Works in Progress
This paper develops a quantitative framework where unprecedented shifts in credit conditions are a source of optimistic beliefs about future house prices during the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s.
With Ellis W. Tallman. Journal of Financial Stability. Volume 17, April 2015, Pages 22-34.
Caught between the end of the National Banking Era and the beginning of the Federal Reserve System, the crisis of 1914 provides an example of a banking panic avoided. We investigate how this outcome was achieved by examining data on the issues of Aldrich-Vreeland emergency currency and clearing house loan certificates to New York City institutions.
When Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard in April 1933, he converted what had been effectively real government debt into nominal government debt to open the door to unbacked fiscal expansion. Our evidence does not support the conventional monetary explanation that gold revaluation and gold inflows, which were permitted to raise the monetary base, drove the recovery independently of fiscal actions.
With Ellis W. Tallman. (2019). In O. Feiertag & M. Margairaz (Eds.), Les banques centrales pendant la Grande Guerre (pp. 15-32). Paris, France: Les Presse de Sciences Po.
The Federal Reserve System failed to prevent the collapse of intermediation during the Great Depression (1929-1933) and took action as if it was unaware of policies that should have been taken in the event of widespread bank runs. The National Banking Era panics and techniques to alleviate them should have been useful references for how to alleviate a financial crisis.
Next Steps for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago
Federal Reserve Publications
"Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule?" with Charles Carlstrom. Economic Commentary, September 2015.
"New Rules for Credit Default Swap Trading: Can We Now Follow the Risk," with John Carlson. Economic Commentary, June 2014.
"The Overhang of Structures Before and Since the Great Recession," with Filippo Occhino. Economic Commentary, April 2014.
"Labor's Declining Share of Income and Rising Inequality," with Filippo Occhino. Economic Commentary, September 2012.