Abstract: The Instrumental Variable (IV) approach is commonly used to solve the endogeneity of migrants' decisions on where to locate. Using the Venezuelan migration shock to Peru between 2016 and 2018 as an example, I compare the first-stage estimates of different shift-share instruments commonly used in the IV approach. I show that in this example a sudden migration shock cannot be predicted by past migration simply because past migration is little or insignificant. In a globalized world, when there is no historical previous influx of migrants to the destination location and mass migration, I encourage contributors to the migration literature to report detailed statistical analyses of the first stage using the instrumental variable approach or pursue other identification strategies.
Abstract: This research note documents trends and patterns in five decades of early marriage among women and men using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys in 24 developing countries. We present trends in early marriage for individuals born from 1950 to 1995, finding that rates of early marriage decreased from 40% to 30% for women, while the rate of early marriage for men stayed consistently below 10% across cohorts. We correlate age of marriage with age of first childbirth, spousal age gap, completed years of education, wealth, and employment status, showing earlier marriage is associated with younger ages of first births and completing less education. Men and women who marry early are poorer, but there are no large differences in working status by age of marriage.
Conferences:
Population Association of America (PAA) 2023 - April 13, 2023
Seminars
Centros de Estudios para el Desarrollo Humano - Universidad de San Andres - Septiembre 2023
Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of early life exposure to mother-tongue Bible translations in the 1980s on adult educational outcomes. We analyze data from a sample of approximately 75,000 adults in the Demographic and Health Surveys in 13 sub-Saharan African countries. Our difference-in-differences strategy compares educational outcomes within and across ethno-linguistic groups and accounts for the differential timing of Bible translations and trends in outcomes over time. Individuals born ten years after the first-known Bible translation for their ethno-linguistic group have an 11 percentage point increase in the likelihood of being literate as adults, a gain of 1.2 years of education, and a 17 percentage point gain in the likelihood of completing primary school. Effects do not vary greatly by gender or by regional prevalence of Muslim faith. We discuss possible mechanisms underlying our results, finding evidence of the potential importance of complementarities with inputs concentrated around historical missions.
Conferences :
Comparative International Education Society (CIES) - March 2023
Southern Economic Association - 93th Annual Meeting - November 2023
Asociacion Argentina de Economia Politica - LVIII Annual Meeting - November 2023 - Slides
Seminars
Inequality, Demography, Health, and Religion (IDHR) workshop at Baylor University (2022), Collaborative for Econometrics and Integrated Development Studies (CEIDS) seminar (2023), Department of Economics at UNLP (Argentina) - March 2023, Department of Economics at Universidad de San Andres - August 2023, Department of Economics at UNT - September 2023. CREDO Seminar virtual (March 8, 2024)
Abstract: Recidivism remains one of the most persistent and costly challenges for criminal justice systems globally. This paper presents a comprehensive, three-pronged approach to understanding recidivism in Latin America, using Argentina as a case study. First, we conduct an exhaustive literature review to explore the economic, institutional, and social determinants of recidivism, with a particular focus on factors relevant to the Latin American context. Second, we leverage over two decades of administrative prison data from Argentina to characterize recidivism patterns and identify key risk factors. Employing machine learning models, we predict the likelihood of reoffending, shedding light on the relative importance of various predictors. Third, we discuss how introducing AI-driven recidivism predictions could benefit key stakeholders (such as judges, the prison system, and policymakers) as well as examine the practical challenges of applying predictive models in real-world policy environments, including institutional constraints, data limitations, and ethical considerations.
Research Proposal selected by IDB call for Research Proposals: "The Role of AI and Digitalization to Promote Growth and Equity in Latin America and the Caribbean" (A Research Network Project, RG-K1198)
Abstract: This paper studies the effect of a 7.5% increase of the 2017 working-age population due to the unprecedented inflow of Venezuelan immigrants on Peruvian employment and wages in Lima and Callao. The Peruvian labor market's main features are (1) a large informal sector with only 28% of workers covered by employer health insurance, and (2) a relatively low-skilled workforce, two-thirds of whom have obtained a high school degree or less (INEI, 2018). Using a difference-in-difference approach, I compare the labor market outcomes in high-immigrant and low-immigrant neighborhoods between 2014 and 2018. Findings show that on average employment is 2 percentage point greater and 2% weekly wages fewer in high-immigration neighborhoods than low-immigration areas after 2017. These effects on Peruvian labor market outcomes are driven by the formal sector and primarily affect low-skilled Peruvians. The results imply that the immigration shock did not crowd out Peruvian-born employment, nor the less skilled workers who usually are also constrained by the minimum wage policy.
Conferences:
LVII Annual Meeting - Argentine Association of Political Economy (AAEP) - 2022
Population Association of America (PAA) - 2023 - Poster here
Seminars
Economics Seminar Series at UCEMA (Argentina) - 2022
Media
Ceteris Paribus Podcast (in Spanish) by Angel Alvaro at Penn Initiative for Study of Markets - Available on YouTube and Spotify
With Walter Sosa Escudero
Integración y Comercio. 21, no. 42: p. 166-178. 2017