first causal evidence of the impact of Bible translations on education.

Five Decades of Early Marriage in the Developing World (With Robert Jensen, Abigail Stocker, and Rebecca Thornton)


Abstract: We document five decades of early marriage among women and men in 24 developing countries. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we examine trends in early marriage and its relationship with well-being, domestic violence, women's roles in the household, and views on women's status. We find that rates of early marriage among women decreased from 40% to 30% on average and rates among men remained constant between 2% and 10%. Boys and girls who marry before 18 have less education and a lower age at first birth. Girls who marry before 18 have less influence on household spending and decision-making and are more likely to view domestic and sexual violence as justified. Boys who marry before 18 are more likely to justify perpetuating domestic violence. Both men and women who marry early are poorer, but there are no significant differences in working status by age of marriage.


 Conferences: 

Seminars

Work in progress

How do political cycles affect education in a middle-income country? Evidence from Peruvian local elections and the school's principal under school choice (With Yue Bao and Mateo Fernandez)

Extended Abstract (Submitted at the 2024 AAEA Annual Meeting): School principals play a significant role in teaching efficacy and student outcomes (e.g., Branch et al., 2012; Dhuey and Smith, 2014; Liebowitz and Porter, 2019). Yet, the local government might affect the public good provision of education in a context where they can select school principals. While the changes in educational spending might not change when a new incumbent barely wins a municipality (Aragón & Pique, 2020), mayors might affect school quality through principal appointees after winning an election. In this paper, we study the extent of the political cycle’s influence on a school’s principal with political appointments and parents’ response to this type of principal. 

The education market and mayor election timing across Peru provide an exciting scenario to answer the research question on local political cycles and education. First, contrary to the US public education that restricts the options to parents, in Peru, there is no geographic restriction to send a kid to a district outside the one where he lives. Thus, Peruvian public education offers less restrictive school choices than the US, allowing for more geographic competition across neighborhoods (Urquiola, 2016). On average, 11% of students switched between schools annually between 2016 and 2018, indicating that parents are sensible to change kids easily. Second, mayor elections at the municipality level in Peru do not have term limits that might affect policy outcomes differently (Aragón & Pique, 2020).

We present two empirical analyses. First, we follow a sharp Regression Discontinuity (RD) design using data from district municipalities and the Census of Education between 2004 and 2012. In this period, Peru has two mayoral elections across municipalities in 2006 and 2010 (mayor terms last four years). We compare the probability that school principals have a political appointment in a city where the incumbent barely won or lost. Second, after identifying schools with new political principals, we exploit student records information to analyze changes in school diversity. After a school’s principal is politically selected, we show changes in the parents’ background (mothers’ educational attainment) and document a fall in the diversity of students’ nationality at the school level. This last result suggests that the political cycle can affect the parents’ choices of schools and student’s environment when the mayor influences the management of a school.


Conference papers (Peer-reviewed)


Prediccion la pobreza en Argentina usando Random Forest

(With Bruno Cardinale Lagomarsino and Cristian Chagalj)

Anales. 51st Annual Reunion, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política, 2016.

 

Informalidad y eficiencia de las firmas

Anales. 50th Annual Reunion, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política, 2017

 

Non-Peer-reviewed publication

 

Big data y comercio electrónico: desafíos para la integración

With Walter Sosa Escudero

Integración y Comercio. 21, no. 42: p. 166-178. 2017